NFL Picks

Happy Christmas, Pickswise Nation! We’ve got an NFL doubleheader live on Netflix to get excited for, kicking off with the Kansas City Chiefs making the trip to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers. Pittsburgh suffered a setback in the AFC North race as they fell 34-17 to the Ravens last Saturday, but Mike Tomlin’s team should be able to bounce back here. Tomlin’s record as an underdog speaks for itself and, despite losing 2 straight, we should see a spirited performance from the Steelers to give Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs all they can handle. Despite now being 14-1, this Kansas City team continues to look vulnerable and given that they rank bottom 10 in passing yards per attempt while putting up the 2nd-fewest yards per carry, the Steelers are more than capable of keeping the Chiefs in check. Pittsburgh has recorded the 3rd-most interceptions this season and should give Mahomes all he can handle.

While the Steelers offense has stalled over the last couple of weeks, they could be boosted by the return of top wide receiver George Pickens – who said on Monday that he has a “real chance” to play. If Pickens returns, this adds another dimension to Pittsburgh’s passing attack and should inject more life into Russell Wilson and this offense. Wilson has 15 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions this season and with the 2-headed rushing attack of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren stepping up, the Steelers should be able to move the chains. This should be a close game and taking on the Super Bowl champs is always a daunting prospect, but getting Pittsburgh as a home underdog in this spot feels too good to pass up.

Chiefs vs Steelers prediction: Steelers +2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +1.5.

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Defense has been the key to each of these teams’ success this season and that should be on full display here in what figures to be a low-scoring battle. Both offenses are averaging just 4 yards per carry on the ground, which is tied for the 2nd-fewest in the NFL, while the Steelers have the 8th-fewest passing yards. KC has held each of its last 4 opponents to 19 points or fewer, while Pittsburgh has given up the 4th-fewest points in the AFC. While George Pickens’ potential return would be a boost for the Steelers’ offense, the wide receiver is unlikely to be at 100% if he does suit up, and Andy Reid is likely to create a plan to take him out of the game given Pittsburgh’s clear struggles while he has been out. The Chiefs continue to be lackluster on offense and we should see another contest featuring these teams where defense is the name of the game.

Chiefs vs Steelers prediction: Under 43 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It’s been a disappointing 4 weeks in the run game since Isiah Pacheco returned. The duo of Pacheco and Kareem Hunt have failed to sniff 100 yards combined rushing since Pacheco returned from an ankle injury, so it’s been the Patrick Mahomes show. Mahomes is averaging 40.5 pass attempts during that span while the run game struggles. It won’t get any easier for the running back duo versus the Steelers, who rank in the top 10 in yards allowed per carry and rushing yards allowed per game. Instead of fading one of Hunt or Pacheco, we’ll pivot to back Mahomes. Hunt and Pacheco have rushing lines set below 45.5 yards – Accurate lines set by the sportsbooks.

Even with the Chiefs 14-1 record, they have yet to escalate a lead that puts Mahomes and the Chiefs in a run-heavy game script. Mahomes continues to throw when having the lead in the 2nd half. He’s thrown over 20 passes in the 2nd half in 3 of his last 4 games, including surpassing the over of 249.5 passing yards in 3 of his last 5 games. The supposed ankle injury Mahomes sustained over a week ago looks like a thing of the past. But if it hinders him during the short week, look for Mahomes to stay in the pocket and dish out to his reliable and healthy receiver room with Marquise Brown back.

It’s not like Worthy is going to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, but where would the Chiefs’ offense be if they had not traded up to the first round to get him? Not in a good place – that’s for sure. Worthy is the team leader among wide receivers in catches (51), targets (89), yards (559) and touchdowns (5). The former Texas standout has also rushed for 3 TDs, including in Week 15 against Cleveland. He has found the endzone in 4 of the last 9 contests, including once this past week during a 27-19 victory over Houston. Kansas City now faces a Pittsburgh squad that is in the bottom half of the league in passing defense (220.7 yards per game allowed) and has surrendered 19 touchdowns through the air. I will happily back Worthy to score at lofty +250 odds. 

