Welcome to daily fantasy football, Pickswise Nation. For those who haven’t yet dipped their toes into the DFS pool, allow me to introduce myself. My name is Howard Bender and I have been working in the fantasy sports industry for more than 20 years. I am the head of fantasy sports content for Fantasy Alarm and DFS Alarm as well as a bi-weekly columnist for the New York Post. We’ve enjoyed tremendous success over the years, but this NFL season has been one of our best as our Playbook and Showdown write-ups have already brought in a $1,000,000 winner on FanDuel, as well as several others who have enjoyed six-figure wins. We promote the process and teach you to be a better DFS player and that has certainly been the case this year. Welcome to the #FAmily….
The NFL conference championships are here and both games afford tremendous opportunities to make some money playing the DFS Showdown slates. In the AFC, the upstart Cincinnati Bengals are looking to repeat their Week 17 magic when they bested the Kansas City Chiefs on a last-second field goal to win 34-31. And in the NFC, the San Francisco 49ers — who swept the season series — are looking to make it six straight over the Los Angeles Rams. All four offenses are capable of putting up a ton of points and both games should offer a myriad of scoring option to use in your lineups.
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
MVP/Captain
Patrick Mahomes, QB KC
There’s a reason he’s always the most expensive quarterback on any slate he’s on and you don’t have to look any further than the 782 passing yards and 8:1 TD:INT over the 2 playoff games the Chiefs have played this year. He only threw for 259 yards and 2 touchdowns during the Week 17 matchup against the Bengals, but we expect a much stronger showing this week — especially if this game turns into the second-half track meet everyone is expecting.
Travis Kelce, TE KC
The Bengals rank 24th in DVOA against the tight-end position and they allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends during the season. He only had 5 grabs for 25 yards and a touchdown the last time he faced the Bengals, but that is sitting in the middle of a five-game stretch in which he has 6 touchdowns and 8 red-zone targets. He’s averaged 102 yards and 1 touchdown per game here in the playoffs and he’ll be leaned on heavily once again.
Joe Burrow, QB CIN
The Chiefs rank 23rd in DVOA against the pass and there is no quarterback more on-fire than Burrow right now. He threw for 446 yards and four touchdowns against the Chiefs during their Week 17 meeting and while he didn’t throw for any touchdowns against the Titans last week, the guy has seven 300-yard games this season and has thrown for at least 2 touchdowns in 12 games. Going back to his time at LSU, Burrow is built for the big moments and this one will be no different.
Ja’Marr Chase, WR CIN
Everything we expected to see from the Burrow-to-Chase tandem has been on full display over the last 5 weeks as Chase has racked up four 100-yard efforts and 3 touchdowns over that span. Now yes, those three scores all came in one game, but that game also happened to be against the Chiefs. He has seen 45 targets in that span and will be heavily leaned on by Burrow in this match-up. The Chiefs’ defense has had its moments, but they rank 23rd against the pass and 17th against the opposition’s No. 1 receiver for a reason.
Mid-Tier
Tyreek Hill, WR KC
It had been a tough run for Hill after he tested positive for COVID-19 and his last 3 regular-season games were less than stellar which is putting it mildly. But he’s built up his stamina here in the playoffs and has 207 yards and 2 touchdowns off 16 catches over these last 2 games. We’ll see what the Bengals try to do in an effort to keep Hill in check, but when the game is on the line, Mahomes routinely looks for the speedy wideout downfield.
Tee Higgins, WR CIN
While Higgins took a back seat to Chase the last time the Bengals faced the Chiefs, you cannot ignore the 5-game stretch prior where he posted four 100-yard efforts with 4 touchdowns. He also got banged-up in that game against the Chiefs, missed Week 18 and then struggled in his first game back against the Raider. Last week’s 7 catches for 96 yards on nine targets should assuage any concern. If the Bengals are going to win this game, Higgins will need to stay heavily involved.
Joe Mixon, RB CIN
Even though there’s that chance he could be game-flowed right out of carries if the Chiefs go up early, Mixon still offers tremendous opportunities if you’re using him in DFS. He only had 12 carries for 46 yards the last time these teams played, but he also added 7 catches for 40 yards — which is obviously big in a full-point PPR format. He might actually make for a solid contrarian play as most expect this game to turn into a second-half track meet, so low-ownership and a potential trip to the end zone for Mixon could be your best friend this week.
