Andrew Wilsher
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Ladies and gentlemen, it all comes down to this. It’s been one heck of a ride, but we’ve reached the final NFL Sunday of the regular season. We’ve got 14 games on tap, where playoff positioning and draft seeding will all be determined. It all wraps up with the main event of all main events, as the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions collide on Sunday Night Football, fighting to be crowned kings of the NFC North and to lock up the NFC #1 seed. With so much to get hyped up for, let’s dive right into our Pickswise experts’ NFL best bets for this Week 18 Sunday slate, while you can also find out our NFL picks on the side and total for EVERY game.
NFL Week 18 best bet: Washington Commanders -4.5 over Dallas Cowboys (-110)
Odds available at Bet365 at time of publishing. Playable to -5.5.
The Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys face off on Sunday in Week 18, and while the Cowboys’ season is over, the Commanders are playing for playoff seeding in the NFC. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels has been fantastic for Washington all season, as he’s the frontrunner for Offensive Rookie of the Year and has led the Commanders to their first playoff appearance since 2021. He’s been red-hot since these teams last met, as Daniels has recorded 917 passing yards, 308 rushing yards, 14 total TDs and just 4 INTs in 4 games. The Cowboys upset the Commanders 34-26 in their Week 12 meeting, so I expect Washington to come back for revenge in this one.
It’s been a dismal season for Dallas, as they were just 3-5 when starting QB Dak Prescott announced he’d be out for the season due to hamstring surgery. Surprisingly, they’ve gone 4-4 since then, and backup QB Cooper Rush has more or less steadied the ship. However, the wheels completely fell off last week, as the Eagles dominated Dallas 41-7 and Rush completed just 50.7% of his passes for 147 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs. Eagles third-string QB Tanner McKee even came in and threw for 54 yards and 2 TDs, so this Dallas team has very little life remaining.
As I stated above, Dallas took down Washington in Week 12 when they were 10.5-point underdogs. Since then, the Commanders are 4-1 against the spread and have scored 32.0 ppg. Additionally, the Cowboys have been awful at AT&T Stadium this year, as they’re just 2-6 ATS at home in 2024-25 and have gone 2-8 ATS at home in their last 10 games. The Commanders secure a Wild Card matchup with the Rams or Buccaneers/Falcons (instead of the Eagles) with a victory on Sunday, so I expect them to give it their all and secure a 7+ point win.
Read our full Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys predictions
NFL Week 18 best bet: Miami Dolphins -1 over New York Jets (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -2.5.
The Miami Dolphins will be hoping to secure the final playoff spot in the AFC when they visit the New York Jets on Sunday afternoon. You are always going to see some wacky spreads in the last week of the NFL regular season with some teams already in the playoffs, other teams out and still others in limbo. This matchup has one squad that is still alive (Miami) and another that has long since been eliminated (New York), but it is priced as pretty much an even matchup — mainly because Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is out and Snoop Huntley will get the start. For me that creates a lot of value on the Fins.
Even without Tagovailoa, Miami is by far the superior — and also much more motivated — team. The Dolphins get in with a win and a loss by the Denver Broncos to the Kansas City Chiefs. The latter is unlikely since Kansas City has already clinched the #1 seed and can rest its starters, but Miami should at least hold up its end of the bargain. Head coach Mike McDaniel’s club has played well throughout the second half of the season, compiling a 6-2 record in its last 8 contests. It has outscored its last 2 opponents — the San Francisco 49ers and Cleveland Browns — by a combined 49-20 margin.
As for the 4-12 Jets, they stink. They fell to the Buffalo Bills 40-14 last weekend and have scored a total of 23 points in their 2 most recent outings. Aaron Rodgers enjoyed a brief rise in form in late November and early December, but he was bad against Buffalo and his motivation is clearly gone. Everyone on the New York roster is just ready to hit the links while securing a high draft pick in 2025. Regardless of Tagovailoa’s status, Miami should be poised to take advantage.
Read our full Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets predictions
NFL Week 18 best bet: Detroit Lions -2.5 over Minnesota Vikings (-110)
Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -3.
By now there’s not much we can tell you about these 2 teams that you don’t already know. The fact that the NFC North features 2 programs with 13+ wins, both vying for the NFC’s #1 seed, and that they get to battle on Sunday night in the final matchup of the season is beyond perfect for NFL fans. Even better, it’s the first time in NFL history that two 13+ win teams face off in the regular season. Get your popcorn ready! While it’s inarguable is that both programs are elite and we’d be remiss not to revisit their first meeting. In Week 7, Detroit traveled to US Bank Stadium and left the victor, but it was a very even contest. Just look at some of the box-score stats:
- Total yards– MIN: 383, DET: 391
- First downs– MIN: 16, DET: 19
- Yards per play– MIN: 7.4, DET: 7.0
- Passing yards– MIN: 244, DET: 247
- Rushing yards– MIN: 139, DET: 144
- Penalties– MIN: 8 for 59 yards, DET: 8 for 49 yards
- Turnovers– MIN: 1, DET: 1
- Time of possession: MIN: 30:57, DET: 29:03
The reality is, Detroit simply managed the game better at the end of regulation and the Minnesota defense couldn’t stop them. Jared Goff and company conducted a masterful drive, 8 plays, 44 yards with just over 2 minutes left, running the clock down to 0:15 when Jake Bates hit what would become the game-winning field goal. Detroit also stopped Minnesota in their prior drive, forcing a three-and-out to give their offense a chance to win the game. Goff and company followed suit.
If we were to glean one clear difference from these two teams, it’s that the Lions have been in these big-game situations more than the Vikings have. That experience matters in these pivotal moments. Sam Darnold has had an amazing year, MVP-worthy by many standards (4,153 passing yards, 35 touchdowns, 12 interceptions), but he hasn’t been in as many of these situations as his opposition. Jared Goff took the Rams to the Super Bowl before he ever got traded to Detroit, and the Lions held a 24-7 first-half lead against the 49ers in last year’s NFC Championship game. They probably should have won. In any case, big-game experience matters, and at this juncture, the Lions have been one of the NFL’s premier Super Bowl contenders for 2 seasons and running. They’re also at home, where they can utilize the energy of their fans for an extra edge when the going gets tough. This is a tough handicap no matter what way we look at it, the spread is very accurate, but we just simply cannot pick against the Lions at home in these scenarios.
Read our full Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions predictions for SNF
