NFL Week 7 DFS is set to wrap up with a Monday Night Football Showdown slate featuring the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots. Unfortunately, this game will also feature Mother Nature, who is throwing rain into the forecast. Showers are expected to persist both pregame as well as during much of the first half, so we can probably expect a bit of a sluggish and sloppy performance from both teams. The game total of 40 indicates a low-scoring affair and we expect both teams to follow a run-heavy game-plan.
Of course, it doesn’t matter what the final score is for DFS purposes. We just need to make sure we have the right players in our DFS lineups, so let’s get to it.
MVP/Captain
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, NE
Stevenson is still the leader of this backfield as he’s been the snap leader throughout this season, even before his backfield partner got hurt. His carries may be reduced now that he is returning to a time-share, but we are looking at quality over quantity now and against the Bears — who allow the 2nd-most rushing yards per game (163.0) and have given up 9 rushing touchdowns on the year, Stevenson should be able to break through for some chunk yardage. He also sees more passes out of the backfield, so he can add a few extra fantasy points for you that way as well.
Patriots D/ST
The defense is what has been killing it for the Patriots over the last 2 games as they have allowed just 15 total points in two weeks and rank fourth in the NFL with 12 takeaways. They also have 17 sacks on the season and considering this is Bill Belichick against an inexperienced quarterback and an inexperienced head coach, things could get ugly for the Bears in a hurry.
David Montgomery, RB, CHI
If there is a weakness in this Patriots defense, it’s against the run and Montgomery could find himself used a little more than usual due to that fact. They have only allowed 2 rushing touchdowns on the year, but they do allow almost 120 rushing yards per game. They also rank 28th in DVOA against running back pass-plays, so look for the Bears to try and attack them that way should the weather keep the field a little wet and sloppy.
Be sure to check out our full Chicago Bears vs. New England Patriots predictions
Mid-Tier DFS Plays
Damien Harris, RB, NE
He has made his way back from a hamstring issue that kept him off the field last week and most of the week before, but after logging full practices over the past several days, Harris is ready to get back into the swing of things. Prior to the injury, he was averaging 13 carries per game and had found the end zone in three-straight. He should be ready to carry the same load tonight and should be able to handle a slick field in a game we expect to see some showers. Harris usually handles the short-yardage work, including the goal-line carries, so his chances of punching one in seem pretty good.
Mac Jones, QB, NE
Although he is still listed as questionable due to the high-ankle sprain he suffered back in Week 4, Jones is expected to start after logging limited practices Thursday through Saturday. The weather isn’t expected to be great, which will likely limit how much throwing he does — not to mention the Bears are much more vulnerable against the run anyway. Still he should be able to play an efficient game and reconnect with some of his receivers when the opportunity presents itself. Should the Patriots decide the weather puts Jones at too much of a risk, Bailey Zappe will step in again and rates very similarly.
Justin Fields, QB, CHI
We saw some really nice growth from Fields during the last two weeks and he started to look a little more comfortable getting the ball into the hands of his receivers. But everyone knows Belichick lives rent-free in the heads of every young quarterback and the mad genius is gong to make it extremely difficult for him. But given Fields’ ability to run with the ball, his fantasy floor is raised just a bit and if he can be even a little productive offensively, then that plus the rushing totals could present a decent value.
Jakobi Meyers, WR, NE
Meyers is your typical Patriots top target working mostly out of the slot and seeing a boatload of targets. He will see a lot of Kyler Gordon in coverage which certainly tips the scales in favor of Meyers, so look for him to get peppered with targets once Jones works himself into a rhythm. The weather may have some effect on the passing game, but considering the majority of his work comes in the form of short, quick timing-routes, he should still be active enough to return proper value.
Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, CHI
Not only is cornerback Jalen Mills banged up, but he is also at a physical disadvantage against St. Brown — who has slotted in nicely as the Bears’ #2 receiver. The targets haven’t been abundant, but considering where the Bears may have even the slightest advantage, the hope is Matt Eberflus will have Fields looking for this coverage mismatch as much as he can.
Khalil Herbert, RB, CHI
He has earned a share of the carries, although some people seem to be elevating him into a full time-share with Montgomery. A 50/50 split seems unlikely, but Herbert has been given enough touches inside the green zone to make him relevant for a Showdown lineup. He just needs to work on his power and keep those legs churning in short-yardage situations.
DeVante Parker, WR, NE
It’s a bit of a tough matchup for Parker, who is expected to see a lot of Jaylon Johnson in coverage. But the Bears do rank 15th in DVOA against the opposition’s X-receiver. The targets have been up-and-down based on the matchups, so don’t expect anything huge — but he could be effective if Jones finds a groove.
Bears D/ST
If the game is going to be wet and sloppy and the Patriots are bringing back a potentially rusty Mac Jones and Damien Harris, perhaps the Bears’ defense can capitalize on a few turnovers. We expect the scoring to be down anyway, so a few sacks and fumbles could be the winner here.
Kendrick Bourne, WR, NE
Bourne is questionable still with a toe issue so you will have to check on his status before game time. You can always expect a small handful of targets when he is out there and he does get looks inside the red zone, so if you are looking to get a little different with your lineup, this might be an avenue to explore.
Tyquan Thornton, WR, NE
He’s everyone’s darling in the seasonal world, so expect a fair amount of ownership. Thornton hauled in a pair of touchdowns last week but before you start salivating at the possibilities, understand the targets could be extremely inconsistent should the Patriots have all their receivers available for the game. His a little better than a dart-throw but, again, expect a relatively high ownership from the masses.
Hunter Henry, TE, NE
The Bears may not give up a ton of fantasy points to the tight end, but they do rank 19th in DVOA against the position. Henry gets a few targets per game and has found some nice open space at times. With the weather, the passing game should be shortened up plenty — which could put the ball in Henry’s hands if the Bears continue to struggle in coverage.
Darnell Mooney, WR, CHI
He really blossomed last week, enough to give his fantasy owners hope. But in DFS it’s likely to be a different story this week. The Patriots cover the opposing #1 receiver well and Belichick always schemes to take away the top weapons. Mooney would be more of a contrarian pick for us, though the general public may buy into his targets from last week.
Dante Pettis, WR, CHI
His target share has crept up over the last couple of weeks and we saw him catch a nice, long touchdown pass from Fields last week. The passing game may be shortened up due to the weather, but Pettis — who typically works out of the slot — could see some decent targets underneath in traffic.
Cole Kmet, TE, CHI
The Patriots rank 5th in DVOA against the tight end, but they do allow an average of 42.1 receiving yards per game to them. Kmet is a big-bodied target who Fields looks for when he needs to move the chains. The hope is that he also gets some looks if/when the Bears find themselves inside the red zone.
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Dart Throw DFS Plays
Ryan Griffin, TE, CHI
We have seen Griffin get the occasional red zone look, so with the scoring in this game expected to be down, he becomes a nice contrarian play to all those Kmet-truthers out there.
Nelson Agholor, WR, NE
He remains questionable for tonight’s game, so keep an eye on the inactives once they are announced. If he plays, he is always good for a few sideline routes and if the rain holds off at any point then he is the guy the Pats like to send downfield for all the longs touchdown chances.
For additional NFL DFS Week 7 coverage, check out our full coverage on Fantasy Alarm
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