One year after making the playoffs for the first time since the 1999 season Vegas projected the Bills to take a step back and set the season win total at 6 wins. The 2018 season was a forgettable one to say the least as the Bills did exactly what Vegas projected them to do by winning exactly six games. They finished in 3rd in the AFC East with a record of 6-10. They do have their quarterback of the future in Josh Allen who won two of the final three games of the season. Josh Allen led the team in passing with 2,074 yards for 10 touchdowns and 12 interceptions for a quarterback rating of 67.9 and added another 631 rushing yards as well as 8 rushing touchdowns. Allen also led the team in rushing with 631 rushing yards for 8 touchdowns. Zay Jones led the team in receiving with 56 receptions for 652 yards and 7 touchdowns. The Bills failed to have a 1,000 yard rusher and also failed to have a 1,000 yard receiver. They only had one Pro Bowler this season in defensive tackle Kyle Williams. The Bills didn’t win anyone money, but they also didn’t lose anyone money with their win total. Let’s take a look at the Buffalo Bills 2018 season and see how they did against the spread.
Bills Against the Spread
The Buffalo Bills finished the season 7-9 ATS which is a 43.75 winning percentage against the spread and if you bet against the Bills you would’ve had a 56.25 winning percentage, so if you bet against the Bills this season you would have been slightly profitable. The Bills were 3-5 ATS at home for a winning percentage of 37.5% against the spread at home, but if you bet against the Bills when they were playing at home you would’ve been profitable as that would’ve led to a 62.5 winning percentage.
The Bills were 4-4 ATS on the road, so whether you bet on them or bet against them on the road that wouldn’t have made any money as you have to be above 55% to have any profit. Buffalo was 1-2 ATS as a favorite, so if someone were to have bet against them as a favorite they would’ve been profitable at 66.66% versus betting on them as a favorite which they were only 33.33%. The Bills were 6-7 ATS as an underdog which would’ve lead to a loss in profit whether betting on them as an underdog at 46.15% or betting against them at 54.85%. From an against the spread perspective the only way someone would have been profitable would’ve been to bet against the Bills all season, betting against them at home and betting against them as a favorite. Let’s take a look at how they did from a totals perspective.
Bills Totals
The under hit in nine of the sixteen games for the Buffalo Bills this season which if someone bet on the under in all of their games they would’ve had a 56.25 winning percentage which is only slightly profitable. The over hit in five of the eight home games for Buffalo which resulted in a 62.5 winning percentage which would’ve been profitable for anyone taking the over in Bills home games. The under hit in six of the eight road games for the Bills which resulted in the over hitting 75% of the time which would’ve been profitable for anyone betting the over in the road games for the Bills. The over/under was much more lucrative for bettors as they could’ve been profitable if they bet on the under in all of the Bills games, the over in the home games for the Bills as well as the under in the road games for the Bills.