Harris has also scored 5 TDs this season and all 5 have come in the last 10 outings. The 2021 first-round pick failed to deliver a touchdown in either Week 15 or Week 16, but both of those were negative game scripts for Pittsburgh. The Steelers got clobbered by both the Eagles and the Ravens, so their RB1 was limited to a total of 15 rushing attempts in those contests. Fortunately, they now face an opponent that rarely blows teams out. And as a 2.5-point spread suggests, this Christmas Day contest is expected to be competitive. Harris will almost certainly get a lot of touches, especially since sometimes the best defense against K.C.’s offense is to keep the clock moving and force Mahomes to be off the field as long as possible. Count on the home team feeding Harris in the red zone, too. At +170, he also has great value.

The NFL can’t turn away a prime opportunity for viewership and thus we have 2 big AFC matchups on Christmas; the evening finale pitting the Ravens against the Texans. From a psycho-emotional standpoint, it’s tough to know how to handicap these 2 programs. Firstly, we’ve never had a midweek NFL game on Christmas, so we don’t know how either program will respond, although we’re inclined to believe that Houston, surrounded by family and friends all week since they’re at home, will be slightly more distracted. It’s also worth noting that the Texans have now secured the AFC South title and are unlikely to improve on their current #4 seed, while the Ravens are still in a dogfight with the Steelers to win the AFC North.

Unlike the Texans, who lost Tank Dell and haven’t looked impressive in a month (and they barely beat Miami and Jacksonville in recent battles), the Ravens have little to complain about. Baltimore is one of the least injured teams in the NFL and they earned a playoff spot last Saturday, securing their chances at a Lombardi Trophy whether they win the AFC North or not. The Ravens have also had a successful history against the Texans, beating them twice last season (once in the Wild Card round) by a combined score of 59-19. It was one of the only opponents where CJ Stroud looked outmatched and out of sorts in his rookie campaign, and lately Stroud hasn’t been at his best, either. Although he’ll still make exceptional plays on the field, the Texans’ offense just isn’t doing enough. They’ve only surpassed 30 points in 2 contests this season and over 15 games and they qualify as pedestrian (13th in points per game, 19th in yards per game, and 19th in pass yards per game). Injuries to their wide receiver depth are only making matters worse, and although Joe Mixon has been a great addition, the Ravens boast the best run-defense in the NFL (1st in opponent yards per rush – 3.6). Unless Baltimore just doesn’t mentally show up, which would make no sense based on what they’re trying to achieve, nothing should come easy for Houston on Christmas.

On the other end, explosive offenses have given Houston trouble this season, and arguably no offense is as explosive as the one visiting NRG Stadium on Santa’s big day. The Ravens are 1st in yards per play (6.9) and 3rd in points per play, a metric that best displays a team’s ability to score quickly. We imagine Demeco Ryans will have his men amped up for this big matchup, but eventually we expect the dam to break. The Ravens just have too much talent to be kept down for 4 quarters by an unfamiliar opponent. We don’t doubt Stroud’s ability to rise to the occasion, and we imagine the Texans will fight hard at home, but based on the metrics, matchup, and recent history, there’s only one way we can look.

Ravens vs Texans prediction: Ravens -3 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.5.

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Regardless of who wins Christmas Day’s big AFC matchup, both teams are in a really tough spot. Getting just 3 full days of rest in between, both the Ravens and Texans will both travel to Houston and attempt to regroup after very physical matchups last Saturday. The scheduling situation mirrors the short week teams get when they play on Thursday Night Football. Surprisingly, this has had little effect on the average NFL total. The average total per game in the 2024 season is 46.7 on Thursdays, 45.6 overall; a small difference when considering how this game will play out. The average total when contests are played at NRG Stadium, however, is a different story. Battles in Houston average just 43 points per game, and it really should be lower if it wasn’t for a weird, outlier game where the Titans beat the Texans 32-27 in Week 12. Regardless, we like numerical evidence that this will be a low-scoring game since we were already leaning in that direction.

The Ravens’ offense has been explosive most of the season (424 yards per game, 1st), but they certainly have their moments. Better defenses like Kansas City, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia have stifled their production, and the Texans qualify as a top-10 unit (they’re ranked 9th in opponent points per game and top-4 in opponent yards per game, yards per play, and 3rd-down conversion rate).  On the other side, we also like how Baltimore matches up with their foe. CJ Stroud was already without top receiver Stefon Diggs and now he’s without Tank Dell. Baltimore’s defense has issues with many of the same opponents every year (Kansas City, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh), but they’re typically exceptional against all the others. Meanwhile, Houston’s offense has been sputtering for a while, producing just 270 yards and 22 points per game in their past 4 contests. Add in the nerves and emotional toll of a short week during a major holiday, and this intra-AFC battle has all the ingredients of a low-scoring affair.

