NFL Week 14 DFS contests come to a close tonight with a solid DFS Showdown match-up on Monday Night Football. There isn’t a lot of recent history between the New England Patriots and the Arizona Cardinals, but all eyes are glued to how the mad genius, Bill Belichick, schemes against Kliff Kingsbury, whose on-field coaching decisions are routinely dissected each week. Unfortunately, you cannot use the coaches in your DFS lineups. You’re going to have to turn to the players to find the right ones to pick up the scoring. The 43.5 over/under indicates that we should see some decent scoring plays in this one, so let’s break down the action and see who will unlock the winning DFS answers.
Please note that players not listed below are not necessarily a complete fade and any player listed can certainly be used as the MVP/Captain. These are merely suggestions for players to use when setting Showdown lineups.
MVP/Captain
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB New England Patriots
He’s the primary weapon of the Patriots and we expect Belichick to continue leaning on his top producer this season. The Cardinals run defense has been pretty solid, allowing just 110.8 rushing yards per game, but they have allowed 13 rushing touchdowns on the season and they do rank 30th in DVOA against running back pass-plays. Damien Harris is doubtful so that likely puts more of a focus on Stevenson as an every-down back in this one. Expect decent rushing totals, but look for him to pick up solid points through the passing game.
Kyler Murray, QB Arizona Cardinals
We’ve watched Josh Allen get the better of the Patriots with his rushing. Same with Lamar Jackson, Even Justin Fields gave them fits as he led the Bears to an improbable victory over them on Monday Night Football back in Week 7. If Murray and Kingsbury can maintain a strong and sensible gameplan that keeps the quarterback mobile in the backfield, the Patriots coverage is going to struggle. With Murray’s fantasy floor raised from the rushing yards, he should make for a solid Captain play if you can afford the salary.
Mac Jones, QB New England Patriots
If there were ever a time where we expect to see Belichick have Jones sling the rock a little more, it would be this game. The Arizona secondary has struggled throughout this season, allowing an average of 245.4 passing yards per game with a whopping 24 passing touchdowns allowed this season. Opposing quarterbacks have posted a 101.0 passer rating against Arizona which is second-highest in the league, so if we can get the mad genius to unleash him a little – maybe see what we saw on Thanksgiving against Minnesota – then you’ve got yourself a Captains play which could be low-owned.
Read our full New England Patriots vs Arizona Cardinals predictions
Mid-Tier and DFS Value Picks
Hunter Henry, TE New England Patriots
This would have been a nice contrarian Captain play had the rest of the world not been tracking how bad the Cardinals do against the tight end, but alas, it’s probably more of a chalky salary-saver given what we know. Arizona ranks 30th in DVOA against the tight end, they allow an average of almost 70 receiving yards per game to them and the most fantasy points per game as well. Henry should see a decent target-share in this one as the Patriots routinely expose the poor linebacker coverage in the middle of the field.
James Conner, RB Arizona Cardinals
While the Patriots are preoccupied with shutting down Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins, the Cardinals would be wise to keep Conner heavily involved in this one. The Patriots’ run defense has been outstanding this year, allowing just 111.2 rushing yards per game with only five rushing touchdowns allowed on the season, but this could be a spot where they struggle if they are caught up in their pass-coverage and possibly leaving a spy on Murray. Conner may not rip up huge chunks of yardage, but he should be productive if deployed properly.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR Arizona Cardinals
He’s the No. 1 target for Murray and will likely draw some heavy coverage from the Patriots secondary, but that doesn’t mean Arizona is going to avoid him. Hopkins is one of those guys who can thrive in almost any match-up so expect to see a continued focus on getting him free in the defensive secondary. Hopkins has averaged just over 10 targets per game since returning from his suspension so don’t expect Murray to suddenly stop looking his way.
