Caleb Wilfinger
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Following a long and grueling season, the NFL playoffs are finally here. Super Wild Card Weekend gets underway on Saturday with a a pair of games in the AFC playoffs, as the Cleveland Browns take on the Houston Texas in what is the opening game of this weekend’s action.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which kick off at 4:30 pm ET on NBC. Also be sure to check out our full Browns vs Texans predictions.
Browns -2.5 (-104)
Under 44.5 (-110)
David Njoku to record a touchdown (+195)
Parlay odds: +901
Browns -2.5 (-104)
CJ Stroud has been nothing short of incredible for the Texans and is the primary reason Houston is in this situation to begin with. He deserves credit for taking the Texans from a 3-win team a year ago to a playoff team. When first-time playoff quarterbacks go up against quarterbacks who have made previous playoff appearances, the first-timers are only covering the spread at a rate of 38%. Conversely, when you dive a bit deeper into what the Texans have been doing and who they have been beating over the last month, the picture becomes a bit murkier.
Houston has not beaten a top-20 defense since Week 6 and it must now take on the #1-ranked unit in the NFL in the Cleveland Browns. That’s a lot to ask for a rookie quarterback. As amazing as Stroud may be, you’re also asking him to knock off the league’s top defense with perhaps just 1 of his receiving weapons. The Texans’ injuries on offense are beginning to catch up to them, and they only just got past the Colts last week. This Browns’ defense is levels above that unit, and ultimately I like veteran Joe Flacco to humble the young pretenders in this one.
Under 44.5 (-110)
The popular narrative surrounding this game is that the Browns’ defense doesn’t travel nearly as well — and that’s true from a sense of scoring. However, Cleveland also allows the same pass EPA at home versus on the road, and that’s tops in the NFL. It’s also important to remember that the Browns had the luxury of resting a ton of starters last week, allowing their guys to get healthier, and this feels like a great sport for their defense to really make a statement and prove they are a Super Bowl contender — regardless of their quarterback limitations. With Stroud missing key weapons on the Houston offense, I like Cleveland to keep the rookie in check. Let’s roll with the under.
David Njoku to record a touchdown (+195)
While Jerome Ford and Amari Cooper have better odds to record a touchdown in this game, David Njoku has quietly been putting up tremendous numbers with Flacco at the helm of Cleveland’s offense. The veteran tight end has been on fire over the last month, recording 28 receptions for 373 yards and 4 touchdowns since December 10, a stretch that included a 6 catches and a touchdown in a meeting with the Texans just 3 weeks ago. With Houston likely focused on slowing down the Flacco-Cooper connection (Cooper totaled more than 200 receiving yards in the previous meeting), this should leave Njoku with plenty of favorable matchups throughout the contest. Let’s bank on Flacco finding his tight end in the end zone.
