Welcome to daily fantasy football, Pickswise users. For those who haven’t yet dipped their toes into the DFS pool, allow me to introduce myself. My name is Howard Bender and I have been working in the fantasy sports industry for more than 20 years. I am the head of fantasy sports content for Fantasy Alarm and DFS Alarm as well as a bi-weekly columnist for the New York Post. We’ve enjoyed tremendous success over the years, but this NFL season has been one of our best as our Playbook and Showdown write-ups have already brought in a million-dollar winner on FanDuel as well as several others who have enjoyed six-figure wins. We promote the process and teach you to be a better DFS player and that has certainly been the case this year. Welcome to the #FAmily….
Week 9 of the NFL season kicks off with an interesting match-up on Thursday Night Football as the New York Jets head to Indianapolis to take on the Colts. The Jets are flying high (pardon the pun) after last week’s big, upset win over the Cincinnati Bengals while the Colts are looking to turn things around after a heartbreaking overtime loss to their division rivals, the Tennessee Titans. With the Colts favored by 10 points, the expectation is they turn things around against a team that wildly overachieved last week and there is little reason to argue against that notion. Now the question is, how do we best fit that into a winning Showdown lineup?
Captain/MVP
Jonathan Taylor, RB IND
Taylor has been the focal point of the Colts’ offensive game plan and, even with the short week, should continue to see his usual 15 carries against a run defense that ranks 23rd in DVOA and is allowing 115.1 rushing yards per game with 12 rushing touchdowns given up on the season. The Jets also rank 27th in DVOA against running back pass-plays, so expect some designed screens to come his way as well.
Michael Pittman Jr, WR IND
The second-year wideout has really blossomed as of late, scoring four touchdowns in his last four games and posting one 100-yard effort. The Jets secondary has been weak in coverage all year and Pittman has a strong physical advantage over both Bryce Hall and Brandin Echols so you can expect him to rack up some extra yards after the catch.
Jamison Crowder, WR NYJ
The Jets should be in passing mode for the majority of this game which will likely help increase the number of targets Crowder sees in this contest. He’s already averaged between seven and eight thus far and has a plus match-up against slot-corner Kenny Moore, so double-digit targets certainly aren’t out of the question.
Other Picks
Carson Wentz, QB IND
The Colts haven’t needed Wentz to throw too heavily, but he’s still averaging 240.8 passing yards per game and has posted an impressive 14:3 TD:INT mark. With the Jets allowing roughly 275 passing yards per game and opposing quarterbacks posting a strong 102.9 passer rating against them, Wentz should be a solid play tonight.
Mike White, QB NYJ
I debated using White or Crowder as my “Jets captain” because I believe White will have to throw fairly heavily in order to keep the Jets in this game. But I cannot expect another performance like last week’s 400-yard, three-score effort even if the Colts secondary has had its issues. Still, if he can throw for 250 and two scores, he’s returning strong value.
Michael Carter, RB NYJ
The Colts have a fantastic pass-rush and should push White into more check-downs. That should put Carter in a decent place for full-point PPR formats. He might find running room to be difficult against this Colts front-seven, but he’s now leading this backfield in carries and targets and warrants consideration for lineups.
Colts D/ST
The Colts are tied for the league-lead in takeaways with nine interceptions and nine fumble recoveries. They also have 17 sacks on the season for a total loss of 110 yards. Add that to the Jets having the second-most giveaways in the league and we could see some serious points for the Colts, especially if they can score a defensive touchdown.
Mo Alie-Cox, TE IND
He’s the primary pass-catching tight end for the Colts, averaging 4-to-5 targets per game, and faces a Jets pass defense that ranks 23rd in DVOA against the position, allowing an average of 57.6 receiving yards per game. The Jets have also allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends this season.
Dart Throw
Tyler Kroft, TE NYJ
He caught both of his passes last week, one of which went for a touchdown. The Colts have actually given up the fifth-most fantasy points to the tight end position, so if/when the Jets get into the red zone, Kroft should be in White’s sights.
For a more in-depth breakdown and showdown analysis, be sure to check out DFSAlarm.com for all of your daily fantasy sports needs.
