Welcome to daily fantasy football, Pickswise users. For those who haven’t yet dipped their toes into the DFS pool, allow me to introduce myself. My name is Howard Bender and I have been working in the fantasy sports industry for more than 20 years. I am the head of fantasy sports content for Fantasy Alarm and DFS Alarm as well as a bi-weekly columnist for the New York Post. We’ve enjoyed tremendous success over the years, but this NFL season has been one of our best as our Playbook and Showdown write-ups have already brought in a million-dollar winner on FanDuel as well as several others who have enjoyed six-figure wins. We promote the process and teach you to be a better DFS player and that has certainly been the case this year. Welcome to the #FAmily….
Are you ok? Did you survive the debacle that was NFL Week 9 Sunday? If you did, then congratulations. Let’s have some fun with tonight’s DFS Showdown contests. If you didn’t, then you’re obviously here to make back some of what you lost. Sorry, you can’t recover your dignity here, Cowboys fans, but you can still play along. Not that tonight’s game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Chicago Bears is supposed to be filled with excitement. The ridiculously low 39 over/under should tell you everything you need to know, but as we always say with showdown slates – you don’t need to have a high-scoring game to succeed. You just need to have the guys who do score in your lineups. So let’s get it.
Captain/MVP
Najee Harris, RB PIT
He’ll be the chalk in the top spot this week as he’s really the only one who profiles as a potential scorer. Harris has averaged 24 carries and five targets per game over his last three and has three touchdowns in that span. Sure, the Bears will key in on him, but so has every defense that Pittsburgh has faced.
Diontae Johnson, WR PIT
The Bears may rank 13th in DVOA against the pass, but they do rank dead-last in coverage against the opposition’s top wideout. Johnson has seen double-digit targets in all but one game this season and has a relatively favorable match-up against Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson.
Allen Robinson, WR CHI
If you’re looking for a contrarian play in the top spot, then give Robinson a look tonight. You know no one else is thinking this based on what this season has looked like for him. But Robinson has been working out of the slot for 42-percent of his snaps and if there is a weakness in this Steelers secondary, it’s slot-corner Arthur Maulet.
Other Picks
Ben Roethlisberger, QB PIT
It hasn’t been a great year for Big Ben. In fact, it hasn’t even been a good year for him, but he’s averaged 249 passing yards over his last three games and has four touchdowns to no interceptions. The Bears will be without Khalil Mack, so the pass-rush takes a hit. Maybe that helps buy Ben some time for his throws.
Justin Fields, QB CHI
With the rushing ability, Fields gets a little bump in value, though the fact that he hasn’t thrown for more than 184 yards in any of his last four games is a bit disconcerting. However, if you’re looking for a silver lining, his completion percentage has increased over each of his last three games which could indicate continued future improvement. If he remains efficient and doesn’t turn the ball over, he could be a worthwhile play.
Khalil Herbert, RB CHI
The Bears are expected to activate David Montgomery before the game and the expectation is that he will get some work in. How much is unknown, but it seems unlikely that Herbert will take too much of a backseat. Pittsburgh has allowed an average of 115.3 rushing yards per game over their last three, so Herbert could end up with a decent day.
PIT D/ST
The Steelers’ defense routinely plays better at home than it does on the road, so the hope here is they can contain a Bears defense that struggles to put points up on the board. Pittsburgh doesn’t force a lot of turnovers, but the Bears do have 11 giveaways, so there is definite promise here.
Cole Kmet, TE CHI
The Steelers are allowing 11.1 fantasy points per game to the tight end position this season and rank 13th in DVOA against it. Kmet has seen six targets in each of his last two, so if he can continue seeing that many, he should be able to produce a respectable total in a PPR format.
Chase Claypool, WR PIT
He’s seen an average of just under seven targets per game this season and we know the Steelers like to use Claypool in a multitude of fashions, from deep threat to gimmicky jet sweeps. We don’t anticipate much scoring, but if both teams are struggling to put up points, the Steelers could try to get cute.
Also, both kickers – Chris Boswell and Cairo Santos, warrant consideration for your lineups tonight.
Dart Throw
David Montgomery, RB CHI
The Bears are expected to activate Montgomery from injured reserve and give him a share of the workload tonight. Just how much of a share is unknown, but if they move the ball early, they could consider giving him a decent number of carries in the first few series to see how he’s feeling and maybe that lands him in the end zone.
For a more in-depth breakdown and showdown analysis, be sure to check out DFSAlarm.com for all of your daily fantasy sports needs.
