Welcome to daily fantasy football, Pickswise users. For those who haven’t yet dipped their toes into the DFS pool, allow me to introduce myself. My name is Howard Bender and I have been working in the fantasy sports industry for more than 20 years. I am the head of fantasy sports content for Fantasy Alarm and DFS Alarm as well as a bi-weekly columnist for the New York Post. We’ve enjoyed tremendous success over the years, but this NFL season has been one of our best as our Playbook and Showdown write-ups have already brought in a million-dollar winner on FanDuel as well as several others who have enjoyed six-figure wins. We promote the process and teach you to be a better DFS player and that has certainly been the case this year. Welcome to the #FAmily….
As we head into Monday Night Football for NFL Week 10 between the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers, the hope is that we get a hard-fought, competitive game between two division rivals. Anything but what we saw Sunday when eight of the 12 games were decided by at least a two-score differential with four or five blowouts. If we base it on what has happened thus far, we could be in trouble as the 49ers are 0-3 in the division and 0-4 at home this season. However, the 49ers have also won the last four meetings between these two teams with an average score differential of less than a touchdown. The over/under of 50 indicates an action-filled, high-scoring affair, so let’s take a look at how we should set up our DFS Showdown lineups.
Captain/MVP
Matthew Stafford, QB LAR
His overall numbers are up across the board and now he takes on a pass defense that may not give up a ton of passing yards (just 206.5 per game), but routinely struggles in coverage, as evidenced by the ranking of 25th in DVOA against the pass. Over his last three games, Stafford has averaged 311 passing yards and has a 7:2 TD:INT. With opposing quarterbacks posting a 102.0 passer rating against the 49ers, Stafford’s numbers should fall in line here.
Cooper Kupp, WR LAR
He’s Stafford’s best friend in the whole wide world and he’s got the targets, target share, receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns to prove it. With Robert Woods out and Odell Beckham still learning the Rams system, expect a heavy lean on Kupp tonight.
George Kittle, TE SF
The Rams may rank eighth in DVOA against the tight end, but they’re allowing the seventh-most fantasy points and an average of 64 receiving yards per game to them. Kittle returned from injured reserve last week and immediately led the team with eight targets, six catches, 101 receiving yards and a touchdown. He’ll remain a focal point of this offense tonight and every game moving forward.
Other Picks
Deebo Samuel, WR SF
It will be interesting to see if Jalen Ramsey stays in the slot all game or if he shadows Samuel at any point. Samuel has mostly played on the outside with just 28-percent of his snaps coming out of the slot, so if Ramsey, who has played 44-percent of his snaps as the slot-corner, doesn’t shadow, he’ll have a much easier time gaining separation. If we haven’t heard anything by game-time, get Samuel into those lineups.
Darrell Henderson, RB LAR
The 49ers may rank sixth in DVOA against the run, but they are allowing 131.6 rushing yards per game and have given up 12 touchdowns on the ground. The Rams will likely give a lot of early work to Henderson and allow play-action to develop and open things up for the pass. His fantasy numbers have run hot and cold recently but he still has five touchdowns in his last five games
Elijah Mitchell, RB SF
With no injury designation this week and JaMycal Hasty out, you can expect Mitchell to lead this backfield in carries once again. He had nearly 80 all-purpose yards in a tough loss to Arizona last week, but posted a 100-yard effort with a touchdown in each of the two prior games. The Rams may be allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards per game but they’ve coughed up 10 touchdowns on the ground this season.
Van Jefferson, WR LAR
Woods is out for the season and OBJ is still learning the ropes, so perhaps the value of Jefferson stays intact this week. He’s seen 20 targets over the last three games, but has just a 50-percent catch rate and only one touchdown to show for it. However, if there was ever a golden opportunity for him to shine, it would be here. A big game tonight could entrench him as the team’s No. 2 while Beckham stays on as the deep threat.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR SF
He’d be more well-liked if Ramsey is shadowing Samuel, but even if he isn’t, Aiyuk has garnered more attention recently with 15 targets which he turned into 10 catches for 134 yards and one touchdown over his last two games. If he can continue to see this kind of volume, he’ll be worth an add to your lineups.
Odell Beckham, WR LAR
You know the Rams are going to find ways to take their shiny, new toy out for a spin. He’ll slot in as the deep threat for Stafford and should see a handful of targets come his way. If he can convert one for a really big play, he’ll earn the value you need.
Dart Throw
Jeff Wilson, RB SF
Though he was activated from injured reserve for last week’s game, Wilson didn’t play a single snap. That should change this week with Hasty out and he should fill the role as the third-down/goal-line back. A handful of catches and one touchdown poached from Mitchell could be the difference you need to cash in tonight’s contests.
For a more in-depth breakdown and showdown analysis, be sure to check out DFSAlarm.com for all of your daily fantasy sports needs.
