NFL Week 11 DFS continues with a classic NFC West battle between the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals in Mexico City. This marks the fifth and final international installment of the 2022 NFL season and there are a lot of outside factors in play. First off, we have the altitude, which thins the air and can make it tougher on the players if they aren’t prepared. We also have thunderstorms in the forecast, so this game could even get a little sloppy. On top of that, we also won’t know until much closer to game time if Kyler Murray will be under center for Arizona.
As a result, building NFL DFS Showdown lineups could get a little complicated, so make sure you have a few options and pivots set up for some last-minute changes. Follow both the NFL injury and weather reports to make sure you are completely in tune with what is going on and our player recommendations should take care of the rest.
Please note that players not listed below are not necessarily a complete fade and any player listed could certainly be used as the MVP/Captain. These are merely suggestions for players to use when setting showdown lineups.
MVP/Captain
Christian McCaffrey, 49ers running back
Christian McCaffrey is a pretty obvious choice for the top spot in your lineup as there are numerous things working in his favor. The Cardinals may only allow an average of 110.5 rushing yards per game, but they’ve given up 12 rushing touchdowns on the year. In addition to that, Arizona ranks 30th in DVOA against running back pass plays and allow the 12th-most fantasy points per game to the running back position.
George Kittle, 49ers tight end
While most lean on the 49ers’ ground game, you don’t want to sleep on Kittle as the Cardinals rank 31st in DVOA against the tight end and also allow the most fantasy points per game to the position. Heading into the Week 9 bye, Kittle had back-to-back games with a touchdown, so while he saw only 2 targets last week, he should be more actively involved this week.
Kyler Murray/Colt McCoy, Cardinals quarterback
There aren’t many ways to attack the 49ers defense, so if you’re looking to go contrarian with your top spot, Murray or McCoy, whichever guy gets the start, would be the way to go. San Francisco is allowing fewer than 200 passing yards per game, but we expect the Cardinals to be playing from behind and forced into throwing even more heavily than they already do. Also, with the 49ers pass-rush as strong as it is, Murray (and to an extent, McCoy) should be able to pick up some rushing yards to add his totals.
Be sure to check out our full San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals predictions
Mid-Tier and DFS Value Plays
Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers wide receiver
We’ve seen a bit of a shift in the 49ers’ targets pecking order and it’s not just about McCaffrey coming in and taking away touches and targets. Over the last 4 games, Brandon Aiyuk has paced the receivers with 35 targets which he’s turned into an average of 7 catches for 82 yards per game with 3 touchdowns. He gets moved around a lot, but we should see him opposite Trayvon Mullen most of the time and that’s a favorable matchup, for sure.
DeAndre Hopkins, Cardinals wide receiver
Plain and simple, if DeAndre Hopkins is playing, you’re going to want to get him into your lineups. He is the target leader when he is on the field and the game plan is to force-feed him as often as possible. Yes, his hamstring issue is a bit concerning, so keep an eye out for any late-breaking news regarding his status for the game. If there are no restrictions, we’re fine. If we find out he’s on any sort of a snap count, we’re out.
Rondale Moore, Cardinals wide receiver
While we may not know who is quarterbacking the Cardinals until closer to game time, we can at least take solace in knowing that if Hopkins is at less than 100%, Moore is going to see a significant target share in this game. The 49ers defense is strong, but they struggle against slot receivers, ranking 31st in DVOA against them this season. Moore has seen 31 targets over his last 3 games, which shows you that, no matter who is under center, he’s getting the work.
Deebo Samuel, 49ers wide receiver
Funny as it seems, rostering Deebo Samuel is probably considered a contrarian move these days. The masses are way off him right now due to a diminishing workload ever since the arrival of McCaffrey and while it’s tough to blame them with his 7 catches for 66 yards over his last 2 games, he still has a significant advantage of the Arizona cover corners. You probably need to be building more than one lineup to even consider using him, but we’ve seen stranger things happen in showdown slates.
Elijah Mitchell, 49ers running back
Many were shocked to see Elijah Mitchell getting 18 carries in his first game since being activated from Injured Reserve, especially with McCaffrey in town, but that’s what Kyle Shanahan does. He loves rotating his running backs and to have two who are as strong as Mitchell and McCaffrey, you can expect more work for both. McCaffrey will be the lead, but Mitchell is going to see enough touches to be a productive member of your lineup, especially against this soft Arizona defense.
James Conner, Cardinals running back
We like James Conner if Murray is under center but we LOVE Conner if it’s McCoy. With McCoy under center last week, Conner saw 21 carries out of the backfield along with 3 targets and should Murray be out, Conner is likely to see a fairly heavy workload once again. The 49er run defense is solid, allowing just 82.7 rushing yards per game but they have given up 8 rushing touchdowns, so if the Cardinals get inside that green zone, Conner should see some promising touches.
Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers quarterback
There’s nothing wrong with sneaking in Jimmy Garoppolo should you believe that he can throw multiple touchdowns to get the proper value. Arizona is allowing an average of 247.1 passing yards per game with 17 passing touchdowns allowed on the season, so it’s not like we’re worried about the matchup. He’s got the weapons to succeed, including running backs who are dynamite at catching passes out in the flat, so if you have the budget and think he can connect with more than one pass-catcher, he should offer up solid value.
San Francisco 49ers D/ST
Given some of the injuries on the Arizona offensive line and the possibility the Cardinals are forced to start McCoy, the 49ers defense can certainly be used in tonight’s contests as a way to save salary. San Francisco may have only 10 takeaways on the year, but the 49ers have the 6th-most sacks this season and their pass-rush could certainly make things difficult for Arizona.
Trey McBride, Cardinals tight end
Probably closer to a dart-throw here as rookie tight end Trey McBride may be set for more of a featured role with Zach Ertz injured, but the 49ers rank 11th in DVOA against the tight end and they allow the 6th-fewest fantasy points per game. If you are a multi-lineup player, then maybe get some minor exposure here, but McBride has much better matchups ahead.
A.J. Green/Robbie Anderson, Cardinals wide receivers
Green and Anderson are pretty much the same guy at this point. If you’re interested in wishing and hoping for a long touchdown, then use a flier on one of these two. Doesn’t matter which one.
Also keep in mind that both kickers – Robbie Gould and Matt Prater – are in-play this week. With the game taking place in Mexico City, we have altitude to consider, like in Denver games. That means the ball can travel further so perhaps a few longer-than-usual field goals tonight.
Get our best Monday Night Football player prop bets
Dart Throw DFS Plays
Jauan Jennings, 49ers wide receiver
Jauan Jennings is as good a dart-throw as any from the remaining 49ers players, but working in his favor is that he does actually see targets. Maybe not a lot, but all it takes is one to pay off his minuscule salary.
Keaontay Ingram, Cardinals running back
The touches have been relatively non-existent so far, but there has to be a reason the Cardinals opted to cut Eno Benjamin early last week. If Keaontay Ingram can get even just a minor share of the workload, especially if Murray is out, I could see him getting some work inside the red zone.
For additional NFL DFS Week 11 coverage, check out our full coverage on Fantasy Alarm
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