Caleb Wilfinger
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NFL Week 4 has come and gone, and we learned a bit more about the top teams in the league this week. The Miami Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa took a step back and saw their odds regress in their respective categories after a blowout loss at Buffalo, while players like Josh Allen and CJ Stroud saw their odds soar after excellent performances. Let’s take a look at the odds and current standings for the MVP and Offensive Rookie of the Year with my best bet for each market ahead of the Week 5 schedule. You can also check out our NFL picks for all of this week’s matchups.
NFL Most Valuable Player
It’s nearly the same quarterbacks from Week 4 with one notable shift in odds. Most notably, Josh Allen is now a slight favorite for the MVP award while Christian McCaffrey, Lamar Jackson and Brock Purdy continue to rise up the list.
NFL MVP Odds
Josh Allen +400
Tua Tagovailoa +500
Patrick Mahomes +550
Jalen Hurts +750
Lamar Jackson +1000
Justin Herbert +2000
Christian McCaffrey +2000
Brock Purdy +2000
Trevor Lawrence +2500
Dak Prescott +3000
NFL MVP Best Bet: Christian McCaffrey (+2000)
The window to bet on Josh Allen was a week ago, as the Bills quarterback turned in a terrific game in what was a dominant Buffalo victory on a big stage. Following the win, the Bills became the de-facto team at the top of the AFC standings. Therefore, Allen’s odds have shortened from +800 to +400, making him a slight favorite in this competitive market. Allen’s odds should only get shorter and shorter as the Bills continue to win, but there should be opportunities to bet on the Bills gunslinger for MVP down the road once the schedule toughens up.
I can’t back Allen at the current price, as the value has been zapped from his odds. However, if you’re looking for a different route, Christian McCaffrey at +2000 is excellent value for a special talent who has arguably been the best player in football this season. If the 49ers continue to win, his odds will only get shorter and shorter. I wouldn’t be surprised if his odds were below +1500 after a Week 5 showdown with the Cowboys, especially if the Niners can win that game and remain unbeaten and atop the NFC standings.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
NFL OROY Odds
The same few players remain at the top of the list, and it appears like this award will likely be a 3-man race between CJ Stroud, Bijan Robinson and Rams wideout Puka Nacua. However, there are a few other contenders that could snatch this award. Let’s take a look at the current odds.
CJ Stroud +250
Puka Nacua +425
Bijan Robinson +450
De’Von Achane +450
Anthony Richardson +600
Zay Flowers +1800
Jordan Addison +2200
Jahmyr Gibbs +2800
NFL OROY Best Bet: CJ Stroud (+250)
It’s not often that I’d recommend betting on the favorite in this market, especially one that is this competitive. However, it’s hard to ignore what CJ Stroud is doing in Houston in his first month of NFL action. Through his first 4 games in a Texans uniform, Stroud has thrown for 1,212 yards and 6 touchdowns while also not throwing a single interception. With 3 consecutive starts with a passer rating over 100, Stroud continues to be efficient and make great decisions with the football while leading his team to back-to-back wins over the Jaguars and Steelers. The biggest challenger to Stroud is likely Puka Nacua, who has been setting the world on fire for the Rams as a rookie. However, with Cooper Kupp returning, Nacua’s production will certainly take a hit over the remainder of the season. Let’s back Stroud now before his odds get even shorter.
Get our props expert’s best Bears vs Commanders player prop bets for TNF
