Ricky Dimon
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NFL Week 9 kicks off with Thursday Night Football and that means we have an NFL DFS Showdown slate to play. If you weren’t sure what the matchup between the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles and the 1-5-1 Houston Texans would look like, the 13.5-point spread probably gives you a better idea. We know the Eagles are going to score points and with their variety of weapons, it does make things a bit more complicated. The passing attack is high-flying, but do they really need all that firepower to win this one? On the other side, the Texans are in a tough spot; they know they need to try and run the ball, but should they fall behind early it could just be an aerial assault. Game flow is always important, and we think we have nailed it with our evaluation of players for Thursday’s action.
**Please note that players not listed below are not necessarily a complete fade and any player listed can certainly be used as the MVP/Captain. These are merely suggestions for players to use when setting Showdown lineups.**
MVP/Captain
Miles Sanders, RB, PHI
The point spread alone should tell you how this game is going to go, but if looking for added reasons as to why Sanders is going to live in my captain’s seat tonight, we can look to his 16 carries per game average and match that up with the Texans missing Maliek Collins up the middle and how they allow the most rushing yards per game (186.0) and have coughed up 10 rushing touchdowns this season. The Eagles passing attack will likely get theirs, but Sanders should be the one leaned on most.
Jalen Hurts, QB, PHI
If you think the Eagles are going to treat this game the way the Bills treat every opponent, then Hurts is likely your choice for the top spot. He is pricey and you will probably need a solid pay-down and maybe also a dart throw in that lineup, but with Hurts rushing ability and how much the Texans’ corners struggle in coverage, he is going to rack up some strong fantasy points Thursday.
Dameon Pierce, RB, HOU
If the Eagles’ defense has a weakness, it’s against the run, with 114.7 rushing yards per game and 6 rushing touchdowns allowed this season. Usually teams fall behind and abandon the run, so the yardage allowed could be a little higher. Head coach Lovie Smith is not one of those coaches, so look for him to keep Pierce as heavily involved as he can. It also helps that the Eagles rank 21st in DVOA against running-back pass plays and Pierce has averaged 5 targets per game over the Texans’ last 4.
Be sure to check out our full Philadelphia Eagles vs Houston Texans predictions
Mid-Tier DFS Plays
Eagles D/ST
I was really close to using Philadelphia’s defense in the captain’s seat, so don’t dismiss the unit just because of where it is listed here. The Eagles lead the league in takeaways with 16 on the season (10 interceptions, 6 fumble recoveries) and 23 sacks. They also just acquired Robert Quinn from the Bears, so they have added an elite pass-rusher to bolster the defense. Captain seat or not, these guys are a great play.
A.J. Brown, WR, PHI
The matchup against Steve Nelson is a solid one, though it’s tough to think Brown is going to be held in check for this game. Hurts has been in love with Brown on the field and routinely looks his way, as evidenced by the nine targets per game average. Don’t expect him to light it up for three touchdowns like he did last week against the Steelers, but there is no reason to think he will be held out of the endzone on Thursday.
DeVonta Smith, WR, PHI
While Smith isn’t seeing the target share Brown is seeing, he is still very much a focal point of this Eagles passing attack. He is seeing an average of 7 targets per game and much of the time will match up with rookie Derek Stingley, a corner who has the Texans ranking 25th in DVOA against the opposing #2 wideout. Most people will drop Brown into their lineups, so if you are looking to be a little different, Smith should be the play.
Davis Mills, QB, HOU
The expectation is that the Eagles will jump out to a commanding lead and that should put the Texans into a pass-heavy scheme in an attempt to keep pace. Despite the tough matchup, Mills is going to be throwing the ball plenty and could prove to be an intriguing play if you are going to lean on Sanders and the Eagles ground game. You probably have to expect a few turnovers, but if he is airing it out then we could get lucky here.
Brandin Cooks, WR, HOU
You have to check on his status throughout the day, as he is still listed as questionable with a wrist injury. On top of that, Cooks has also been pretty vocal about his displeasure with the Texans and his desire to be traded — a move that didn’t happen earlier this week. Will the squeaky wheel get the grease or will the disgruntled employee stay on the sidelines? If he’s in, you play him.
Phillip Dorsett, WR, HOU
We were hoping to see more out of Dorsett last week, but it is apparent that when Cooks is on the field he garners most of Mills’ attention. Dorsett is still a legitimate #2 option in this offense and should step up even more if Cooks is out, so just keep that in mind when pricing out which Texans you can and can’t afford.
Dallas Goedert, TE, PHI
The Texans rank 10th in DVOA against the tight end position and they haven’t been giving up much in the way of fantasy points either. As great of a player as Goedert is, it doesn’t seem like the Eagles are going to rely too heavily on him in this matchup. Maybe he sees some red-zone work, but he is mostly in play if you are a multi-lineup player and are just looking to be different.
Brevin Jordan, TE, HOU
While the Eagles rank 6xth in DVOA against the tight end, they are also allowing just over 51 receiving yards per game to them. With the wide receivers hobbled and inconsistent even when healthy, Jordan could see a few extra looks — especially if Lovie Smith has them in more 2-TE sets.
Chris Moore, WR, HOU
He plays the slot in 3-receiver sets for the Texans and will match up against Avonte Maddox for much of the time. It’s a tough matchup, but we have also seen the Eagles’ defense take its foot off the gas in the second half — so perhaps a big play or 2 is in order.
Quez Watkins, WR, PHI
Watkins is probably closer to a dart throw than a value play, but you never know. Desmond King is banged up and questionable, so if the Eagles are having some fun out there and taking some random deep shots downfield, maybe Watkins gets a little action.
**Both kickers, Jake Elliott and Ka’imi Fairbairn, can be used as salary-savers if you need. Fairbairn would probably be my first choice, hoping for more field-goal attempts.**
Get our best Thursday Night Football prop bets
Dart Throw DFS Plays
Kenneth Gainwell, RB, PHI
I like Gainwell for mop-up duty in the 2nd half, especially if the Eagles are up big. He can catch passes out in the flat and can take it between the tackles should the team just be looking to chew up the clock. If he can get into the endzone because the Texans’ run defense is so bad, then happy accident I say.
O.J. Howard, TE, HOU
This is a dart throw like any other, but we have seen Howard sneak away with some decent plays every so often. The Texans are going to have to get creative with the injuries they’re dealing with on offense, so perhaps they deploy Howard as a receiver a little more while they are in catch-up mode.
For additional NFL DFS Week 9 coverage, check out our full coverage on Fantasy Alarm
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