Andrew Ortenberg
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The 2023 NFL season is here at last and we have a juicy Week 1 slate to kickoff the new campaign. There’s a lot of excitement in the air, and what better way to celebrate than by betting a Same Game Parlay? This is an AFC North rivalry matchup between the Bengals and Browns here; for it I have cooked up a SGP.
Here we go:
Cleveland Browns -6.5 alt spread (+255)
Nick Chubb to score 2+ touchdowns (+440)
Nick Chubb to rush for 100+ yards (+172)
Parlay odds: +1185
We have a 3-leg Same Game Parlay, which pays out at north of 11/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
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Cleveland Browns -6.5 alt spread (+255)
To start this same game parlay we have Cleveland on the alt spread. I like the Browns a lot as a home ‘dog here, since I’m expecting some regression from the Bengals in 2023. Joe Burrow had his offseason greatly reduced by the calf injury he suffered in practice, so I don’t think he’s going to come out firing on all cylinders here. And I have major question marks about this Cincy O-line and how they’ll hold up against Myles Garrett and co.
Deshaun Watson didn’t look great down the stretch last year, but that’s because it was his first real game action in almost two years. He was always going to look rusty, and now is the time to buy low before everyone catches up to the fact that he’s still one of the league’s more talented quarterbacks. Cleveland also made a bunch of nice additions this offseason, including adding Elijah Moore to give them another high upside receiver and adding Za’Darius Smith to pair opposite Garrett.
Nick Chubb to score 2+ touchdowns (+440)
This leg correlates nicely with our first one. If the Browns are winning this one on the alt spread, it’s likely because Chubb had a big day on the ground. Just look at 2022. Cleveland split their season series with the Bengals last year, and in the game they lost Chubb was held to just 34 yards on 14 carries. But in the game they won, Chubb had 101 yards and 2 touchdowns. And the year before, Chubb had 137 yards and 2 touchdowns in a win over the Bengals.
Chubb also always seems to start hot, as he had 141 yards in Week 1 of last year and scored 2 TDs in Week 1 the year before. There’s also no more Kareem Hunt in the picture, so Chubb should be seeing even more volume than usual here which will greatly increase his chances of finding the endzone multiple times.
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Nick Chubb to rush for 100+ yards (+172)
This play is also heavily correlated with our first 2. All we really need is one big game from Chubb to cash this parlay at nearly 12/1. Like I just mentioned, Chubb always seems to start the season hot — last season he racked up 113+ rushing yards in 4 of his first 5 games. In the only one where he didn’t, he racked up 87. Chubb has played 5 seasons in the league, and he’s had a 100+ yard rushing day against the Bengals in all 5 of them. He has enjoyed a long history of success against Cincinnati, and I expect him to once again start off on the right foot here at home.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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