Andrew Ortenberg
Show Bio
One of the most highly anticipated matchups of Week 7 is this cross-conference clash between the Detroit Lions and the Baltimore Ravens. A contender in the AFC vs a contender in the NFC; what more can we ask for?
The Lions have been one of the best stories in the NFL this season and sit at 5-1, while Baltimore is as competitive as ever and enters at 4-2. What better way to celebrate the action than by betting a Same Game Parlay? You can also read all our other NFL Week 7 picks here, but now let’s get right into it:
Baltimore Ravens -9.5 alternate spread (+240)
Lamar Jackson to throw for 3+ touchdowns (+750)
Parlay odds: +1596
We have a 2-leg Same Game Parlay which pays out at almost 16/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
Baltimore Ravens -9.5 alternate spread (+240)
To start this Same Game Parlay we have the Ravens on an alternate spread. I like head coach Dan Campbell and the Lions as much as the next guy and it’s been fun to watch them start 5-1, but I don’t think they are nearly as good as that record suggests. During their current 4-game winning streak, they have beaten Desmon Ridder, Jordan Love, Bryce Young and Baker Mayfield — not exactly a murderer’s row of opposing quarterbacks — and Lamar Jackson is going to be a big step up in competition for them.
Lions running back David Montgomery got hurt against Tampa Bay last week and he has been ruled out for this one. That’s a big loss for this Lions offense, as Montgomery had rushed for 230 yards and four touchdowns across their previous two games. The Ravens have only lost twice this season, and one was on the road against the Steelers in a game they should have won easily were it not for an incredible amount of drops.
The other loss was by 3 points in overtime. Baltimore is also getting back Odafe Oweh this week for his first game since Week 2, which will be a big boost for its pass-rush. And the key to beating Jared Goff is getting pressure on him, as he still tends to get happy feet when the pocket collapses.
Lamar Jackson to throw for 3+ touchdowns (+750)
I think this correlates nicely with the first leg of our Same Game Parlay, since if the Ravens are covering an alt. spread it’s very likely that Jackson had a big day. If Baltimore is going to cover -9.5 it’s going to be because it had success through the air rather than on the ground. That’s because Detroit has arguably the best run defense in the league, as this team is only giving up 3.3 yards per rush attempt on the year. The Lions allow just 64.7 rushing yards per game, the best mark in the NFL.
In other words, new Ravens OC Todd Monken knows he is going to need to air it out more than usual here. Jackson is still searching for a breakout game, but it’s clear that this passing game has a higher ceiling than it did last year thanks to the addition of guys like Zay Flowers. And starting Lions cornerback Jerry Jacobs was a late add to the injury report on Saturday with a knee issue, so the Ravens’ passing attack could get another boost from that.
As I laid out in the alt. spread write-up above, the Lions’ defense has coasted against some pretty bad quarterbacks recently. The last time they faced a competent passing game was back in Week 2, when Geno Smith and the Seahawks hung 37 on them.
Jackson had 3+ passing touchdowns in three of his 12 games last year and that was in a down season, so I think getting +750 here has some great standalone value as well. Since his rookie season, Jackson has thrown for 3+ touchdowns in 16 of 60 games. That’s a hit rate of 26.7 percent, while +750 has implied odds of only 11.8 percent.
Check out all our NFL content via our NFL Week 7 Betting Guide
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a Same Game Parlay and where can I bet it?
