Week 5 NFL DFS continues with a spectacular AFC West matchup on Monday Night Football as Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs host Derek Carr and the Las Vegas Raiders. If the Chiefs win this one, they’ll take control of the division early on, but if the Raiders manage to pull off the upset at Arrowhead Stadium, this division will tighten up a whole lot more.
The game total of 52 points indicates exactly what we’ve known about these AFC West games – it’s set to be a shootout and neither team is backing down. If you are playing the DFS Showdown slate, it’s going to take some savvy lineup building to differentiate from the pack. A lot of chalk will hit, so it’s where you go for the contrarian deep dives that will prove to be the winning decision
MVP/Captain
Travis Kelce, Chiefs tight end
Surprisingly Travis Kelce is not the most expensive guy on the slate so we’ll take advantage of the discount and lock him up. The Raiders rank 21st in DVOA against the tight end and have allowed the 8th-most fantasy points to the position this season. Kelce has 100-yard efforts in 3 of his last 4 games against Las Vegas and 2 touchdowns in his last 4 against them.
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs quarterback
It’ll cost you, but it’s obviously worth it. Over his last 5 starts against the Raiders, Patrick Mahomes has averaged 305.4 passing yards with 2.4 touchdowns per game and has a 106.9 passer rating against them in that span. He’s stayed under the 300-yard mark in each of his last 3 starts, but we’re digging the 11:2 TD:INT ratio and the 66.4% completion rate this season.
Davante Adams, Raiders wide receiver
Josh McDaniels will do whatever he has to do to move Davante Adams away from L’Jarius Sneed, the only defensive back worth his salt in the Chiefs secondary. Keeping him away will open things up for another double-digit target day for Adams, who has had 2 100-yard efforts and scored 3 touchdowns this season. Kansas City ranks 29th in DVOA against the opposing No. 1 receiver and they’ve allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position on the whole.
Be sure to check out our full Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs predictions
Mid-Tier DFS Plays
Derek Carr, Raiders quarterback
Derek Carr has been surprisingly sturdy over his last 5 starts against the Chiefs, posting an average of 273.6 passing yards and 2 touchdowns per game with a 71.5% completion rating and a 99.7 passer rating. He’s been forcing the ball to Adams in recent games, but will finally get Hunter Renfrow back and still has his usual arsenal. With a projected game total of 52, he should be slinging the rock to keep pace with Mahomes.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs running back
Andy Reid has shown a lot of faith in Clyde Edwards-Helaire this season and it’s paying off in the numbers. Despite last week’s 19 carries in a blowout win, he’s never going to be that 20-carry back, but his usage, particularly in the red and green zones has not only been encouraging, but has also resulted in 5 touchdowns on the year. The Raiders have allowed only 103.3 rushing yards per game this season, but they have allowed 5 rushing touchdowns this year and give up the 7th-most fantasy points per game to the running back position.
Darren Waller, Raiders tight end
The Chiefs have done a solid job against tight ends this season, ranking 7th in DVOA and allowing the 7th-fewest fantasy points per game to them. But there is a vulnerability over the middle that teams are trying to exploit, sending an average of 9 passes for 52 yards per game their way. Darren Waller hasn’t been leaned on as much this year but averages 7 targets per game against the Raiders and has found the end zone in 2 of his last 3 games against them.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chiefs wide receiver
We’ll have to see what his condition is like in pre-game warmups tonight as JuJu has been limited all week with a hamstring issue and remains listed as questionable. Still, he is the most-targeted receiver on this Chiefs team and he can move back and forth between the outside and the slot. We’re still waiting for the breakout game for him, but he’s seen 8 targets in 3 of the 4 games this season and it is only a matter of time before he scores.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chiefs wide receiver
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has garnered the 2nd-most targets from Mahomes of all the Chiefs receivers and is routinely used as the deep threat, as evidenced by the double-digit aDOT in 2 of the 4 games this season. The results haven’t exactly been there for MVS, but expect Mahomes to seek him out downfield as his speed will give him solid separation from both Rock Ya-Sin and Amik Robertson.
Josh Jacobs, Raiders running back
The Chiefs have been pretty stingy against the run this season, allowing just 65.8 rushing yards per game this season. However, in addition to the 2 rushing touchdowns they’ve allowed, they have given up the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the running back position. Josh Jacobs is coming off a huge game against Denver, but what’s might be most important to us is that he’s seen 11 targets in the last 2 games and he’s produced 10 catches for 62 yards. The Chiefs rank 28th in DVOA against running-back pass plays, so the hope is that Jacobs remains a feature in the passing attack.
Hunter Renfrow, Raiders wide receiver
It’s Hunter Renfrow’s first game back since suffering a concussion in Week 2, so it is difficult to evaluate his usage. He saw 16 targets through the first 2 games, so we expect him to remain an active part of the game-plan. As we said before, the Chiefs are allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, so if Renfrow is good to go, you can expect him to be a solid PPR asset.
Mecole Hardman, Chiefs wide receiver
The Raiders rank 30th in DVOA against slot receivers this season and while Reid continues to move his receivers all over the field, Hardman, who ranks 3rd in targets among wideouts on this team, has lined up out of the slot 45% of the time. If that trend continues, we’d like to consider him as a contrarian play with no one even looking at him after seeing just 1 target in each of his last 2 games. It’s a tough road, but sometimes you have to go the other way.
Skyy Moore, Chiefs wide receiver
We’d like to think Skyy Moore is a bit of a contrarian play as well, but the masses will look at how weird Week 5 was for many unheralded players and then see his 4 targets last week during the blowout against Tampa Bay. He profiles as a slot receiver and we know there is a vulnerability there for the Raiders. If you’re setting multiple lineups and are trying to play “guess the Chiefs receiver” this week, then you might want to look his way.
Mack Hollins, Raiders wide receiver
Mack Hollins actually makes for a favorite contrarian play for me because, with the return of Renfrow, most mainstream players will assume Hollins’ days of strong targets are behind him. However, with the Chiefs’ defense likely focusing on Adams, Renfrow and Waller, Hollins could sneak in as a deep threat and haul in one or two of those long passes we’ve seen him grab over the past few weeks. If one of them hits for a touchdown, you’re in business.
Jerick McKinnon, RB KC, Chiefs running back
If this game goes a little sideways for the Chiefs and the Raiders make a little noise early, we could see Jerick McKinnon show up more on some third-down work. He’s played almost 50% of the snaps through the first 3 weeks, only yielding time to Isiah Pacheco last week in a blowout. If you think the Raiders can surprise the Chiefs, you can save some money and sneak McKinnon into your lineup.
Get our best Monday Night Football touchdown scorer bets
Dart Throw DFS Plays
Brandon Bolden, Raiders running back
It’s a dart-throw for sure, but one that could have some nice validity for tonight’s action. Again, the Chiefs rank 28th in DVOA against running back pass-plays and if the Raiders go into catchup mode, we are likely to see an increase in snaps and usage for McDaniels’ favorite, Bolden. You can build a lineup with all 3 captains from above and use Bolden to squeeze in one more mid-tier player, so it’s worth a shot.
Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs running back
When the Chiefs are ahead and the game is well in hand, we’ve seen Reid go to rookie Pacheco thanks to his versatility. He’s capable of being that every-down back Reid covets, but he’s still a little too green and will have to continue proving himself. You’ll have to wait for the second half for him, but, if he starts getting snaps in a blowout, he could produce some points.
For additional NFL DFS Week 5 coverage, check out our full coverage on Fantasy Alarm
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