Ravens vs Texans prediction: Under 47 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 46.

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If you want to bet on this player prop bet then I suggest you be quick! At the time of publishing, Bet365 has a very favorable 252.5 number, while DraftKings is down at 246.5 and FanDuel is more than 10 yards lower at 241.5. There are a lot of factors that suggest CJ Stroud could struggle in this matchup. For starters, he just lost one of his top targets Tank Dell to injury, which means that Nico Collins is effectively the last man standing after Stefon Diggs was injured earlier in the season. Stroud has eclipsed this line just twice in his last 10 games, so it was already asking a lot for him to go over this number even if Dell was healthy.

What’s especially noteworthy however is how much Stroud struggles when under pressure. Although the Ravens’ problems against the pass this season are well-documented, they’ve actually recorded the 2nd-most sacks in the NFL. And when Stroud faces teams with a strong pass-rush, his performances take a dip. He is averaging 232.8 passing yards per game this season, but when he’s come against the Cowboys (257), Vikings (215), Packers (86) and Jets (191), who all rank in the top-half of the league in sack rate, his average drops to 187.25. Baltimore has a ton of motivation in this game and I’m expecting them to bring the heat. There is always the danger of garbage time yards with Baltimore a 5.5-point favorite, but this number feels way to high to pass up.

I’m not thrilled at the -120 price for Joe Mixon to score a touchdown, either. Nonetheless, the Texans find themselves as home underdogs against a Ravens offense that can light up the scoreboard. They’ll look to Joe Mixon in the red zone, especially after Tank Dall is done for the year after a gruesome injury sustained on Saturday against the Chiefs. Mixon is coming off back-to-back subpar games. He failed to net 60 yards on the ground last week on 14 carries. Besides a 20+ yard rush on his 2nd rush attempt, it was not Mixon’s night. The Texans were trailing from the start after a Chiefs touchdown on their opening drive. So, I’d expect the Texans to run Mixon early and often. Mixon’s 11 rushing touchdowns rank him in the top 10 in the NFL.

The sportsbooks have tanked Rashod Bateman’s touchdown price due to his recent performances. He’s scored 4 touchdowns in his last 5 games and leads the wide receiver room in red-zone targets during that span. The +175 price that Bet365 is offering for Bateman to score a touchdown is the main attraction. Every other book is around the +120 range — fine to play there, but the +175 on Bet365 is one I can’t pass up.

The Seattle Seahawks will be trying to remain in playoff contention when they visit the Chicago Bears for a Thursday Night Football showdown in Week 17. Despite 2 consecutive losses, the Seahawks are not playing poorly. Those setbacks came against Green Bay and Minnesota — the latter by only 3 points — and they had previously won 4 in a row. Seattle has struggled to run the ball, but it is facing a Chicago defense that has allowed 134.1 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per attempt. If Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet can establish the ground attack, that should open things up for Geno Smith.

Chicago’s season began with big expectations and also with a 4-2 record, but it has turned into an unmitigated disaster. The Bears came out of their bye week with a Hail Mary loss to Washington and it’s safe to say that they never recovered. They are in the midst of a 9-game losing streak and their 3 most recent setbacks have come by margins of 25, 18 and 17 points. The fact that 2 of their starting offensive linemen are out certainly doesn’t help matters. Count on Seattle winning this one by at least a field goal.

Seahawks vs Bears prediction: Seahawks -3 (-118) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Keenan Allen had his best game as a Bear last week (9 catches, 141 yards, 1 TD), but otherwise, Chicago’s offense does not inspire much confidence. Caleb Williams has underwhelmed as the #1 overall pick even though he has been picked off only 5 times during his rookie campaign. Williams’ rushing numbers have been down a bit over the past month, leaving the Bears’ attack to be increasingly less dynamic. The Bears were never much of an offensive juggernaut to begin with, too. Fortunately for the home team, it is decent defensively against the pass — having surrendered the 4th-fewest scores through the air this year (17). Smith also hasn’t set the world on fire in 2024; he barely has more touchdown passes than interceptions (17 to 15). Although the Seahawks should take care of business on Thursday, it probably won’t be due to some kind of offensive outburst. I wish the total was a little bit higher, but even at 43.5, I like the under.

