Welcome to daily fantasy football, Pickswise Nation. For those who haven’t yet dipped their toes into the DFS pool, allow me to introduce myself. My name is Howard Bender and I have been working in the fantasy sports industry for more than 20 years. I am the head of fantasy sports content for Fantasy Alarm and DFS Alarm as well as a bi-weekly columnist for the New York Post. We’ve enjoyed tremendous success over the years, but this NFL season has been one of our best as our Playbook and Showdown write-ups have already brought in a $1,000,000 winner on FanDuel, as well as several others who have enjoyed six-figure wins. We promote the process and teach you to be a better DFS player and that has certainly been the case this year. Welcome to the #FAmily….
Super Bowl 56 is finally here and that gives us one final opportunity to dip our toes into the NFL DFS pool this season. The Cincinnati Bengals seem to be the public darlings this season, riding to the championship on the swagger of quarterback Joe Burrow. But let’s not count out the Los Angeles Rams, who — according to most pundits — have the better overall team now that they are led by Matthew Stafford on offense and Aaron Donald on the defensive side. No matter which way you lean, it is important to establish your own narrative for the game and choose players for DFS contests that fit your narrative. If you think the quarterbacks and wide receivers dominate this game, then don’t go around using Sony Michel as your dart-throw play. If you’re on the ‘under’ for this game, then get a defense in there. Stick to exactly what you think will happen and use players accordingly. And above all else, have some fun. It’s the Super Bowl, people. Enjoy!
MVP/Captain
Matthew Stafford, QB, LAR
The Rams didn’t trade away all that draft capital to acquire Stafford and just run the ball in the big game, did they? He has thrown for at least 335 yards in each of his last two playoff games, he had seven 300-yard efforts during the regular season and he has thrown for no fewer than two touchdowns in nine of his last 10 games. The Bengals’ secondary has looked good here in the playoffs, but stopping Stafford and his weapons is going to be a tall order.
Joe Burrow, QB, CIN
More like Joe Cool, amirite? The Bengals don’t make it to the Super Bowl without the confidence and subtle swagger of Burrow. The talent is pretty strong, too. He’s been good here in the playoffs so far and seems unfazed by the magnitude of any big moment, but we’re looking for more in this match-up. He’ll have to throw away from wherever Jalen Ramsey is on the field which may make it tough for him to find Ja’Marr Chase, but we have seen him excel using just Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Given the strength of the Rams’ run defense, we could see Burrow eclipse the 300-yard mark with ease.
Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR
While we expect the Cincinnati secondary to bracket Kupp and contain him as much as possible, there’s a reason you’ve asked yourself, “How does this guy always get so wide open?” throughout the regular season and the playoffs. Kupp has surpassed the 100-yard mark in seven of his last nine games and has 10 touchdowns in that span. He and Stafford have been on the same page all season long, so there’s no reason to think this game will be any different.
Other Plays
Joe Mixon, RB, CIN
Mixon may find it tough to gain yards rushing, but I love him in the Super Bowl as a pass-catcher. The best way for Burrow to neutralize the Rams’ pass-rush is through check-downs and designed screens to Mixon. Once he gets the ball out in space, he can rip off chunks of yardage and I’m banking on it playing the over on his 25.5 receiving yards prop. He has averaged six targets per game over his last five and has no fewer than three catches for 27 yards in a game during that span. On the ground he should still see 15 to 20 carries, which is his average for the full season, and let’s not forget a career-high 16 touchdowns for him this year.
Ja’Marr Chase, WR, CIN
I expect Chase to see a lot of Jalen Ramsey in this matchup and when he isn’t dealing with the all-pro cornerback, he is likely to be in bracket-coverage. But before you write him off for your DFS lineups, understand that Burrow is most comfortable when finding Chase downfield. Ramsey can definitely be beaten deep and Chase has been incredibly impressive accumulating yards after the catch. The Chiefs may have stopped his 100 yards per game in the playoffs streak, but he still found the endzone for a critical score. If people are nervous about Ramsey, Chase could end up a fantastic contrarian play.
Tee Higgins, WR, CIN
He is likely to be pretty chalky this weekend, and rightfully so. When Chase is covered, we have seen Burrow turn to Higgins for some outstanding performances. He had more than 100 yards on six catches against the Chiefs and you can’t forget his run of 100-yard performances in four of five games down the stretch during the regular season. If the Rams spend too much time worrying about Chase, Higgins could explode. Remember, if the thunder don’t get ya, then the lightning will!
Odell Beckham, WR, LAR
You can expect a heavy focus by the Bengals’ secondary when it comes to Kupp, which is why I’m a big OBJ fan for this game. He has seen 23 targets during the Rams playoff run and turned them into 19 catches for 236 yards and a touchdown. Something that has been very interesting as well is the number of times Stafford looks for Beckham when he needs a third-down conversion. Once reserved strictly for Kupp, Beckham has stepped in and proven to be incredibly reliable.
