Andrew Ortenberg
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We’ve got a jam-packed Week 7 slate with a ton of great matchups, including this AFC East rivalry clash between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots. The Bills once again look like Super Bowl contenders while the Pats have been floundering recently and enter at 1-5.
What better way to celebrate the action than by betting a Same Game Parlay? You can also read all our other NFL Week 7 picks here, but now let’s get right into it:
New England Patriots ML (+300)
Rhamondre Stevenson to record 5+ receptions (+320)
Parlay odds: +1683
We have a 2-leg Same Game Parlay which pays out at almost 17/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
New England Patriots ML (+300)
To start this Same Game Parlay we’ve got the Patriots on the money line. If the Giants can come within one play of beating the Bills on the road last week as a +800 ‘dog, the Patriots can certainly do it this week. The Bills showed they’ve got a pretty low floor when they almost lost to Tyrod Taylor and an offense full of backups as 16-point favorites, and they showed the same thing back in Week 1 when they lost to Zach Wilson.
They seem plenty capable of playing down to their level of competition, and outside of one great game against the Dolphins I haven’t really liked what I’ve seen from the Bills. Their other wins this season were the previously mentioned one against the lowly Giants, and against the Raiders and Commanders. The two times this season they’ve had to face solid defenses, against the Jets and Jaguars, they have lost.
New England is snakebitten at the moment and coming off a rough few games, but the Patriots offense finally got going in the second half of last week’s loss to the Raiders which should hopefully give them some momentum entering this one. And Buffalo is missing a bunch of key guys on defense including DaQuan Jones, Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White, so even Mac Jones should be able to take advantage.
Rhamondre Stevenson to record 5+ receptions (+320)
I think this correlates nicely with the first leg of our Same Game Parlay. The Patriots are light on weapons at the moment, and if they’re going to pull off the upset then Stevenson is going to need to step up. He’s one of the few players on offense who is capable of looking electric, and he’s coming off a 5-catch game against Las Vegas. Stevenson already has 5+ catches twice this year and he did it in 6 of his last 11 games last season, so I think +320 on this prop has some nice standalone value as well, especially when you throw in the fact that Stevenson had at least 5catches in both of his games against the Bills last year.
He is Jones’ security blanket when he’s under pressure, and Jones is likely going to be under a lot of it against Buffalo’s ferocious pass-rush. New England’s receivers have shown a consistent inability to separate, meaning more and more of the targets are going to continue to get funneled to running backs and tight ends.
Stevenson outtouched Ezekiel Elliott 15-8 last week, and I think he’s going to continue to dominate the volume in this backfield moving forward.
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What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a Same Game Parlay and where can I bet it?
