NFL Divisional Round picks, predictions & best bets from NFL expert Jared Smith: Mining for gold with the 49ers

One of my favorite weekends on the sports calendar has arrived. The Divisional Round features the cream of the crop — the best 8 teams in the NFL this season — and I think this year’s field is fitting of that distinction. The numbers are also the best they have been all year and as we have discussed in prior playoff columns, doing everything possible to manipulate the market in your favor is my preferred strategy.

“I don’t hate that idea moving forward in the playoffs,” said Westgate Senior Risk Supervisor Casey Degnon. “It definitely feels like there is less sharp action involved on the spreads at this point in the week compared to past weeks. Teasers, props, derivatives are all options, and I also like live betting this time of year depending on the situation.”

Check out all of our NFL picks for the Divisional Round

Teaser Time: Finding value with postseason teasers

This is not rocket science; it’s actually quite simple. The NFL is widely regarded as the most efficient market in all of sports betting, and after 19 weeks of data collection the sportsbooks know these teams better than anyone. So if the lines are the most efficient they have been all season in what is considered to be the most efficient market, then it makes sense to me that you can find an edge by moving those lines in your favor — which is exactly what you do with a teaser.

Obviously certain teasers are more valuable than others, with the standard rules being you always try to tease through both key numbers (3 and 7) and also gravitate towards games with relatively low totals so you are getting the most bang for your buck. For example, if you tease a spread 6 points in a game with a total of 40, those points are more valuable than in a game with a total of 50. Simple math, right?

One thing to absolutely avoid is teasing a game through zero. That basically means you’re making the underdog a favorite, or vice versa. The reason why teasing through zero is taboo is because games can’t land on zero, so you’re paying to move the line through a number that has zero chance of being landed on. It’s the equivalent of paying for a dozen donuts but only getting 11 in the box.

The other thing to keep in mind when betting teasers is the price. Here in Las Vegas, there are a couple shops in town that still offer -120 on a standard 6-point NFL teaser — which is fair value. However, some of the sharper shops have priced them upwards of -130 or -140. I would never bet a teaser at that price, but I also think it’s fair to say certain sportsbooks raising the price of teasers only validates my opinion that these are decent bets — especially in the playoffs when the lines are at their sharpest.

Last year I asked Circa oddsmaker Jeffrey Benson about teasers, and he gave me a very informative answer about how his shop prices them compared to the rest of the market in addition to overall insight about betting teasers properly.

In this week’s column I will analyze all 4 Divisional Round games and just like usual offer my best bets at the end in my portfolio, which you will notice is very teaser heavy.

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Divisional Round market update: What key factors are impacting line movement?

Jaguars at Chiefs, Saturday 4:30 pm ET

This is a rematch of a game from Week 10, when the Chiefs won 27-17 despite turning it over twice and being the victim of a surprise onside kick to begin the game. That means Jacksonville basically stole 3 possessions but still allowed 486 total yards, with Patrick Mahomes completing 26 of 35 passes for 331 and 4 touchdowns to 4 different receivers.

Kansas City was never really pushed in that game, and it’s fair to question whether or not Jacksonville has evolved enough on defense since then to stay within arms length.

“Yeah, the Chiefs are very popular among teasers and parlays this week,” Degnon commented. “Slightly more tickets and straight bets on the dog but we haven’t budged off the opener of 8.5. I think the Chiefs are too much on offense for the Jags to pull the upset but I’m not laying the points.

At the time of publication you can still find the Chiefs hovering around 8.5-point favorites in the market, which means there is still significant teaser value through both key numbers down to 2.5. My gut says this spread reaches 9 or 9.5 by Saturday, which would protect the sportsbooks from any further teaser liability.

The only other angle I can offer from a betting perspective is Travis Kelce props. The Jaguars are 32nd in DVOA against tight ends this season and really struggled to defend Gerald Evertt last week (7 targets, 6 rec, 109 rec yds, 1 TD). Kelce has also been money in the playoffs with at least 7 targets and 95 receiving yards in 6 straight playoff games. He has also scored in 5 of the last 6, as he seems to be Mahomes’ security blanket in the red zone.

The best way to play it would be to bet the yardage prop over and perhaps an anytime touchdown, or parlay them together — whichever tickles your fancy more. Neither of those rise to the level of a best bet, but they certainly can be a fun way to play this game if you don’t have access to a relatively cheap teaser market.

Check out our Jaguars vs Chiefs predictions

Giants at Eagles, Saturday 8:15 pm ET

The Giants offense looked like “The Greatest Show on Turf” last week in Minnesota, registering a 68% success rate on early-down drop-backs, with Daniel Jones chucking it all over the yard. I think the vibes will be very different this week against an Eagles defense that excels in defending the pass. Philly leads the NFL in EPA/drop-back this season and has 4 players up front with at least 10 sacks.

