Welcome to daily fantasy football, Pickswise users. For those who haven’t yet dipped their toes into the DFS pool, allow me to introduce myself. My name is Howard Bender and I have been working in the fantasy sports industry for more than 20 years. I am the head of fantasy sports content for Fantasy Alarm and DFS Alarm as well as a bi-weekly columnist for the New York Post. We’ve enjoyed tremendous success over the years, but this NFL season has been one of our best as our Playbook and Showdown write-ups have already brought in a million-dollar winner on FanDuel as well as several others who have enjoyed six-figure wins. We promote the process and teach you to be a better DFS player and that has certainly been the case this year. Welcome to the #FAmily….
Welcome to the NFL Week 13 Thursday Night Football Showdown Slate!
What began as a potentially exciting battle between the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints has now deteriorated into a potential old-school beatdown. Both teams have been reeling, as the Cowboys have lost three of their last four and the Saints have been losers of four straight. But Dallas not only has removed the injury designation for Ezekiel Elliott, but it is also getting back wide receiver Amari Cooper and defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence. Meanwhile, the Saints announced on Thursday that not only will Alvin Kamara sit but they will also be without both of their starting tackles and a key component on their defensive line.
The Saints’ defense is still very capable of holding its own, but this is going to be one of their toughest tests this season. For DFS showdown purposes, the scoring lean will tilt towards Dallas.
MVP/Captain
Dak Prescott, QB, DAL
Even without Marcus Davenport, the Saints’ run defense is elite and will give the Dallas ground game some trouble. That means it’s all going to fall on Prescott, who is in dire need of leading this team to a victory. The Saints have some weaknesses in the secondary, and with Cooper returning the QB is going to have an abundance of targets waiting for him to throw them the ball.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, DAL
The days of Marshon Lattimore being an effective shadow are over, so we don’t expect him to work against Lamb too often tonight. Lamb has been working extremely well out of the slot and that puts him against P.J. Williams, one of the absolute worst corners in the game.
Taysom Hill, QB, NO
This is going to be a tough game for Hill given the offensive line and weapon injuries the Saints are currently enduring. Hill is already notorious for poaching goal-line carries and we wouldn’t expect anything different. If he can also throw effectively, he could be an interesting play at the top.
Other Plays
Michael Gallup, WR, DAL
Gallup tried to be an effective weapon for Dak while Lamb and Cooper were out and showed some fire on Thanksgiving with his 5-catch, 106-yard performance. He’s a solid option at DraftKings with the full-point PPR scoring, but the lack of red-zone targets is a bummer. He could break into the endzone at any point, though, especially if Cooper lags at all tonight.
Amari Cooper, WR, DAL
The lingering effects from COVID hit people differently, so it may look like Cooper is behind by a half-step at times. Still, the Saints deep coverage is vulnerable and Cooper could end up stretching the field if he feels ready to take off.
Tre’Quan Smith, WR, NO
Some might point out that he was quiet on Thanksgiving, but weren’t all the Saints against Buffalo? We’ll have to see what his rapport looks like on the field with Taysom Hill, but Smith did see 20 targets over three games with Trevor Siemian. He does most of his work out of the slot, which is a weakness of the Cowboys. So if he can gain position on Jourdan Lewis, Smith could have a decent night.
Deonte Harris, WR, NO
Harris small, he’s quick and he always looks like he’s going to break a touchdown run on a kick return. The Saints will try to keep him away from Trevon Diggs in coverage, so look for him to try and stretch the field with his speed advantage over Anthony Brown.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, DAL
The big question is just how much work Zeke is going to get in this matchup. He still has the knee issue and the Saints have a fantastic run defense and allow the third-fewest rushing yards per game and in total for the year. Will the Cowboys feed him the rock? My partner in crime Jim Bowden usually has his finger on the pulse of the Cowboys, and he’s thinking 50-60 yards and a touchdown.
Tony Pollard, RB, DAL
He’s going to have a share in the workload; the only question is how much of one. If you’re going to use a Cowboys running back in your lineups, I suggest you split the exposure to 50/50. Pollard is a strong pass-catcher and the Saints rank just 19th in DVOA against running back pass plays.
Mark Ingram, RB, NO
He’ll be the lead back in tonight’s game with Kamara on the shelf, but with Dallas getting back Lawrence it’s only going to get tougher for Ingram. You also have to worry about Hill poaching the goal-line work. I’ve always been a big Ingram fan, but the exposure to him tonight is likely to be minimal.
Dalton Schultz, TE, DAL
The Saints are only allowing about 10 fantasy points per game to the tight end position and rank seventh in DVOA against them. But Schultz remains a strong red-zone target for Dak, and while we may not see a lot of yards he could find his way into the endzone.
Dallas Cowboys D/ST
Lawrence returns, Micah Parsons is a beast, and the Saints have lost both of their starting tackles. Dallas ranks fifth in the league with 19 takeaways and is going to be as opportunistic as possible against a struggling Saints offense.
Dart Throw
Juwan Johnson, TE, NO
This is an interesting dart throw here, as Johnson and Hill had a decent rapport back in the preseason and have been working together quite often on the second team. Johnson is a hybrid wide receiver/tight end playing in the tight end slot. Dallas ranks 18th in DVOA against tight ends and it is giving up just more than 12 fantasy points per game to the position.
For a more in-depth breakdown and showdown analysis, be sure to check out DFSAlarm.com for all of your daily fantasy sports needs.