Seahawks vs Bears prediction: Under 43.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The weather will be good in Foxborough this weekend, and that’s obviously good news for the visiting Los Angeles Chargers (even if it will still be a bit cold by their LA standards). It’s safe to say that they have a great chance of clinching a playoff berth when they visit the lowly New England Patriots on Saturday afternoon. Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s crew is 9-6 and currently occupies the second wild-card spot in the AFC. Although the Bolts got blown out by the Buccaneers in Week 15, that is clearly an aberration as opposed to the rule. Los Angeles bounced back with a 34-27 victory over Denver this past Thursday and has won 6 of its last 9 contests. Its other 2 losses during this stretch are 1-possession setbacks against Baltimore and Kansas City.

Meanwhile, New England is 3-12 and has lost 5 in a row. 8 of its last 11 setbacks have come by margins larger than Saturday’s 4-point spread. Rookie QB Drake Maye has been decent, but a once-promising defense has taken a sizable step back of late. The Patriots have allowed at least 24 points in 5 consecutive contests, including 30 or more twice during this stretch. They were without 2 starters in the secondary (Jabrill Peppers and Marcus Jones) during last week’s loss at Buffalo and that could be the case again when the Chargers come to town. Facing a woeful opponent and playing on extra rest, Los Angeles should be expected to win and cover this weekend.

Chargers vs Patriots prediction: Chargers -4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -5.5.

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The Chargers’ offense rebounded from a couple of lackluster performances to pin 34 points on Denver in Week 16. They averaged 6.2 yards per play, Justin Herbert completed 74.2 percent of his passes and Gus Edwards racked up 4.9 yards per carry to go along with his 2 touchdowns. Herbert’s touchdown-to-interception ratio this season is 18-to-3 and he has also rushed for a pair of TDs. No wonder Harbaugh loves him so much! Herbert and the rest of the offense should be poised for success against a potentially depleted New England defense that has imploded down the stretch.

If there is any good news for the Patriots, it’s that their offense has improved since Maye took over as QB1. The #3 overall pick threw 2 interceptions in 2 of his first 4 starts but has since gone 6 consecutive games without a multi-interception performance. New England has scored at least 15 points in 10 straight, including more than 20 on 5 occasions during this stretch. Both teams should be in good shape offensively on Saturday and the weather won’t be a hindrance. I like the Over in this spot.

Chargers vs Patriots prediction: Over 42.0 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 43.0.

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We’ve got AFC South action on our hands here as the Tennessee Titans make the trip to Florida to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. There’s no sugarcoating it – both of these teams have been dreadful this season. They are both 3-12 and have been blown out multiple times this season. However, I’m amazed to see that Tennessee is a slight underdog in this game and like their chances of pulling the small upset. For starters, Jacksonville has lost each of its last 2 games to the Jets and Raiders – 2 equally poor franchises. They allowed both Aaron Rodgers and Aidan O’Connell to tear through them and have given up the most passing yards (4,148) and most passing yards per attempt (8.2) in the NFL. They’ve also given up the 4th-most passing touchdowns while making the 3rd-fewest interceptions. The Titans offense was unable to capitalize on that 3 weeks ago, as the Jaguars beat them 10-6 in Tennessee, but it’s worth noting that Will Levis was under center in that game and the Titans have shown vast improvement with Mason Rudolph under center.

Tennessee has put up 27 and 30 points in its last 2 games, with Rudolph posting 4 touchdown passes in that period. Calvin Ridley has seen an uptick in production while tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo has really started to take off. The Titans’ defense continues to plague them, having allowed the 2nd-most points in the NFL, but it’s unlikely the Jags will be able to take advantage. Jacksonville managed just 10 points against them last time and have mustered 14 points or fewer in 4 of their last 6 games. It could be a rough watch, but the Titans should prevail in this one, but it’s worth taking the extra point as insurance in case it really does come down to the wire.

Titans vs Jaguars prediction: Titans +1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -1.