To me Jalen Hurts’ health is the big x-factor in this game. He’s had the bye to rest the shoulder and isn’t carrying an official injury designation into this game, so the Eagles are trying to paint a picture of perfect health. But he did not play well in the season finale against the Giants and even admitted afterwards he still felt pretty banged up, so it’s very fair to hypothesize that whatever was ailing him will take more than 2 weeks to fully heal and will be less than 100% in this game.

This will also be Hurts’ 2nd game in the last 5 weeks, so even if he is relatively healthy, rust and timing could be a factor — especially in a pressure-packed playoff environment. I think we’ll know early on how he feels based on how many designed runs head coach Nick Sirianni is calling for him. Hurts averaged 11 yards per carry and scored a rushing touchdown against this Giants defense back in Week 14. If he is aggressive and effective on the ground, I think Philly wins easily.

“I don’t know about easily, but I do like the Eagles in a teaser, as well,” Degnon noted. “Giants are seeing more love from the public right now, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the ML parlay liability started piling up on Philly by the time they kick off Saturday night. As long as they can establish the run somewhat, I think Hurts will be fine because then you can start having some easy throws off the play action. We’ve taken some sharp money on PHI -7 and over 47.”

Before we likely say farewell until next season, let’s give this Giants team their flowers. Head coach Brian Daboll has had an immeasurable impact in a very short period of time and deserves to win Coach of the Year. The Giants’ offense finished the regular season 9th in EPA/play, a truly impressive feat considering the lack of skill position talent on the roster, and overall inconsistency surrounding the play of Jones. None of those things mattered this season. Daboll’s offensive scheme combined with Wink Martindale’s experience coaching defense and Mike Kafka taking the reins as the play-caller has been the perfect elixir to some truly disappointing seasons for Big Blue.

The prop angle I like in this game would be Jones under passing yards at somewhere around 220. Philly held him to 169 yards passing in Week 14, and overall have been lights out defending the pass this season. Game script could be what ruins this, if the Eagles take a big early lead and Jones is forced to throw for much of the night. I think in Daboll’s ideal world he will keep things on the ground as much as possible with designed runs for Jones paired with Saquon Barkley left, right and center. The short passing game has been the weakness for the Eagles’ secondary this season, which is an ideal situation for Jones to stay under the total since the Giants’ receivers aren’t skilled enough to create the necessary YAC to go over. I would also target all of the Giants’ receivers to stay under their yardage props. I don’t have a specific angle on one or the other, so if you bet this then be sure to sprinkle on all 3 (Hodgins, James, Slayton) — which are all hovering somewhere in the mid-40s.

Check out Giants vs Eagles predictions

Bengals at Bills, Sunday 1:00 pm ET

What an emotional game this will be, and could mark the return to the field for Damar Hamlin, which means there won’t be a dry eye in Orchard Park — or in my living room.

As for the game itself, the first thing that stood out to me about this handicap was the total — which dropped to 48 by Monday morning shortly after opening around 50 on Sunday night. There’s been some buyback on the over since, but I think it painted a pretty clear picture of what the sharps were seeing early on, and that was weakness with the Bengals’ offense — especially the offensive line.

It will be a patchwork front for Cincinnati in this game, with backups all over the line including both tackles and at right guard. None of the replacements graded out well in Sunday’s Wild Card win over the Ravens, but fortunately they are facing a Bills defensive line this week that is one notch below where Baltimore was last week.

The reason why I think the move towards the Bills and Under might be a bit overstated is simply the Joe Burrow adjustment factor. Cincy’s offensive line being bad is not a new storyline and was talked about a lot during Cincinnati’s run to the Super Bowl last January, most notably after the infamous game in which Burrow was sacked 9 times in the Divisional Round win over Tennessee.

But this season Burrow has adjusted. He has the 2nd-shortest time to throw rate of any QB in the league (2.35), just barely behind Tom Brady (2.28) — who is first in that category. He is also taking fewer sacks per game, especially over the back half of the season — a big reason why Cincinnati hasn’t lost since Halloween. So if Burrow is getting the ball out quick, then it will put less emphasis on his makeshift offensive line holding up for long stretches in protection.