Tyler Boyd, WR, CIN
Boyd just might be my favorite player to use this week and he becomes an even bigger “must-use” if tight end C.J. Uzomah (knee) is limited in any way. Burrow loves to attack the middle of the field early on in the game, and he not only uses it to move the chains but also to set up the outside passes downfield. Boyd should be leaned on fairly heavily early on as the Bengals look to exploit the Rams’ linebackers, who are often more concerned with rushing the passer than they are to falling back into coverage.
Cam Akers, RB, LAR
While most people are rightfully staring at the receivers in this game, Akers cannot be forgotten — especially not against a Bengals team that ranked 24th in DVOA against the run this season. He doesn’t seem to be feeling any ill-effects of the Achilles’ injury he suffered back in June, but there is a shoulder issue to keep an eye on this week. He has yet to find the endzone since his return and hasn’t surpassed 55 rushing yards or 40 receiving yards in any of the four games he’s played, but that doesn’t mean they won’t find a way to turn to him if they are inside the green zone at any point.
Tyler Higbee/Kendall Blanton, TE, LAR
If I’m a betting man, and you know I am, I expect Higbee to sit this one out or at the least only see a small handful of snaps. His sprained MCL has kept him out of practices over these last two weeks and Blanton has taken all first-team reps. He took over for the injured Higbee during the divisional round and had two catches for 18 yards and a touchdown. In the conference championship he caught all five of his targets for 57 yards. With Van Jefferson’s knee still seemingly an issue, Blanton could be the DFS surprise no one was expecting but everyone loves.
Los Angeles Rams D/ST
The Rams’ defense is no joke as it boasts names like Aaron Donald, Von Miller, Leonard Floyd and Jalen Ramsey. They had the seventh-most takeaways in the NFL this season and had the third-most sacks. We know there are some struggles on the Bengals’ offensive line as Burrow was sacked 51 times this season and the nine sacks he took in the AFC Championship are fresh in our mind. If your format allows you to use a team-defense, the Rams should make for a strong play no matter the outcome of the game.
Evan McPherson, PK, CIN
If your format permits the use of kickers, then McPherson is an outstanding option. He has a big leg and enough swagger to rival that of his quarterback. We have seen Zac Taylor settle for a lot of field goals throughout the season, including the playoffs, so look for Taylor to take the points when he can and lean on the guy who is 12-for-12 in field goals during the playoffs.
Matt Gay, PK, LAR
The Rams’ kicker is 7-for-9 in field goals during the playoffs and has only missed one extra-point all year long. Sean McVay loves to go for the touchdown, but we could see him play a bit more conservative and take the points when he can to avoid another poor offensive showing during the Super Bowl.
Van Jefferson, WR, LAR
If you’re building multiple lineups, then you may want to splash in a little bit of Jefferson to be contrarian. He has been dealing with a knee issue for a few weeks and hasn’t been a big part of the offensive game-plan, but that could be the zig McVay makes when everyone expects him to zag.
C.J. Uzomah/Drew Sample, TE, CIN
As much as I love Uzomah, I’m a little hesitant this week due to his knee injury. He says he is not missing the biggest game of his life, but he could be limited. If he is, he’s more of a contrarian dart-throw. We know Burrow likes to use him to attack the middle, but without having practiced at all these last two weeks, it’s a risk. As for Sample, he simply isn’t the pass-catcher Uzomah is. He is a fantastic blocker, but his mobility elicits images of a refrigerator with feet. He may be good for a couple of catches, but I’m only using him if building a number of lineups and need to save some salary.
Samaje Perine, RB, CIN
He is a shifty complement to Mixon and is expected to be mixed into the game-plan in a similar fashion to what we’ve seen over the last five games. The 41-yard catch-and-run during the game against the Chiefs is fresh in everyone’s mind, but he is more of a contrarian dart-throw as that one play has been his only highlight over the last six games.
Sony Michel, RB, LAR
His usage rates have gone down significantly with the return of Akers and is not likely to be leaned on too heavily this week. The Bengals’ defensive line is certainly vulnerable and a power-rusher like Michel could have some success here, but will he be given the opportunity? That’s a real tough call to make, so best to reserve for those looking to save salary among a multi-lineup weekend.
Dart Throws
Ben Skowronek, WR, LAR
While tight end Kendall Blanton is more of my favorite low-end guy in this game, Skowronek could find his way into the mix if Jefferson is either limited or even out for this game. He hasn’t seen a target in four games, but if you’re looking for a salary-saver and a way to differentiate yourself from the rest of the herd, he could be an interesting option. Skip him if setting just one or two lineups, but you multi-entry folks shouldn’t completely ignore him.
Darrell Henderson, RB, LAR
Did someone say fresh legs? Yes, Akers is the No. 1 guy in this backfield, and yes Michel did a very good job filling in when needed, but Henderson was the Rams’ go-to- guy early on in the season and he performed exceptionally well. If you think he’s McVay’s secret weapon this week, get him in there!
Pickswise is the home of free NFL Picks and NFL Odds. Check out the latest NFL Prop Bets and NFL Parlays as well as expert NFL Underdog Picks and NFL Computer Picks.