Byron Pringle, WR KC
He has clearly jumped over Mecole Hardman as the No. 2 receiver and the guy who sees the third-most targets after Hill and Kelce. He wasn’t used heavily in their first meeting as the Chiefs offense seemingly took their foot off the gas and tried to run the clock out, but he’s averaged five catches per game over the last 3 and has 3 touchdowns over his last 2 games. He won’t post eye-popping numbers ever, but his nine red-zone targets over the last 6 games should tell you all you need to know.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB KC
While everyone flocks to Jerick McKinnon, I’m going to stay with Edwards-Helaire in this match-up. The Bengals run defense gave up the 11th-most fantasy points per game to the running back position during the season and that was before they lost defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi. Edwards-Helaire missed the last meeting against the Bengals and while McKinnon out-touched him last week against the Bills, I still believe he matches up better here against the Bengals.
Jerick McKinnon, RB KC
He will be pretty chalky after seeing his usage over the last few weeks, but from a pure runner standpoint there should be concerns. Yes he excels as a pass-catcher, but when the Chiefs are trying to establish the run early, they are likely to turn away from a guy who doesn’t exactly excel in yards after contact. If you don’t believe in CEH, then McKinnon should be your guy, but just remember that his ownership rates will be high and he will also be competing for pass-catching work with a returning Darrel Williams.
C.J. Uzomah, TE CIN
The Chiefs rank 18th in DVOA against the tight end position and have allowed an average of 53.2 receiving yards per game over an average of 6.7 passes thrown to them. Uzomah has averaged just under 7 targets per game over his last 4 and has 13 catches for 135 yards and one touchdown during the Bengals playoff run. He has also been given 6 red-zone targets in that span, as well, so if you’re looking to pivot off the chalk he could be a real nice option.
Tyler Boyd, WR CIN
I’m not too bullish on Boyd this week, but you certainly cannot ignore him. Prior to last week’s game, Boyd had touchdowns in 4 straight games — including his last contest against the Chiefs — but overall it’s going to be a tight battle between him and slot corner L’Jarius Sneed. He’s a super-contrarian pivot off Chase and Higgins if you’re building multiple lineups.
Dart Throws
Darrel Williams, RB, KC
Williams has been sidelined with turf toe, but all signs point toward him playing this week. His presence will likely hurt the production of McKinnon more than that of Edwards-Helaire and — despite his fumble from a couple of weeks ago — he is still a favorite of Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy. If he starts stealing pass-catching work early, he could surprise a lot of people.
Samaje Perine, RB, CIN
The only way you throw the Perine dart is if you think this game turns into a blowout one way or the other. If the Bengals are up huge, they will likely want to preserve Mixon for the Super Bowl. If the Chiefs are up big, the Bengals will likely turn to Perine in an effort to spare Mixon the wear and tear as he heads into the third year of a 4-year deal. Perine can catch passes, too, so that only boosts the value.
Demarcus Robinson, WR, KC
Leave it to Mahomes to find the random guys for the touchdown that leaves all DFS players scratching their heads and wondering why they didn’t play more lineups just to get some variety. The reason I lean Robinson over Hardman is not only because he routinely sees more snaps, but also because Hardman is a poor man’s Tyreek Hill. So if Mahomes wants speed downfield, he’ll just use Hill. Robinson could be that surprise dart no one sees coming.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
MVP/Captain
Matthew Stafford, QB LAR
The defensive weakness of the 49ers is in their secondary, so look for Stafford to attack early and often as establishing an early lead should help reduce the amount of running San Francisco can do. Stafford has averaged 240.5 passing yards in their 2 meetings with 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions in total. He is going to have to be very careful not to turn the ball over, but an aggressive passing attack almost ensures at least one. If he can limit the mistakes and Sean McVay doesn’t get too conservative with his play-calling, Stafford should produce solid totals.
Cooper Kupp, WR LAR
Is there any analysis really needed here? Kupp plays 100 percent of the snaps, he leads the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns, and he is Stafford’s first-look when the Rams need to move the ball downfield. San Francisco allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position, and over the 2 games he has faced the 49ers he has totaled 240 yards and a touchdown.
Deebo Samuel, WR SF
He dominated the Rams in their first meeting, catching all 5 of his targets for 36 yards and a touchdown while also rushing five times for 97 yards and another score. It was the first time he had been used in the ground attack as anything more than just doing a random jet sweep. And wile you would have thought the Rams would have been more ready for him in the second game, Deebo managed four catches for 95 yards and ran the ball 8 times for 45 yards and a touchdown. You can expect the Rams to try and target him more in their defensive scheme, but with so many weapons and pre-snap misdirection I’s gong to be difficult to contain him.
Elijah Mitchell, RB SF
Despite having Deebo sharing work out of the backfield, Mitchell has still averaged 23 carries over his last 7 games. He has found the endzone 4 times in that span and is routinely still in the mix for red-zone touches. In their 2 meetings this season, he ran for 176 yards on 48 carries (3.7 YPC) and should see his usual workload while the 49ers establish the run early. This is likely a contrarian captain play.