Meanwhile, on the other side you have a very volatile situation brewing with Josh Allen — who had a season high 7 big time throws against the Dolphins last week but also committed 3 turnover-worthy plays (the 3rd most he has had in any game all year). I don’t think Allen has regressed as a QB, but it’s fair to say he doesn’t have full faith in new OC Ken Dorsey and may be trying to do too much. It’s also worth noting that former Bills OC Brian Daboll was the play-caller in Buffalo since Allen’s rookie year in 2018 before leaving for the Giants’ HC job this offseason. Daboll is a gifted offensive mind and I don’t blame Allen for not trusting Dorsey as much.

All in all, I see value with the Bengals at their current price — but even more so in the teaser market. Even though we can’t move them through both key numbers, we can still move through 7 and the secondary keys of 6 and 10.

“(I) like Cincy in a tease, as well,” added Degnon. “I lean to them at 5.5 also but like you said the Oline injuries give me cause for pause. We’ve seen some respected bettors take +5 earlier in the week as well as over 49.5.”

I didn’t really see a prop angle I liked in this game except for Allen’s rushing attempts and yards — which always seem to be more plentiful when the stakes get higher. Finally, I’ll leave you with a trend from our pal ClevTA; he pointed out that the Bengals haven’t lost by more than 3 points in 21 straight games with Ja’Marr Chase in the lineup.

Check out our Bengals vs Bills predictions

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Divisional Round best bet: 49ers -3.5 (-110)

Sunday’s climax is shaping up to be quite an affair between 2 of the most storied franchises in NFL history. When I first saw this line drop I was a bit surprised it was so low. I really thought San Francisco would be at least a 5 or 6-point favorite in this spot at home. But Dallas has commanded a lot of respect in the market this week, and rightfully so following its impressive road win over Tampa Bay on Monday night.

“Yeah, I saw a couple places actually open -4.5 but they came down to 3.5/4 pretty quick,” added Degnon. “We opened at -3.5 but have moved up a half with the market. It will close around there for sure, hard to say exactly what number but won’t be too different from where we’re at right now. The public is all over SF so far but I’m sure we’ll see some Dallas love sometime here before Sunday afternoon. We also took some sharp money over 46. I’m probably staying off this game, but I do agree that the niners ground game will be key to keep those guys off Purdy.”

Not having Casey’s approval definitely makes me less bullish on this pick, and I always appreciate his candor when we go back and forth on games, but let me make my case for San Francisco anyways so the people can decide for themselves if they want to fade or follow me into an abyss of maroon and gold.

Brock Purdy has been an absolute revelation. Not only does his turnover-worth play rate drop when facing pressure this season, but his big-time throw rate also actually goes up. Those are remarkable metrics for a 7th-round rookie who barely finished his final college season above .500 at Iowa State.

Some of it can be attributed to the offense he plays in, and the mastermind pulling the strings. San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal with names like Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Ayuik roaming the turf. He also has a top-notch offensive line with a healthy Trent Williams anchoring the left tackle spot.

But the real matchup within the matchup here is how Shanahan schemes up a game plan against his old boss Dan Quinn. Shanahan was the OC in Atlanta for 2 seasons while Quinn was the HC. They have battled a bit over the years since, with Shanahan getting the best of Quinn in the NFC Divisional Round last year when the 49ers beat the Cowboys. However, Dallas’ defense played relatively well in that game — especially against the run — and I can see that being a priority again in this week’s matchup.

The real key here is Purdy. If he continues to play turnover-free football and well beyond his years, I don’t see a path to Dallas winning this game. Dak Prescott played a perfect game against the Bucs last week posting his highest QBR of the season. While Purdy has been steady during his relatively short stint in the NFL, Prescott has been anything but — hovering near the top of the league lead in turnover-worthy plays despite missing several games due to injury.

I think both defenses are mirror images of each other. Obviously the Dallas pass rush is elite, but the 49ers stop the run better than anyone in the NFL — which is a big focal point of the Cowboys’ offense. Both are relatively weak in the secondary and have been particularly susceptible to good passing offenses over the back half of the season. If both defenses cancel each other out in terms of scheme and talent, then this game will come down to which QB makes the fewest mistakes. It’s crazy to admit, but I trust Purdy over Prescott.

Check out our Cowboys vs 49ers predictions

Divisional Round portfolio:

49ers -3.5 -110 (risk 3.3u at Circa)
6-pt teaser -120: Eagles -1.5, Bengals +11.5 (risk 2.4u at Caesars)
6-pt teaser -120: Chiefs -2.5, Bengals +11.5 (risk 2.4u at Caesars)
6-pt teaser -120: Eagles -1.5, Chiefs -2.5 (risk 2.4u at Caesars)

NFL 2022 best bets: 10-9 (52.6%) -0.47u (-1.0% ROI)
NFL 2022 column: 34-33-1 (50.7%) -5.62u (-3.8% ROI)