Caleb Wilfinger
Show Bio
Monday Night Football puts the final bow on NFL Week 4 and we have a fantastic battle between division rivals as Cooper Kupp and the Los Angeles Rams take on Deebo Samuel and the San Francisco 49ers.
Games between these two teams are routinely tight and often low-scoring which is why Vegas has the spread at 49ers minus-1.5 and the game total at 42, but for DFS Showdown purposes, it doesn’t matter what the final score is or who wins. All we care about is identifying which players will do the scoring and how many of them we can fit into a winning DFS lineup. The answers are all right here.
MVP/Captain
Cooper Kupp, WR LAR
While it’s not always necessary to have Kupp as your Captain, it certainly does help that he’s easily the most consistent point-scorer on the field, week-in and week-out. Tonight, should be no different as Kupp, who lines up primarily in the slot, will spend most of the night matching up against Deommodore Lenoir who’s slot-coverage has the Niners ranking dead-last in DVOA. But it’s not just Lenoir. None of these 49ers defensive backs can really contain him, so expect another strong performance.
Deebo Samuel, WR SF
He lines up all over the field and will Jalen Ramsey staying to his usual spot on the left side of the field, you can expect the 49er to keep Deebo away from him as much as they can. The targets have been consistent thus far and he is also averaging almost six carries per game with routine carries and targets inside the red zone. Until the 49ers get Elijah Mitchell back, you can expect Samuel to continue his wide-back role and consistent work near the goal-line.
George Kittle, TE SF
He made his season-debut last week and was immediately thrown into the fire with five targets, one of which was inside the red-zone. The team is less-reliant on Kittle as they once were, but that has more to do with his injuries than his level of play. With the Rams ranking 17th in DVOA against the tight end, you can expect Kyle Shanahan to try and exploit some mismatches in coverage here.
Be sure to check out our full Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers predictions
Other Plays
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB SF
You know you’re not getting eye-popping numbers from Garoppolo, but if we can get something near his career-averages against the Rams – 258.2 passing yards with 1.5 touchdowns and a 96 passer-rating, we’d be pretty darn ecstatic. His first two games haven’t exactly lit up the scoreboard, but he always seems to get up a little more for these games against Sean McVay and the Rams who are banged-up in the secondary and are actually allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Matthew Stafford, QB LAR
This is a tough match-up for Stafford who has struggled at times this season, given his possibly-injured elbow (partially-torn UCL) and his lack of preseason work. He has one good game under his belt thanks to a dismal Atlanta defense, so facing the 49ers could be trouble. Not only do they rank well in DVOA against both the run and the pass, they are allowing the fewest passing yards per game (148.3) and opposing quarterbacks have just a 74.2 passer-rating against them. Despite having Kupp as a weapon, Stafford may only be worthy as a contrarian play.
Cam Akers, RB LAR
It will be tough to find the running room against a defense that has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game this season. But Akers has taken that “he needs a sense of urgency” comment from his coach to heart and the results have been rock-solid. He’s got 27 carries for 105 yards and one touchdown over his last two games and while those numbers aren’t massive, you have to look at them in relation to how the offensive play-calling is done. With seven red zone carries over the last two games, Akers looks like he’s taken this job back in full force.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR SF
With both Cobie Durant and David Long out for the Rams, Aiyuk should have a pretty decent advantage in coverage against anyone not named Jalen Ramsey. He’s seen eight targets in each of his last two games and with this game expected to stay pretty close throughout, he can probably expect a similar workload this evening. The Rams are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position, so adding Aiyuk to your lineups should be a nice boost.
Allen Robinson, WR LAR
Tough spot to be in with Robinson right now as he’s had two bad games on one solid effort. Is that just growing pains from learning the ropes with his new quarterback or is it just an extension of his lousy finish in Chicago? He should see a lot of Emmanuel Moseley in coverage which gives him a slight advantage, but with only five targets per game, you have to worry about the quality of throws coming from Stafford who will be on the run from the 49ers’ pass-rush. He’s another contrarian play here.
Jeff Wilson, RB SF
The Rams are extremely tough against the run, allowing an average of just 93.7 yards per game with just one rushing touchdown allowed. Wilson only sees about 10-12 carries per game and while he’s seen eight rushing attempts inside the red zone with six of those coming in the green zone, his lack of touchdowns makes him a tough sell for your lineups. If he gets into the end zone, then there is value, but considering the price tag, there is obvious risk involved. If you believe he’s getting in, though, then use him.
Jauan Jennings, WR SF
While the Rams may rank seventh in DVOA against slot receivers, injuries to the secondary have shifted things around a bit and Jennings could see some really soft coverage tonight. The opposition has thrown to the slot an average of 9.3 times for 70 yards per game thus far, so with weaker coverage, Jennings could be the guy to pop in your lineup.
Tyler Higbee, TE LAR
Higbee’s targets are tightening up with the improved coverage he has been facing and it doesn’t get much easier as the 49ers rank second in DVOA against the tight end and are allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. You may want to let him sit out tonight’s DFS action.
Ben Skowronek, WR LAR
With Van Jefferson out, Skowronek has been getting some extra targets and snaps through the first three weeks and while he hasn’t found his way into the end zone just yet, there is still some hope. With the 49ers corners focused on Kupp and Robinson, Skowronek could be that borderline dart-throw you never knew you needed.
Get our best Monday Night Football touchdown scorer bets
Dart Throws
Darrell Henderson, RB LAR
He’s losing touches to Akers and what’s worse is that he hasn’t seen a more than one target come his way in two games. But, in a Showdown slate, you need to have someone no one else does and if the Rams struggle at all and play from behind, he could see some extra snaps. Again, it’s a dart-throw.
Kyle Juszczyk, FB SF
The ultimate dart-throw for showdown slates, Juszczyk is one of those guys who, if he scores, he can win you a GPP. If he doesn’t, then he’s just another guy you wasted putting into your lineups. Fortunately, he doesn’t cost much. But you know Kyle Shanahan loves that play where his fullback runs the wheel route and finds himself toe-tapping at the sidelines and right into the end zone.
For additional NFL DFS Week 2 coverage, check out our full coverage on Fantasy Alarm
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