Andrew Wilsher
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The NFL Playoffs roll on as we move onto the Divisional Round with 4 huge matchups on deck. The AFC’s #1 seed Kansas City Chiefs get their postseason campaign started on Saturday as they host the Houston Texans, before the NFC’s #1 seed Detroit Lions battle the Washington Commanders. Then on Sunday, we have the LA Rams making the trip to Lincoln Financial Field to take on the Philadelphia Eagles, before the slate wraps up with the biggest game of the weekend between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills. It’s bound to be an unbelievable weekend of football, so let’s dive into our Pickswise experts’ NFL best bets for the Divisional Round, while you can also find out our NFL picks on the side and total for EVERY game.
Texans vs Chiefs best bet: Houston Texans +8.5 (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +7.5.
The Houston Texans travel to Kansas City on Saturday as underdogs for their 2nd straight playoff contest. CJ Stroud and company handled the LA Chargers 32-12 in the Wild Card round, as they outgained the Chargers by 168 yards and won the turnover battle 4-1. Facing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs is a different animal, but this Houston defense is humming. DeMeco Ryans’ unit ranks 4th in the NFL in success-rate allowed, 5th in EPA per play, 2nd in points per quality possession allowed and 5th in total yards allowed (315.0 per game). I don’t expect Mahomes to come out and throw 4 interceptions like Justin Herbert, but this Houston defense can cause issues for the 2-time MVP.
Kansas City had an extra week to prepare for this contest, but they’re just 16-17 ATS with a rest advantage since Mahomes took over in 2018. Although the Chiefs went 15-2 this season, they only won 4 times by more than 8 points. 10 of KC’s contests this year were decided by 7 or less, so they’ve hardly been dominating the opposition. The Chiefs’ lone defeat this season when playing their starters came in Week 11 at Buffalo, as they totaled just 78 rushing yards and Mahomes tossed 2 interceptions. Houston just held the Chargers to 50 rushing yards, so if the Chiefs’ rushing attack doesn’t get going early, the visitors can keep this game close.
These 2 squads met in Week 16 at Arrowhead, and Kansas City won 27-19, covering the 3.5-point spread. The only difference between now and then is that Houston lost Tank Dell in that game to a gruesome leg injury, but I don’t think the Texans wideout is worth 4.5 points. Additionally, Mahomes hasn’t covered big numbers this year, as the Chiefs are just 1-5 ATS this season when they’re 7+ point favorites. The Chiefs historically dominate at Arrowhead, as they are 54-15 SU since Mahomes was named the starter in 2018, but they’re just 31-35-3 ATS. Expect Houston to keep this game close even if KC sneaks away with another field-goal victory.
Read our full Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs predictions
Commanders vs Lions best bet: Washington Commanders +9.5 (-110)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
Prior to last week’s games, I wrote at length about the ongoing struggles of rookie quarterbacks making their first career start on the road in the NFL playoffs. The last 25 years of data in those situations was part of my assessment in backing the Bills to beat the Broncos convincingly last weekend, and it was clear that Denver quarterback Bo Nix was flustered in a game of that magnitude. However, one quarterback that completely bucked the rookie trend was Jayden Daniels, as the Commanders starter played with poise and confidence to help lead his team to an upset victory over the Buccaneers to advance to the NFC Divisional round. Now, Daniels and this young team will be tasked with playing the top-seeded Detroit Lions on the road in another spot where most aren’t expecting much of them. Despite the fact that the historical data doesn’t favor the Commanders in this spot, I’m still interested in taking a shot on Washington here, especially since the high total suggests that this should be a high-variance game.
On paper, the matchup suggests that Detroit should be able to move the ball at will here. After all, the Lions’ offense ranks 3rd in EPA per play, 1st in success rate and 1st in both quality possessions generated and points per drive. Washington’s defense has been much-maligned this season, but this is pretty much a bang-average unit (16th in EPA per play, 16th in success rate allowed). Therefore, while the Lions offense (1st in success rate, 3rd in EPA per play) has the clear advantage in that matchup, there’s a world where it might not be as lopsided as most would think, especially after Washington put forth a strong effort against a Tampa Bay offense that was a top-5 unit in the league this season. Furthermore, both of these coaching staffs have been extremely aggressive all season long, and I wouldn’t expect that to change on Saturday. A game script that features a number of 4th-down attempts from both sides is one that typically favors the underdog, as it introduces variance into the game. That’s exactly how Washington wants to play, and it could lead to the Commanders stealing a couple of possessions and/or winning the time of possession battle — keeping Detroit’s elite offense off the field in the process.
On the other side of the ball, Detroit’s defense has been an area of concern for this team all season long, particularly in the second half of the campaign. The injuries caught up to the Lions in a major way down the stretch, and while Aaron Glenn’s unit has gotten a couple of key players back, there are still major cogs missing in the secondary, which is not ideal against a Washington passing offense that gave Tampa Bay fits a week ago. The Commanders should have potential mismatches downfield, and there could be opportunities for Terry McLaurin to make a few plays in 1-on-1 situations, as the Lions play more man coverage than any other team in the NFL. Daniels also has a ridiculous 98.1 QBR against the blitz over the past 6 games, so it’s going to be extremely difficult for Detroit to rattle this budding superstar just by bringing extra pressure. Lastly, the trends aren’t kind to home teams in this situation either. Per Evan Abrams, home teams in the Divisional Round coming off a bye are 33-42-1 against the spread (44%), since 2003. Additionally, they are 17-24-1 against the number (42%) as favorites of 7 or more points off a bye. Even against a team playing in its 2nd straight postseason road game, the team coming off the bye is still 15-22-1 ATS (41%). Look for Daniels and company to do just enough to keep this game within a possession at Ford Field.
