Welcome to daily fantasy football, Pickswise Nation. For those who haven’t yet dipped their toes into the DFS pool, allow me to introduce myself. My name is Howard Bender and I have been working in the fantasy sports industry for more than 20 years. I am the head of fantasy sports content for Fantasy Alarm and DFS Alarm as well as a bi-weekly columnist for the New York Post. We’ve enjoyed tremendous success over the years, but this NFL season has been one of our best as our Playbook and Showdown write-ups have already brought in a $1,000,000 winner on FanDuel, as well as several others who have enjoyed six-figure wins. We promote the process and teach you to be a better DFS player and that has certainly been the case this year. Welcome to the #FAmily…
Tuesday Night Football features what should be a fantastic battle from the NFC West as the Seattle Seahawks fly south to take on the Los Angeles Rams in a game that could help determine the division winner with just three weeks left to play. While not technically eliminated from the playoffs, the Seahawks are more likely looking to play spoiler here with a victory, but not having their top offensive weapon in Tyler Lockett could prove difficult. Meanwhile the Rams find themselves at full-strength offensively and that, in the end could prove too much for the Seahawks. If you’re playing the showdown slate, the lean should be towards the Rams receivers, but don’t go counting out Russell Wilson just yet.
MVP/Captain
Cooper Kupp, WR LAR
The last time Kupp faced the Seahawks, he posted seven catches for 92 yards on 10 targets. He did not get into the end zone, but it’s difficult to believe Seattle is going to blank him twice. Kupp is coming off back-to-back 100-yard efforts and has a touchdown in each. Stafford will lean heavily on him as always and he should pay off if you can afford his price tag.
Matthew Stafford, QB LAR
He’ll be incredibly popular today as the Seahawks are allowing the most passing yards per game (278.9) with 18 passing touchdowns allowed on the season. Opposing quarterbacks have posted a 94.3 passer rating against them and Stafford has an array of weapons to throw it all over the field. We do expect the Rams to run the ball a little more now that they have both Darrell Henderson and Sony Michel in the backfield, but we all know how Sean McVay likes to run his offense. Stafford should earn his keep.
Russell Wilson, QB SEA
Wilson comes in as a decent contrarian option as few people are ready to trust him despite three-straight games with two touchdowns and at least 230 passing yards. Barring any last-minute changes, he’s likely to be without his favorite target, Tyler Lockett, but still has plenty of weapons at his disposal. Perhaps Lockett’s absence helps restore the once great on-field relationship he shared with DK Metcalf and the two ride off together into the sunset with an upset victory in hand.
Other Plays
Odell Beckham, WR LAR
Beckham cleared the COVID protocol and was activated a few days ago, so he’s had more time to practice with Stafford leading into this game. He’s seen 22 targets over the last three games and has turned them into 13 catches for 181 yards and three touchdowns. Given some of the struggles this Seattle secondary has seen over the course of the season, we’re going to look for a fourth-straight game with a touchdown tonight.
Van Jefferson, WR LAR
The 25-year-old has really developed into a strong, reliable receiver for Stafford and his versatility allows him to line up both on the outside and in the slot. The Rams are doing a great job moving him around and expanding his route tree which has paid strong dividends in the form of 11 catches for 192 and three touchdowns over his last three games. Expect him to see his usual target share and provide you with solid production.
Rashaad Penny, RB SEA
Many will flock to Penny this week due to his impressive 137-yard, two-touchdown performance last week, but keep in mind that this match-up is going to be a tough one. Will he get shut down completely? No. But the Rams have allowed barely 100 yards per game on the ground this season. However, where Penny could be effective is both at the goal line and if the Seahawks can get him the ball out in space. The Rams have allowed 15 rushing touchdowns this season and they do rank 22nd in DVOA against running back pass-plays.
DK Metcalf, WR SEA
Without Lockett, Wilson is going to have to rekindle his relationship with Metcalf if the Seahawks are going to want to be competitive, let alone win this game. The two have seemed off all season long, but perhaps a few practices without Lockett can help turn things around. Hard to say how chalky he’ll be, but for this price, I am going to have more than just a few shares in my lineups.
Darrell Henderson, RB LAR
Henderson was activated from the COVID list, but he was also dealing with a quad injury over the past two weeks as well. In that time, Sony Michel impressed to the point where we expect this to be a shared role. We like the match-up as Seattle is allowing 116 rushing yards per game with 11 rushing touchdowns on the season, but Seattle also ranks 31st in DVOA against running back pass-plays which Henderson should see plenty of out of the backfield.
Sony Michel, RB LAR
Michel did a real nice job with the volume he saw over the last two weeks, averaging 22 carries for 100 yards per game with one touchdown. He’s certainly done enough to earn a share of the carries with Henderson back, but just how much of a share is going to depend on game flow and how effective Henderson is having battled both a quad issue and COVID. He carries some risk if using him for your lineups.
Gerald Everett, TE SEA
The Rams do a very good job at guarding the tight end, but with the likely loss of Lockett, Everett could see some extra targets come his way. The biggest knock on him are his fumbles, but the Seahawks continue to put their trust in him with five red zone targets over the past four games which have yielded two touchdowns in his last three.
Freddie Swain, WR SEA
While the Rams rank 10th in DVOA against slot receivers, they are allowing over 50 receiving yards per game to them. How much work Swain gets is likely to be in proportion to how Wilson and Metcalf jell. If Metcalf returns to “favorite target” status, then Swain is likely to only see a few targets, especially with Jalen Ramsey on him for most of the game. However, if Metcalf does perform well, there’s always a chance the Rams pull Ramsey out of the slot and have him shadow. They haven’t done it at all this season, but you still need to account for the possibility.
Rams D/ST
The Rams have 19 takeaways and 31 sacks on the season, so while the Seahawks don’t really turn the ball over too much, the Rams are going to be in Wilson’s face all night which could lead to some if they can rattle him. Having a guy like Aaron Donald rushing the passer always creates chaos, so invest here if you can.
Dart Throws
D’Wayne Eskridge, WR SEA
Eskridge could be a very interesting dart throw, especially if he fills in the role vacated by Lockett. Like his teammate Swain, he’s only seen a small handful of targets, but if you believe in his abilities, he could work as a nice pivot if you’re stacking Seahawks.
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