Mid-Tier
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB SF
It’s tough to use Garoppolo in a showdown lineup because more often than not the juice isn’t worth the squeeze. He has thrown for fewer than 175 yards in each of his last 2 games, which isn’t exactly enticing to DFS players. However, he did throw for 316 yards during the 49ers’ comeback in Week 18 and he had 3 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions in the 2 games they played during the regular season. If the Rams jump out to another early lead, you can expect a little more throwing from Garoppolo like we saw in Week 18. He just needs to avoid the turnovers.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR SF
Consistency hasn’t exactly been Aiyuk’s strong suit this season and in the matchups against the Rams, it’s even more evident as he totaled 26 yards on 3 catches in their first meeting and then 107 yards on six catches in the second game. The Rams rank 14th in DVOA against the opposition’s No. 2 receiver, so if he sees volume he should be able to produce. It’s just a matter of the game flow, so if you think the Rams jump out to another early lead then Aiyuk should be on your Showdown radar.
Jauan Jennings, WR SF
At his current price, it’s hard not to love Jennings — especially not after his 6-catch, 94-yard, 2-score game against the Rams in Week 18. We’re not chasing those stats, though, when you see how the defense matches up. When Jennings is usually on the field, he works out of the slot and while that is usually Jalen Ramsey territory, you can’t expect to see the Rams top cover-corner on the No. 3 receiver while Samuel, Aiyuk and Kittle run wild. He makes for a fantastic pay-down and allows you to get some bigger talent into your lineup.
Odell Beckham, WR LAR
Funny enough, OBJ had just 2 catches for 18 yards in each of the first two games against the 49ers and he failed to find the endzone in either. The first H2H game was his first overall with the Rams so a limited showing was expected. The second game was a little more surprising, but since he’s been with Los Angeles he has averaged 6 targets per game and has 6 touchdowns. With Van Jefferson banged up, he could see a few extra throws come his way.
Tyler Higbee, TE LAR
He’s scored three touchdowns in the two games the Rams have faced the 49ers and while they rank fifth in DVOA against the tight end and don’t usually give up a ton of work to the position, McVay seems to have their number with Higbee. With Van Jefferson banged up and Beckham not having been all that productive in the first two meetings, you should probably give Higbee a look, especially after he saw the most targets on the team back in Week 18.
George Kittle, TE SF
While the Rams rank fourth in DVOA against tight ends, they are still allowing an average of almost 52 receiving yards per game to them and have allowed an average of 12.3 fantasy points per game to the position in a full-point PPR format. The volume has diminished over the last 5 games, but it did pick back up last week against the Packers — and with the game on the line Garoppolo has his favorites.
Cam Akers, RB LAR
There’s a fair amount working against the Rams ground game as the 49ers front seven is rock-solid and they rank second in DVOA against the run. The speed of their linebackers also has them ranked fourth against running back pass-plays. The lean is Akers if you believe this is a strong back-and-forth game between the two as he saw tremendous volume last week and he’s the trusted pass-catcher. But if you feel the Rams jump out to that lead again and they want to rest Akers for the big game, you should pivot.
Sony Michel, RB LAR
The volume has decreased dramatically with the return of Akers, but if the Rams jump out to an early lead and they look to chew up some of the clock then they are better off using Michel as a power back rather than Akers — who was over-worked last week and struggled down the stretch. He is probably more of a dart throw, but if the Rams look to save Akers for the Super Bowl then Michel could see some extra work.
Van Jefferson, WR LAR
We just can’t leave him out completely, but Jefferson is pretty close to being a dart throw at this point, given the knee injury. He is listed as questionable as of writing this, so you’ll want to check in on the inactives before the game starts. But he’s probably nothing more than a contrarian play to save some salary right now.
Dart Throws
Kyle Juszczyk, FB SF
He’s the ultimate dart throw, as no one ever uses him but the handful of targets Juszczyk sees and the times in which Kyle Shanahan gets him involved makes him worth a shot when looking to differentiate yourself from the rest of the field. Even just a couple of catches for 20 or 30 yards helps him return value given the cost, but you need him to find the end zone, something he’s only done once this season, if you want to win with him in your lineup. I will say this – the Rams ranking 24th in DVOA against running back pass-plays, does lend some credence to the play.
Ben Skowronek, WR LAR
He’s someone to use if Van Jefferson is out for this game. Obviously there’s a remote chance he can do something even if Jefferson is active, but it’s going to be tough for him to accrue offensive snaps unless they say Jefferson is going to be limited or on a snap count. Skowronek is definitely a name to keep on the radar when building multiple lineups.
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