Welcome to daily fantasy football, Pickswise users. For those who haven’t yet dipped their toes into the DFS pool, allow me to introduce myself. My name is Howard Bender and I have been working in the fantasy sports industry for more than 20 years. I am the head of fantasy sports content for Fantasy Alarm and DFS Alarm as well as a bi-weekly columnist for the New York Post. We’ve enjoyed tremendous success over the years, but this NFL season has been one of our best as our Playbook and Showdown write-ups have already brought in a million-dollar winner on FanDuel as well as several others who have enjoyed six-figure wins. We promote the process and teach you to be a better DFS player and that has certainly been the case this year. Welcome to the #FAmily….
After another bizarre week in the NFL, we just might be able to find some normalcy in Monday night’s game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Giants. While the Bucs are 3-6 against the spread this season, they are 3-1 ATS at home where Tom Brady is an absolute beast. You also have the prime-time aspect where we know Brady and his favorite toadie Rob Gronkowski love to shine their brightest. Will the Bucs steamroll in this one? Will the return of Saquon Barkley give the Giants the boost they need? Can Daniel Jones keep pace with a living legend? All of these questions will be answered tonight, not just on the field, but in our DFS Showdown lineups as well.
MVP/Captain
Tom Brady, QB TB
The numbers at home are eye-popping as Brady averages 319.3 passing yards per game and has an 18:2 TD:INT over four contests in Tampa. We know he likes to spread the ball around, so if we believe the Bucs will put up some points on a Giants defense that is allowing 24 per game this season, Brady seems like the clear-cut no-brainer in the captain’s seat tonight.
Rob Gronkowski, TE, TB
Nobody shines brighter during a prime-time game than Gronk and wouldn’t you know it, he’s somehow ready to play tonight after missing six games with a bad back. He actually did make an appearance during the New Orleans game, but was limited to one target and played just five snaps. The Giants rank 14th in DVOA against the tight end, so expect Brady and Gronk to team up multiple times tonight.
Daniel Jones, QB, NYG
The Bucs’ secondary is their biggest weakness and if you believe Tampa will put up points early, then Jones is going to have to do a lot of throwing just to keep pace. While Sterling Shepard will miss another game, Jones still has an array of pass-catchers to find downfield. Coming off a bye week, it’s tough to tell who his favorite target will be, so we’ll just collect shares of all of them by using Jones.
Other Plays
Chris Godwin, WR, TB
You can expect the Bucs to go after slot-corner Darnay Holmes a lot in this one as he seems to be the weakest link in coverage. While the Bucs like to move their receivers around, Godwin has run 67-percent of his snaps out of the slot and should be the heavy lean, especially with the physical advantages he has over him.
Check out our same game parlay for Monday Night Football (+998 odds!)
Leonard Fournette, RB, TB
Yes, Brady likes to take center stage both at home and in prime-time, but the team would be foolish not to exploit this match-up on the ground. Fournette has been solid this season with a 4.3 yards per carry average and the Giants, who allow the 10th-most rushing yards per game, are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the running back position.
Saquon Barkley, RB, NYG
The overall match-up isn’t great as the Bucs are allowing fewer than 80 rushing yards per game which is the lowest in the NFL, but Barkley can definitely be an explosive runner, so long as his ankle issues are in his rearview mirror. What could really work in his favor, especially if the Giants are playing from behind, is that Tampa ranks 26th in DVOA against running back pass-plays, allowing just over 51 yards per game to them.
Mike Evans, WR, TB
He’s scored at least one touchdown in three-straight games and actually have seven in his last five. He’s always a threat to score and doesn’t need a world of targets or catches to put up fantasy points for your team. The Bucs will try to move him around a bunch to avoid James Bradberry in coverage, so don’t get hung up on the coverage match-up.
Kadarius Toney, WR, NYG
The target share has been erratic, but with no Sterling Shepard, you can expect Toney to be more heavily involved in this one as we expect the Giants to be throwing a bunch. The Bucs have had a ton of injuries in the secondary and have yet to really settle on a regular slot-corner. You could see Dee Delaney, Ross Cockrell or even Mike Edwards, none of whom are going to shut down Toney in this one.
Kenny Golladay, WR, NYG
He’s not the can’t-miss wideout he once was as injuries have gotten the better of him over the last two years, but he’s supposedly healthy right now and should be able to handle both Jamel Dean and Pierre Desir in coverage. He lists as the Giants’ No. 1 wideout, so we can expect a heavy workload coming his way. The only question is, can he handle it? If building multiple lineups, you’ll want a piece of him.
Evan Engram, TE, NYG
The Bucs rank 19th in DVOA against the tight end and are allowing the 13th-most fantasy points per game to the position. Engram has touchdowns in each of his last two games and will see the targets in this one as it seems to be a vulnerable spot for the Bucs.
Buccaneers D/ST
Tampa Bay has 15 takeaways this season, which is sixth-most in the NFL; the Giants have turned the ball over 11 times this season. Jones has already thrown five interceptions and lost three fumbles this season, so if he gets frazzled by the Bucs pass-rush, mistakes could be made.
Dart Throw
Kyle Rudolph, TE NYG
While Engram is the lead tight end, Rudolph has still managed to steal a few targets here and there. He’s a big-bodied red zone target who won’t get you much in yardage, but could sneak into the end zone for a low-cost touchdown.
For a more in-depth breakdown and showdown analysis, be sure to check out DFSAlarm.com for all of your daily fantasy sports needs.
