Andrew Wilsher
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NFL Week 17 has already seen a ton of action take place! We’ve had football on Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday, but now we have the usual Sunday mega slate to sink our teeth into! Now that we’re at the penultimate week of the 2024 NFL season, there’s a lot on the line for teams from playoff contention to NFL Draft positioning. With plenty of matchups to get excited for, let’s dive into our Pickswise experts’ 3-star NFL best bets for this Week 17 Sunday slate, while you can also find out our NFL picks on the side and total for EVERY game this week.
NFL Week 17 best bet: Indianapolis Colts -7.5 over New York Giants (-115)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to 8.
The New York Giants are currently slated to have the first overall pick in the upcoming Draft. It’s exactly what New York has been hoping for since they are in desperate need of a franchise quarterback. At 2-13, possibly getting the first pick is the only positive that can be taken from this season. The Giants have gone through Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito, Drew Lock, and Tim Boyle at quarterback this season and nothing has worked. Last week’s blowout loss to the Falcons marked their 10th in a row. Lock was under center and he completed just 22 of his 39 passes for 210 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Even with young playmakers like Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Tyrone Tracy, the Giants offense has been a massive disappointment. Plus, the New York defense allowed rookie Michael Penix Jr. (who was making his first career start) and the Falcons offense to score 34 points against them last week.
The Colts won their Week 16 matchup in a very unusual way. Indianapolis scored 34 points against the Titans which would lead you to think “wow, Anthony Richardson finally kicked it into gear!”. But no, Richardson completed just 7 passes in the entire game. The offense ran through Jonathan Taylor who totaled 218 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns on 29 carries. Taylor’s historic performance kept Indy’s playoff hopes alive as they are currently on the bubble with a 14% chance of making it past the regular season. If the Colts want to keep playing past Week 18, they need to win both of their remaining games and for a few other teams to slip up. That gives the Colts motivation to win while the Giants have plenty of motivation to lose since they want to hold onto the #1 pick. Take the Colts to cover this spread against a sinking Giants team.
Read our full Indianapolis Colts vs New York Giants predictions
NFL Week 17 best bet: Tennessee Titans +1 over Jacksonville Jaguars (-112)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -1.
We’ve got AFC South action on our hands here, as the Tennessee Titans make the trip to Florida to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. There’s no sugarcoating it – both of these teams have been dreadful this season. They are both 3-12 and have been blown out multiple times. However, I’m amazed to see that Tennessee is a slight underdog in this game, and like its chances of pulling the small upset. For starters, Jacksonville has lost each of its last 2 games to the Jets and Raiders – 2 equally poor franchises. They allowed both Aaron Rodgers and Aidan O’Connell to tear through them and have given up the most passing yards (4,148) and most passing yards per attempt (8.2) in the NFL. They’ve also given up the 4th-most passing touchdowns while making the 3rd-fewest interceptions. The Titans offense was unable to capitalize on that 3 weeks ago, as the Jaguars beat them 10-6 in Tennessee, but it’s worth noting that Will Levis was under center in that game. The Titans have shown vast improvement with Mason Rudolph under center.
Tennessee has put up 27 and 30 points in its last 2 games, with Rudolph posting 4 touchdown passes in that period. Calvin Ridley has seen an uptick in production, while tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo has really started to take off. The Titans’ defense continues to plague them, having allowed the 2nd-most points in the NFL, but it’s unlikely the Jags will be able to take advantage. Jacksonville managed just 10 points against them last time, and have mustered 14 points or fewer in 4 of their last 6 games. It could be a rough watch, and the Titans should prevail in this one, but it’s worth taking the extra point as insurance in case it really does come down to the wire.
Read our full Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars predictions
NFL Week 17 best bet: Atlanta Falcons +4 over Washington Commanders (-110)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing. Playable to -3.5.
The Falcons and Commanders both did themselves a solid with big wins this past Sunday, increasing their chances of a postseason experience. Atlanta currently sits in 4th, the winner of the NFC South if it ended today (they own the tiebreaker over the Bucs, since they beat them twice this season), while Washington would be the final Wild Card. Despite a higher seed, the market believes that the Commanders are the most dangerous team, a valuation we tend to agree with, although Atlanta’s forecast just got brighter. Rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. had a fantastic first start. Sure, he was playing the Giants, arguably the league’s worst team, but a rookie thrower’s first game behind center is no easy spot, and Penix never looked rattled. The former Washington QB threw 18/27 for 205 yards (7.5 yards per pass) on Sunday, which included 4 dropped passes by his receivers and an interception that wasn’t his fault (Kyle Pitts coughed the ball up into a defender’s arms). It was a great sign for a Falcons team that needed an emotional boost. And Penix’s arm strength was visibly different from his predecessor. The leftie was slinging rockets across the field with ease, and was unafraid to push the ball downfield. That seemed to open up Bijan Robinson and the Falcons’ rushing attack, which gained a solid 127 yards.
That’s good news for the Falcons because Washington’s defense isn’t much better. Jayden Daniels has been amazing in his rookie season and hope has been restored in DC, but it’s rarely because of their defense. Better offenses consistently put points against Washington, just ask Tampa (37), Cincinnati (33), Baltimore (30), Pittsburgh (28) and Philadelphia (59 combined points in 2 games). We’re not sure if the Falcons are suddenly “elite” now with Penix, but they surely looked better. And when Atlanta went down 7-0 early, Penix immediately responded and led the Falcons right down the field for a quick score. The kid seems poised, prepared, and fundamentally sound– 3 qualities that few throwers exhibit in the modern era. The Atlanta defense has also played much better lately, producing 16 sacks and holding opposing offenses to just 281 rushing yards over their past 4 games. Lastly, Washington is coming off a huge, emotional victory against the Eagles, the top team in their division, while the Falcons had a proverbial practice session against the hapless Giants. This is a dangerous spot for the Commanders, and we project it to be a very close contest.
Read our full Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders predictions for SNF
