NFL Championship Weekend picks, predictions & best bets from NFL expert Jared Smith: Flying high with Philly

There’s just 3 games left this season, 2 of them will be played on Sunday, and I think it’s fair to say that we will be watching the 4 best teams in the NFL. Finally, the committee got it right!

The numbers are also the sharpest they’ve been all year, and as we’ve discussed in prior playoff columns, doing everything possible to manipulate the market in your favor is my preferred strategy.

“I don’t hate that idea moving forward in the playoffs,” said Westgate Senior Risk Supervisor Casey Degnon. “It definitely feels like there is less sharp action involved on the spreads at this point in the week compared to past weeks. Teasers, props, derivatives are all options, and I also like live betting this time of year depending on the situation.”

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Teaser Time: Finding value with postseason teasers

Last week we hit all 3 legs of the round robin, along with basically everybody else as the Chiefs to Eagles turned into one of the most obvious 6-point teasers in NFL postseason history. This week presented another unique opportunity with the Chiefs and Bengals flipping favorites multiple times. I really liked teasing Kansas City through both key numbers at home, and took advantage during the brief time they were underdogs early in the week.

However at the time of publication the Chiefs were back to a slight favorite, thus eliminating virtually all teaser value for the purposes of this column. As discussed last week, I would not recommend teasing through zero. That basically means you’re making the underdog a favorite, or vice versa. The reason why teasing through zero is taboo is because games can’t land on zero, so you’re paying to move the line through a number that has zero chance of being landed on. It’s the equivalent of paying for a dozen donuts but only getting 11 in the box.

Championship market update: What key factors are impacting line movement?

49ers at Eagles, Sunday 3:00 pm ET

When this game first popped up on the radar last week, some oddsmakers forecasted a pick’em, or even the Niners opening as a slight favorite. However the weekend’s results made it abundantly clear that the Eagles deserve to be the favorite in this game, and the market agreed early with an initial move towards Philly from -1.5 to -2.5. It’s been hovering around 2.5 for most of the week, but at the time of publication there was also a slight nudge towards the most key number.

The more I dig into this game the more I like the Eagles as well despite seeing a lot of similarities between both teams. Both have innovative offensive-minded head coaches, both are elite in the trenches, and both have a plethora of offensive weapons that can create explosive plays in versatile ways. But there is one position where I think Philly has an edge, quarterback.

I’ll give Jalen Hurts his flowers a little later in the column, but I do think the Eagles win this game and advance to the Super Bowl thanks to superior play at quarterback. The prop market is intriguing in this game as well, especially if you can find a good number on Christian McCaffrey’s rushing attempts. I bet under at 14.5 and I’m still seeing that available in the market at the time of publication.

McCaffrey was out-carried by Elijah Mitchell 14-10 in Sunday’s win over the Cowboys and was sidelined for much of the 4th quarter with a calf injury. Neither McCaffrey or Mitchell practiced this week and it’s safe to assume neither will be 100%. Throw in game script likely trending negative for San Francisco and you have the recipe for a lighter than average workload for CMC on the ground in this game.

If you’re interested in a touchdown prop, Jalen Hurts has scored in 63% of games this season (10/16) which implies -167 odds. His current price to score is hovering in the +130 range, and is a decent bet at anything more of a coin flip.

Final score prediction: Eagles 27, 49ers 23

Be sure to check out Prop Holliday’s 49ers vs Eagles best player props

Bengals at Chiefs, Sunday 6:30 pm ET

Just like the Bengals offensive line last week, Patrick Mahomes’ ankle provided the media with plenty of fodder to chew on when this line opened a pick’em on Sunday afternoon. We saw peak Cincy money on Tuesday morning at around 8 am PT when the Bengals got all the way up to a 2.5-point favorite. Then on Wednesday Andy Reid gave a positive report, followed by video of Mahomes not limping after leaving the podium and prancing around at practice, which quickly flipped the market back towards the Chiefs.

“It’s definitely more of a challenge but in cases like that you just have to open a number and let the market/action tell you where to go,” said Degnon when asked about how hard it is to set lines when dealing with a star QB injury. “When we opened Chiefs -3 Sunday bets came flooding in on Cincy and pushed us all the way to Cin -1. Just have to keep moving until you find a number that will get you some buy back. I think if the reports continue to be optimistic on Mahome’s ankle then it could close higher maybe even 2.5.”

Personally I just could not fathom a universe where the Chiefs closed as a home underdog in a playoff game with Mahomes under center and it looks like that won’t happen in this game despite the injury. Obviously he will be less than 100%, but the transcendent athletes, which I believe Mahomes to be, always seem to rise to the occasion when adversity strikes. Mahomes still has his eyes, brain and arm, which are all elite. Plus Andy Reid with an extra day to prepare. This truly is a rare opportunity to buy low on one of the great QBs of our generation.

Another angle to consider here is the Chiefs in the first half. I expect Patrick Mahomes to receive a pain injection shot right before the game, which means it will likely start wearing off in the second half. Also, Bengals DC Lou Anarumo is elite at making in-game adjustments, so if there was any hidden value with Kansas City’s offense, it could be early on when Andy Reid still has the element of surprise in his back pocket.

In terms of Chiefs props, I would target Kadarius Toney, who excels in the short-passing game, which should be an emphasis with Mahomes’ limited mobility. Another name to consider is Mecole Hardman, who made a big impact in last year’s AFC title game against the Bengals but hasn’t played since Week 9 with a pelvis injury. Hardman has been limited in practice all week and will be questionable to play on Sunday.

I’m not as bullish on Travis Kelce this week, mainly because he will likely draw the ire of Anarumo, who held Kelce to one of his worst games of the season back in Week 13. I wouldn’t bet under on Kelce, but I’m not running to the window to smash overs like I did last week.

On the Bengals side, Ja’Marr Chase is a must bet in the props market. In 3 career games against the Chiefs Chase has 29 targets, 25 receptions, 417 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. The Chiefs are also 31st in DVOA defending #1 WRs this season.

Final score prediction: Chiefs 24, Bengals 21

Read our full Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs predictions

Championship Weekend Best Bet: Eagles -2.5 (-110)

Scroll up if you want more analysis on this game, but in the big spots I like to try and keep things simple. It starts and ends at quarterback.

Don’t get me wrong, I love Brock Purdy. He’s a great story and deserves a chance at a starting job next season, but Jalen Hurts is playing at an MVP level. The Niners looked vulnerable last week but Dak Prescott made 2 horrific mistakes which cost his team the game. I don’t think Hurts will make those mistakes this week and I believe that will lead to Philadelphia having an equal or positive turnover margin.

Teams that won the turnover battle went 4-0 last weekend and both QBs in this game have been elite in that category this season, with Purdy’s sample size being significantly shorter. The Eagles defense will have a slightly more difficult time getting pressure this week against a Niners offensive line that is amongst the elite units in the NFL but they should get enough pressure to move Purdy off his spot.

Finally, rookie QBs are 0-4 SU on Championship Weekend since 1970, and I expect that trend to continue on Sunday.

Championship Weekend portfolio:

Eagles -2.5 -110 (risk 2.2u at Superbook)
Chiefs ML 1stH -110 (risk 1.1u at South Point)

NFL 2022 best bets: 11-9 (55.0%) +2.53u (+4.8% ROI)

NFL 2022 column: 38-33-1 (53.5%) +3.38u (+2.2% ROI)

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