We have an amazing matchup on Thursday Night Football to kick off NFL Week 4, as Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins head north to take on Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals in a battle of AFC contenders. The Vegas line of Bengals -3.5 tells us it’s going to be a close, hard-fought game and the game total of 48 indicates we’re in for some exciting scoring. When you have the speed and talent of guys like Tyreek Hill and Ja’Marr Chase, it’s easy to see why.
Now it’s about taking these top players and building yourself a winning DFS Showdown lineup. Of course, to get the top score you will need a few bargain plays to mix in, so let’s get to it and see which direction you want to take.
MVP/Captain
Ja’Marr Chase, WR, CIN
There is so much working in favor of Chase tonight, especially as your potential captain. First of all, most people default to the quarterback as their top play — so there is potential lower ownership. Then you have the Dolphins with the second-most passing yards per game allowed to go along with 6 touchdowns given up through the air. And then on top of all of that, you have Xavien Howard banged up. If he is not at 100 percent and needs to miss time on the field, Nik Needham will be tasked with covering Chase. That’s the kind of matchup we are all here for tonight.
Joe Burrow, QB, CIN
We enjoyed watching Burrow right the ship in Week 3 and he has slowly worked his way back from the appendectomy that sidelined him towards the tail end of the preseason. Now he has a matchup against a struggling pass defense with a banged-up secondary that has seen opposing quarterbacks post a strong 104.2 passer rating. We can expect another strong performance from Burrow.
Tyreek Hill, WR, MIA
The Bengals aren’t going to shadow Hill in this game, especially because it sounds like Jaylen Waddle will play. That being said, Hill has some tough matchups against Chidobe Awuzie and Mike Hilton. However, the speedy WR is lining up all over the field; look for Miami to try and get Hill opposite Eli Apple as much as possible. That is the vulnerable part of the Bengals’ secondary and the Dolphins should try to work this angle as much as possible.
Other Plays
Tee Higgins, WR, CIN
How do you not love Higgins this week? It’s a borderline spot in the captain’s seat for me, as the Dolphins rank 23rd in DVOA against the opposition’s No. 2 receiver. You also have to account for the potential that the Fins have to shift around coverage to account for potential injuries, so while Higgins may get a bump in value, so does Chase. He may not be in my top spot, but I’ll still be getting Higgins’ points into my lineups.
Jaylen Waddle, WR, MIA
While Waddle is listed as questionable with a groin injury, he is fully expected to play. As such, you always need to be concerned that these two offenses just start throwing haymakers at each other and we get a little something like we saw when Miami played the Ravens — maybe not to that extent given the Bengals cover corners, but it won’t be for a lack of trying.
Joe Mixon, RB, CIN
He was pulled off the official injury report after Wednesday’s practice, so the ankle tweak he dealt with in Week 3 is behind him. Mixon is off to a slower start than we’d like to see, but then again, so are all the Bengals. The offensive line is still trying to gel and the Bengals are routinely a team that uses the pass to set up the run, so if the pass isn’t clicking then the run game certainly won’t be. That should change tonight, as Burrow and company showed signs of line upon which to build last week. The trickle-down to Mixon isn’t far behind.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, MIA
We all still have images of a wobbly Tua trying to get off the field last week, but he was cleared of any sort of concussion during the game and the residual effects seem to be in his back, not in his head. It’s a tough matchup given the Bengals’ strength in coverage, but things are clicking for Mike McDaniel’s offense and we can expect to see a productive Tua under center for this battle against a Bengals club looking to right the ship in the AFC.
Chase Edmonds, RB, MIA
The Bengals’ run defense has been strong this season, holding the opposition to an average of just 86 rushing yards per game with only one rushing touchdown allowed. So it could be slow at first for Edmonds and the Dolphins ground game. McDaniel is splitting the work in the backfield between Edmonds and Mostert, but it’s been Edmonds who has seen the rushing work inside the 10-yard-line near the goal line. We’ll lean on the touchdown upside here if we are using anyone in this Dolphins backfield.
Raheem Mostert, RB, MIA
He becomes a decent contrarian play, as anyone who does use a Miami running back in their lineup will likely try to go with Edmonds following his 2 touchdowns last week. Mostert has seen more snaps but that seems to be more of a testament to his pass-blocking as Edmonds has out-touched him. Still, McDaniel brought Mostert with him from San Francisco for a reason and he does like to rotate his backs.
Tyler Boyd, WR, CIN
One would think that, on any other team, Boyd’s target share would be ridiculous, but because he sits behind Chase and Higgins he doesn’t see the work maybe he really should be seeing. Miami has ranked 19th in DVOA against slot receivers this season and Boyd’s 14 targets this season have had a strong return of 10 catches for 155 yards and 2 touchdowns, including last week’s 56-yard touchdown. People also may have missed his 4-yard score last week that got wiped out due to a holding penalty, so you know Burrow has his eyes on him.
Hayden Hurst, TE, CIN
Through the first 2 games, Hurst saw a surprising 15 targets and while he failed to find the endzone at all, seeing him as strongly incorporated into the passing game was encouraging. Last week he battled a groin injury and was held out of action in a game well in hand, so look for him to get back into Burrow’s sights this week. Miami ranks 30th in DVOA against the tight end and the opposition is throwing an average of 10 passes to the position, resulting in 80-plus yards per game when facing them.
Mike Gesicki, TE, MIA
While he has been out-snapped by Durham Smythe, it is still Gesicki who is running more routes. The Bengals are allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points per game to the tight-end position due in part to a battle against Mark Andrews, but just because Gesicki isn’t on that level doesn’t mean he can’t produce.
Dart Throws
Samaje Perine, RB, CIN
He has been seeing 3rd-down work even with Mixon healthy, so you have to keep an eye on him. It’s not so much that we’re worried about Mixon’s ankle as much as it is Zac Taylor’s preference for Perine’s blocking. If you want a contrarian salary saver, Perine should warrant consideration.
Durham Smythe, TE, MIA
Smythe has the same number of targets as Gesicki and has even played a few more snaps. He gets the offensive game-plan and McDaniel likes his blocking more than Gesicki’s so expect him to be in play tonight. Again, the Bengals are weak against tight ends and if Miami is near the goal line then Smythe’s big body will be seen by Tua.
For additional NFL DFS Week 4 coverage, check out our full coverage on Fantasy Alarm
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