The NFL Week 5 DFS contests begin tonight on Thursday Night Football with a match-up of two teams staving off injuries and have hope to turn their early-season struggles around. The Indianapolis Colts will be without star running back Jonathan Taylor as they head into Denver to face a Broncos team that also lost its top runner in Javonte Williams, who tore his ACL and is out for the season. Neither team has delivered on its promises to their fans, both coaches are sitting on the hot seat, and a game total of 42 indicates that these offenses are still a bit stuck-in-the-mud.
Identifying which players to use in your winning DFS lineups shouldn’t be too difficult as, sometimes, you just have to play the chalk, but where you go for your deep dives to differentiate yourself from the rest of the herd will be the real challenge. Fortunately, we’ve got you covered.
Be sure to check out our full Indianapolis Colts vs Denver Broncos predictions
MVP/Captain
Courtland Sutton, WR, DEN
Pretty obvious that he is the go-to guy as Sutton leads all Broncos receivers in snaps, routes run and targets. He’s been building a solid on-field rapport with his quarterback, and after three weeks of respectable receiving numbers, he finally found the end zone in Week 4. It will be a tough battle against Stephon Gilmore and Brandon Facyson, but the Colts do rank dead-last in DVOA against the opposing No. 1 receiver, so it’s obviously not an insurmountable mountain to climb.
Nyheim Hines, RB, IND
The expectation is that Hines will see the majority of the work out of the backfield with Taylor out and him being the only one who has spent any time on the field during the games this season. The Broncos have allowed 114 rushing yards per game with two touchdowns, but we just watched Josh Jacobs run all over them in Week 4, which is likely to continue this week. The Broncos also rank just 15th in DVOA against running back pass-plays, so given how strong a pass-catcher Hines is, we expect a strong effort from him tonight, worthy of the captain’s seat.
Russell Wilson, QB, DEN
The Colts pass defense has only allowed an average of 207.5 passing yards per game, but they’ve allowed seven touchdowns through the air, and opposing quarterbacks have posted a 104.0 passer rating against them. There don’t seem to be any concerns regarding his shoulder for this game so look for him to continue the in-season improvements we’ve seen.
Our Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay has +575 odds!
Other Plays
Melvin Gordon, RB, DEN
It could be some tough sledding for Gordon and the rest of the Broncos running game, as the Colts are allowing fewer than 90 rushing yards per game. However, with Shaq Leonard out with a concussion, the Colts don’t get that extra push up the middle that lends a hand to DeForest Buckner, so if the Broncos offensive line can move the defensive linemen laterally, Gordon will find some holes.
Michael Pittman, WR, IND
He is Ryan’s go-to guy, and will continue to lead the team in snaps and targets. Coverage from Ronald Darby and Patrick Surtain on the outside will be tough, but he is easily the Colts most dangerous weapon so expect him to be heavily involved and work for each and every yard he picks up.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, DEN
He may be second in targets, but Jeudy has been playing as hard as Sutton and continues to be a factor both in the short passing and the looks downfield. He’s only averaging between five and six targets per game, but he’s got multiple red zone looks and two touchdowns to his credit. As Wilson gets more and more comfortable (and a little more autonomy at the line), Jeudy should continue to show steady improvement and production.
Matt Ryan, QB, IND
While the Colts have been a veritable disaster, you cannot argue against two 300-yard efforts and the fact that he is coming off back-to-back multi-touchdown games. With no Jonathan Taylor, the Colts are going to have to lean a little more on Ryan and his passing, so, despite the fact that Denver ranks sixth in DVOA against the pass, expect a strong effort through the air, including all those valuable dump-offs to the running backs.
Deon Jackson, RB, IND
He’s only taken two snaps through the first four games of the season, so there is a strong unknown factor we are dealing with here. Coming out of college (Duke), he was lauded for his vision, his patience to let the holes develop and find his way through defenses, and his speed – not explosive but fast enough to beat the edge rushers outside. He was criticized for not picking up yards after contact, so it should be interesting to see how the Colts deploy him. Hines won’t carry the full load, but if the Colts don’t activate Lindsay, Jackson could see some decent touches.
Mike Boone, RB, DEN
It’s difficult to know just how much of a workload Boone will get, but he seems to be the complementary back for the Broncos this week. They’ll keep him as involved as he needs to be behind Gordon, but Boone can catch passes out of the backfield, so he could see a 35-40% share of the snaps and touches, depending on how Gordon is performing.
Eric Saubert, TE, DEN
Slowly but surely, Saubert has surpassed Albert Okwuebunam as the Broncos lead tight end. Last week, he saw 77 percent of the snaps and was the only tight end targeted in the passing game. The Colts have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the tight end and rank 28th in DVIA against the position this year, so if Saubert is the one seeing all the work, he makes for a solid pay-down tonight.
Mo Alie-Cox, TE, DEN
Locking in Alie-Cox into your lineups feels like chasing after his two-score game last week, but he does garner the most snaps and has run the most routes of any Colts tight end. The Broncos rank 15th in DVOA against the position, so look for more red zone targets from the big guy.
Alec Pierce, WR, IND
The rookie came back from his injury after Week 2 and continued to earn roughly 45 percent of the snaps while also receiving the second-most targets of any of the Colts receivers. He’ll also be dealing with Darby and Surtain, but Ryan continues to look in his direction, especially when he needs to move the chains on third down.
Kendall Hinton, WR, DEN
He seems to have surpassed Hamler as the No. 3 receiver. and he’s being used primarily out of the slot where he’ll match up with Kenny Moore, an advantageous match-up if you study the coverage numbers. With an increasing target share, he’s a little better than a dart throw here.
KJ Hamler, WR, DEN
But we don’t want to forget Hamler, especially if he is working out of the slot against Moore, simply because of his speed with getting him the separation he needs. The targets are few and far between, but in the right coverage, Wilson can lead Hamler with a pass, and then it’s off to the races.
Parris Campbell, WR, IND
He’s borderline dart-throw material because, while he plays a ton of snaps, he doesn’t really see the targets. Maybe Ryan doesn’t pay the slot receiver much mind, or maybe they just haven’t been able to carve out a relationship on the field, but if you’re looking to get a little weird with your lineups, here it is.
**Don’t forget about the defenses as well. Denver’s defense is preferred, but the Colts have been known to be opportunistic on turnovers too.
Our NFL expert Clevta has chosen his best bets for Thursday Night Football!
Dart Throws
Latavius Murray, RB, DEN
We watched Murray rumble into the end zone for the Saints during the London game, but they put him back onto the practice squad where Denver was free and clear to sign him for depth. He’s obviously in game shape, so perhaps he gets the ball near the goal line, as his size could help him push through for a short touchdown.
Philip Lindsay, RB, IND
A super-deep dive as Lindsay, at the time of writing this, is still on the Colts practice squad. But how about the ultimate revenge-game narrative that put the former Bronco into the end zone against his former team?
For additional NFL DFS Week 5 insights, check out our full coverage on Fantasy Alarm
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