Read our full Washington Commanders vs Detroit Lions predictions
Rams vs Eagles best bet: LA Rams +6.5 (-115)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +6.
The Rams and Eagles are both advancing to the Divisional Round, but that doesn’t mean they both looked stellar in the Wild Card. Philadelphia capitalized on many Green Bay mistakes, and to their credit their defense was superb. Philly allowed just 5 yards per play, and of course the havoc they caused was part of Green Bay’s 4 turnovers. Jordan Love was rushed, hit 5 times and sacked twice, under constant duress from the onset of the match. Love also threw 2 horrid balls that turned into easy interceptions for the Eagles. By game’s end, the Packers outgained the Eagles 302-290 and went 7-13 on 3rd down. By comparison, Philly was just 2-11. After taking a 10-0 lead in the first quarter, the Eagles only scored 12 more points, and for stretches their offense was anemic. The Eagles punted in 4 straight drives from the start of the 2nd quarter to halfway through the 3rd, unable to close the door on a Green Bay team that mirrored preseason form. Only when the Packers scored did Jalen Hurts and his teammates respond. Their defense kept the Packers at bay when it mattered most, but there’s cause for concern with Philly’s stuttering offense. And the truth is, they haven’t been consistently elite all year (10th in yards per game, 17th in red-zone TD rate).
On the other side, we were very impressed by the Rams. Many Rams players had personal connections with the LA fires, including quarterback Matt Stafford. NFL schedulers changed their location, and the distraction of the fires had to interfere with their planning and preparation. It mattered not. Against a program with one of the NFL’s best records, the Rams were the aggressors from the start, scoring a touchdown on their opening drive (7 plays, 70 yards) and harassing Sam Darnold as soon as he stepped on the field. The Rams sacked Darnold a whopping 9 times for 82 yards lost, a result of a young, hungry defensive line that’s peaking at the right time. Stafford was sharp as a tack, 19/27 for 202 yards and 2 touchdowns, and their run game was formidable when it needed to be. In the end, it was a dominant performance and message to the rest of the NFC: Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford are a deadly combination that’s won a Super Bowl before; don’t think it can’t happen again.
Philadelphia will present a sloppy environment for this Sunday showdown but we fear not for the visiting Rams. Sure, they’re used to sunny Los Angeles and typically perfect southern California weather, but they also have veteran leaders who have been through it all. They also have McVay and Stafford, who can execute high-level offenses as good as any pairing in the NFL. Saquon Barkley is the Eagles’ ace in the hole, but even if they consistently run him down LA’s throat all-game, we doubt the Eagles can pull away.
Read our full LA Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles prediction
Ravens vs Bills best bet: Baltimore Ravens -1 (-110)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
Perhaps the most anticipated game of the Divisional Round is the showdown of the NFL’s top-2 MVP candidates. After scintillating performances by both programs last weekend, the Ravens and Bills will meet for a 2nd time this season. Our only other relevant reference point was their Week 4 battle, a clash where the Ravens dominated the visiting Bills from start to finish. They almost doubled the Bills in total yards (427 to 236), and Derrick Henry looked like Emmitt Smith (24 carries, 199 yards, 1 touchdown). Of course, the Bills also caught the Ravens at a bad time; Baltimore lost in their home opener to the Raiders 2 weeks prior, so they had extra motivation to display a perfect performance.
That still doesn’t mean that the same thing will happen this Sunday. After a humbling loss to the Rams in Week 14, Buffalo has looked just as impressive as any team in the NFL. Disregarding their Week 18 matchup where they rested starters in a close loss to New England, the Bills have put up 143 points in 4 straight wins (36 ppg), and that started with a 48-42 spectacular against a team that many think is the best in the league, the Detroit Lions. Buffalo’s defense was extremely stingy last Sunday, holding the Broncos to just 224 yards, 13 first downs, 7 points and just 2-9 on 3rd-down conversions. We consider Sean Payton to be one of the premier play-callers in the NFL, so that’s no small feat.
Still, the Ravens looked unstoppable in the Wild Card Round, against a division foe that’s seen them three times. Todd Monken is no longer calling plays for the Ravens and it appears they’ve learned from past mistakes. Last year, Baltimore failed to stick to their best asset in the playoffs – their run game – and created a game plan that featured a plethora of passing. They don’t seem to be on that path this time. Last Saturday, Baltimore ran for 299 yards on a very formidable group (PFF ranked Pittsburgh as the NFL’s best defensive line), having little to no issue controlling the line of scrimmage. The Bills’ front seven has very high upside, but by all statistical standards, they’re a very mediocre group (19th in opponent yards per rush, 16th in opponent yards per pass). In Buffalo or not, we agree with the line movement.
Read our full Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills prediction