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Despite both teams being in incredibly rough shape, we should see some points scored in this one. As mentioned previously, the Titans have allowed the 2nd-most points in the NFL and that has been on full display in recent weeks, giving up 42, 37 and 38 points in 3 of their last 4 games. While they did hold the Jags to 10 points last time, we should see some improvement from Jacksonville as that game was Mac Jones’ first start and he has since settled into his spot. He led the Jags offense to putting 25 points on the Jets a couple of weeks ago and they should see some success here.

Further, Mason Rudolph has been a clear upgrade since taking over from Will Levis and the experienced QB should be able to penetrate a Jaguars defense that has been woeful against the pass. The Titans actually rank in the top half of the league in passing touchdowns, and with plenty of points scored in Rudolph’s last 2 starts, he should have some success in this one.

Titans vs Jaguars prediction: Over 40 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Falcons and Commanders both did themselves a solid with big wins this past Sunday, increasing their chances of a postseason experience. Atlanta currently sits in 4th, the winner of the NFC South if it ended today (they own the tiebreaker over the Bucs, since they beat them twice this season), while Washington would be the final Wild Card. Despite a higher seed, the market believes that the Commanders are the most dangerous team, a valuation we tend to agree with, although Atlanta’s forecast just got brighter. Rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. had a fantastic first start. Sure, he was playing the Giants, arguably the league’s worst team, but a rookie thrower’s first game behind center is no easy spot, and Penix never looked rattled. The former Washington QB threw 18/27 for 205 yards (7.5 yards per pass) on Sunday, which included 4 dropped passes by his receivers and an interception that wasn’t his fault (Kyle Pitts coughed the ball up into a defender’s arms). It was a great sign for a Falcons team that needed an emotional boost. And Penix’s arm strength was visibly different from his predecessor. The leftie was slinging rockets across the field with ease, and was unafraid to push the ball downfield. That seemed to open up Bijan Robinson and the Falcons’ rushing attack, which gained a solid 127 yards. 

That’s good news for the Falcons because Washington’s defense isn’t much better. Jayden Daniels has been amazing in his rookie season and hope has been restored in DC, but it’s rarely because of their defense. Better offenses consistently put points against Washington, just ask Tampa (37), Cincinnati (33), Baltimore (30), Pittsburgh (28) and Philadelphia (59 combined points in 2 games). We’re not sure if the Falcons are suddenly “elite” now with Penix, but they surely looked better. And when Atlanta went down 7-0 early, Penix immediately responded and led the Falcons right down the field for a quick score. The kid seems poised, prepared, and fundamentally sound– 3 qualities that few throwers exhibit in the modern era. The Atlanta defense has also played much better lately, producing 16 sacks and holding opposing offenses to just 281 rushing yards over their past 4 games. Lastly, Washington is coming off a huge, emotional victory against the Eagles, the top team in their division, while the Falcons had a proverbial practice session against the hapless Giants. This is a dangerous spot for the Commanders, and we project it to be a very close contest.

Falcons vs Commanders prediction: Falcons +4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.5.

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Two basic elements are a part of every handicap – 1) an evaluation of each team and 2) an evaluation of the line itself. The latter typically means more. In this case, the number is telling us that Atlanta vs Washington will be a higher-scoring game. The dynamics of both programs don’t necessarily agree. On Washington’s side, the market hasn’t caught up to their proclivity to create “overs.” The Commanders are 10-5 to the over, including overs in 5 of their last 7 contests. The Falcons are the exact opposite– 10-5 to the under,  including unders in 6 of their last 7 contests. So what gives in this matchup? From an outsider’s perspective, one might consider an over. After all, Washington QB Jayden Daniels is the consensus favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year and the Falcons just got an upgrade with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback; their offense generated 35 points and 329 yards in his first start. Points are on their way, right? Not so fast.

We like Penix and his potential to succeed on Sunday, but it’s worth noting that Washington is sneaky-good against the pass. They’re 4th in sack percentage, 6th in opponent completion percentage and 4th in opponent passing yards per game (185.5). In a playoff atmosphere, we think Penix will hold his own, but that doesn’t mean he’ll explode and have a massively productive game. After all, against a porous Giants’ secondary, Atlanta was mostly conservative, choosing to run on 38 of 65 plays (58%). Washington isn’t nearly as capable against the run (29th in opponent yards per rush and 30th in opponent rush yards per game), which should grant the Falcons a chance to play ball-control and keep-away from Daniels.

