Andrew Wilsher
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Week 9 of the 2024 NFL season is upon us and things got started with the New York Jets snapping their 5-game losing streak as they beat the Houston Texans 21-13 on Thursday Night Football. Now we turn our attention to Sunday’s 13-game slate, highlighted by a huge NFC North battle between the Lions and Packers in the afternoon. We also have another team from that division in action on Sunday Night Football as the Vikings look to rebound from their 2-game skid when they host the Colts. How will things pan out in Week 9? Let’s get into our Pickswise experts’ 3-star NFL best bets for this Sunday’s games, while you can also find out our NFL picks on the side and total for EVERY matchup this season.
NFL Week 9 best bet: Green Bay Packers +3 over Detroit Lions (-115)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +2.
The Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers face off this Sunday in a pivotal NFC North matchup with serious division implications. The Lions have a slim lead in the NFC North and are winners of 5 straight, but the Packers are behind them and riding a 4-game winning streak themselves. The biggest storyline entering this week will be the status of Packers QB Jordan Love after the play-caller suffered a groin injury in Week 8, but Adam Schefter reported that he expects Love to play, and Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur stated that Love is pushing to play on Sunday, even if he doesn’t practice all week.
Detroit has been an absolute wagon during this 5-game winning streak, as they’ve gone 5-0 ATS and are putting up 38.4 ppg. However, it’s worth noting that the combined record of the 5 teams they’ve played during this stretch is 17-20. Additionally, the Vikings are the only team they’ve played this season that currently has a winning record, and they won that game by just 2 points, as it came down to a game-winning field goal. Detroit has done a great job at limiting opponents’ scoring (19.1 ppg — 8th in the NFL), which has mainly been due to their red-zone defense (9th in the NFL), but there are some glaring holes in their secondary (247.6 passing yards allowed per game — 27th in the NFL). I expect Love to take advantage of their passing defense, and the Packers score a TD on 64.3% of red-zone drives at Lambeau Field this year (11th in the NFL).
While Love’s status is worth monitoring leading up to kickoff, I plan to back Green Bay with or without their starting QB. Backup QB Malik Willis is 2-0 when filling in for Love this season, and LaFleur is notorious for his ATS record as an underdog. Since taking over the Packers, he has gone 22-10 ATS as an underdog overall and 17-4 ATS as an underdog of 3+ points. Combine this with the fact that Jared Goff historically struggles when playing outdoors (38% more interceptions, 10% lower passer rating and 18% fewer touchdowns per attempt per game), and you have a perfect opportunity to back the home team with the points this Sunday at Lambeau.
Read our full Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers predictions
NFL Week 9 best bet: Washington Commanders -3.5 over New York Giants (-115)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing. Playable to -4.
The Washington Commanders are flying high at 6-2 heading into a Sunday afternoon road date with their NFC East rival New York Giants. Washington seemed to be on the way to a setback against the Chicago Bears in Week 8, but a Hail Mary — or Maryland Miracle — from Jayden Daniels to Noah Brown on the last play of the game saved the day for the home team. It wasn’t an otherwise spectacular offensive performance by any means, but such theatrics give the Commanders incredible momentum moving forward. Moreover, Daniels was just a week removed from a not-insignificant rib injury that many thought would keep him sidelined from last weekend’s contest. With another week to heal, Daniels should turn in a more consistent performance and be back to his normal self against the Giants. In other words, last-second heroics probably won’t be required.
Football in New York this season has been an unmitigated disaster, with both city dwellers near the NFL cellar at 2-6. The Jets’ shortcomings are arguably more alarming since their expectations were higher, but the Giants are an even worse team. They are on a 3-game losing streak and during this stretch have scored a grand total of 28 points. Daniel Jones has not thrown a single touchdown pass in the last 3 contests and for the year he has just 1 more TD than interception (6 to 5). Left tackle Andrew Thomas being out certainly doesn’t help matters. On the other side of the ball, edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux is among a handful of players on injured reserve. In pretty much every way, Washington is a far superior football team and should have no issue covering this number.
Read our full Washington Commanders vs New York Giants predictions
NFL Week 9 best bet: Cleveland Browns +1.5 over LA Chargers (-110)
Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
The Browns prepare to host the LA Chargers following their stunning upset win over the Ravens, and Cleveland should be able to prove that victory was no fluke. The introduction of Jameis Winston at quarterback appears to have given this Browns offense the spark it desperately needed, as the former number-1 pick threw for 334 yards and 3 touchdowns in the win over Baltimore, with 3 receivers posting at least 79 receiving yards. Next on the agenda for Cleveland is a stingy Chargers defense that has allowed the 8th-fewest passing yards per attempt and held teams to 17 points or fewer in 6 of their 7 games this season. However, it’s worth paying attention to the offenses LA has come up against, which include the Raiders, Panthers, Broncos and Derek Carr-less Saints – hardly a murderers’ row. With Winston airing it out and Nick Chubb gradually getting back to his best, Cleveland should give this Chargers defense all it can handle.
On the flip side, the Browns still boast one of the best defenses in the NFL and proved why as they held the previously unstoppable Ravens rushing offense in check. Now they get to take on a Chargers team that has the fourth-fewest passing yards in the NFL and the sixth-fewest yards per carry. I know it’s easy to get carried away with Cleveland’s win over Baltimore, but I had faith that Winston could turn it around in that game and see no reason to turn my back on them now against an underwhelming Chargers team. I’m amazed we’re getting the Browns as a home underdog in this one, so let’s jump on them while we can.
Read our full LA Chargers vs Cleveland Browns predictions