Marquise Brown, WR Arizona Cardinals
If there is a vulnerability in the Patriots’ pass-coverage, it does seem to come against the No. 2 receiver. New England ranks 20th in DVOA against the opposition’s No. 2 wideout and they are allowing close to 50 receiving yards per game to them. Brown profiles more as a deep-threat, so expect to see the Cardinals take a few extra shots downfield when he’s sitting in one-on-one coverage.
DeVante Parker, WR New England Patriots
When he’s healthy, Parker typically serves as the X-receiver in this offense and should be matched-up with Marco Wilson, more often than not. That’s actually a pretty favorable match-up for the veteran wideout as he holds a significant size advantage and should out-muscle the coverage on contested catches. It all comes down to how much Belichick has Jones throwing. If the attack is balanced, Parker should see some decent targets.
Kendrick Bourne, WR New England Patriots
With Jakobi Meyers out, Bourne is likely to see an uptick in snaps during this game and those snaps will come from the slot where the Cardinals really struggle in coverage. They rank 24th in DVOA against the slot receiver and are allowing an average of 50.4 receiving yards per game to them. Bourne should get some work between the 20s but look for him to find some sneaky separation inside the red zone as well as inside the end zone. Could be a real nice, low-owned, sneaky play.
New England Patriots D/ST
We’d be remiss if we didn’t note the Patriots defense as a viable play in this match-up. Yes, they have struggled against mobile quarterbacks, but when you have someone like Belichick scheming against someone like Kingsbury, you have to give the advantage to New England. They have 19 takeaways on the season and they rank fourth in the league with 39 sacks. If you’re looking to save some salary and get a few cheap points, this could be the way.
A.J. Green, WR Arizona Cardinals
In three-receiver sets, the Cardinals move Brown into the slot so hey can get Green on the field as the Z-receiver. Again, the Patriots have had their struggles downfield at times, so Green should also command a few balls downfield. He’s done some decent work going up for contested catches at times, so if you’re building a lineup that fades Hopkins, Green could be an intriguing play.
Nelson Agholor, WR New England Patriots
With Byron Murphy out for the Cardinals, we should expect to see Agholor match-up against Trayvon Mullen which is probably more of an even match-up than anything. But Agholor is a deep-threat the Patriots like to find streaking down the sidelines, so if Jones sees some one-on-one coverage and not safety coming over to help out, we could see a few shots taken to Agholor downfield. If he can find his way into the end zone, he easily pays off his salary.
Greg Dortch, WR Arizona Cardinals
While he filled in nicely when Hopkins was suspended and Brown was injured, Dortch really doesn’t see a world of targets. However, they do like mixing him in as their slot receiver at times, so when he is matched up against Myles Bryant, Dorth should be able to utilize his speed to gain separation. If we can get a few looks his way inside the red zone, he could prove to be a decent contrarian play.
**Both kickers are very much in-play for this game. Nick Folk is probably the preferred choice, but veteran Matt Prater could be in for a busy night should the Patriots defense stall out Murray and the Arizona offense.
Check out our MNF Patriots-Cardinals Same Game Parlay (+781 odds!)
Dart-Throw DFS Bargains
Jonnu Smith, TE New England Patriots
While everyone is adding Henry to their lineups, be the contrarian player and get yourself some shares of Smith. He may only play half the snaps and see a limited target share, but if the Cardinals spend their time focusing on Henry, Belichick is going to mess with them, use more two-tight end sets and likely throw to Smith instead. You could also use both him and Henry in your lineup if you think the Patriots really push to expose that shortcoming in coverage.
Trey McBride, TE Arizona Cardinals
If you’re throwing a dart the other way, take a look at McBride who has seen his workload increase over the past few games. He’s got seven targets over his last two and while the Patriots may rank 11th in DVOA against the position, they are allowing them an average of 43 receiving yards per game. If even one of his targets can come inside the red zone, who knows…?
For additional NFL DFS Week 14 coverage, check out our full coverage on Fantasy Alarm
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