On the other side, Washington is a legitimate top-10 offense, a huge part of why their battles have averaged 52 points per game this season, but Atlanta’s resistance is better than you might think. The Falcons are 9th in opponent yards per rush and pass this season, 2 metrics that describe a true bend-don’t-break defense. After Daniels’ awesome performance last Sunday, slowing down the Commanders’ offense will be what’s emphasized most during Atlanta’s week of prep, especially with a thrower who’s only starting in his second NFL game. Maybe Daniels and Penix put on a show. From where we’re sitting, particularly with the nerves of the playoffs looming and the need for both programs to keep winning, this total is a tad too high.

Falcons vs Commanders prediction: Under 47.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Before the season started, NFL schedule-makers must’ve been salivating at this matchup, a rematch of the NFC Championship game right before the playoffs. Many might have predicted that this would be a battle for the #1 seed right before January, and a moment for the Lions to get their revenge. Now, the game looks and feels wildly different, although oddsmakers are still positioning themselves with caution, and with respect for the downtrodden Niners. If any one week served as a microcosm for San Francisco’s season, it was Week 16. San Francisco flew to Miami to face a struggling Dolphins squad last Sunday, an outfit that has little chance of even making the postseason. It was a tight contest throughout, but as we’ve gotten used to seeing from the Niners this season, they flailed in the second half. They also only gained 81 total yards on the ground, a consequence of a very injured backfield and offensive line. On Monday, it was announced that All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams will miss the final 2 games of the season, further adding to the slew of injuries across San Francisco’s roster. They’ve only covered the spread once in their past 7 contests, and they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs.

The Lions, meanwhile, returned to form. After a loss in Week 15 where they allowed the Bills to score 48 points, the Bears were the perfect mince-meat for the hungry Lions. It showed on Sunday. Chicago eventually punched back, but as usual it was too little, too late. Detroit gained 475 yards and had the hapless Bears chasing them for the whole contest. Another big win for the Lions and 2 games remain before they can secure the NFC’s #1 seed. The only reason why we’d consider the 49ers is that Detroit has a look-ahead matchup next Sunday that could decide the NFC North. If the Vikings end up losing on Sunday (4:25 pm ET) to the Packers, that would place Detroit a full game ahead of Minnesota, so the Lions would have a chance to clinch the #1 seed and NFC North with a win at San Francisco. Either way, a Dan Campbell led-roster will undoubtedly come to play, with vengeance on their minds. And, based on 16 weeks of evidence, we simply don’t feel that San Francisco has the manpower or juice to hold them back.

Lions vs 49ers prediction: Lions -3.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.

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Opposing offenses are clearly starting to figure out the Lions’ defensive flaws and woes from injury, a big reason why super-high scoring has been paralleling every game with Dan Campbell’s program. Over the past 3 weeks, Lions games have averaged 69 points per game (a staggering 206 points in total), a result of above-average offenses playing catch-up, or if you’re the Bills, out-pacing the Lions’ juggernaut offense. And Detroit hasn’t slowed down one bit. They’re 1st in points per game (33), and top-5 in every major offensive category except for 4th-down conversion rate, where they’re 6th. A banged-up Niners’ defense is no match for the energy and output that Detroit can bring on a week-to-week basis, and the Lions should have extra fuel on Monday night, for reasons we mentioned in the spread writeup.

On the other side, it’s amazing to see how far the Niners have fallen, especially on defense. They still hold their own offensively, boasting a top-4 mark in yards per play and gaining 366 yards per game (8th), but their defense has devolved significantly. While they limit teams somewhat (5th in opponent yards per play, 5.1), they’re a defense that bends and breaks all the time. They rank 24th in opponent 3rd-down conversions and they’re even worse at preventing enemies from scoring touchdowns in the red zone (30th). Recently, against similarly built, elite opponents (Chiefs, Bills, Packers), they’ve permitted a disgusting 33.3 points per game. This might have been a hard-hitting, pre-playoff battle if situations were different, but we see little evidence against the reality that this contest will proceed how most of them have for both of these franchises this season.

Lions vs 49ers prediction: Over 50.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 51.5.

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