Andrew Wilsher
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NFL Week 16 got started with a wild clash on Thursday Night Football that saw the LA Chargers prevail over the Denver Broncos in an all-AFC West matchup as the Chargers leapfrogged the Broncos both in the divisional standings and in the current Wild Card seeding. What playoff implications will we see on Sunday’s slate? We have a ton of huge matchups to get excited for, including Eagles vs Commanders, Vikings vs Seahawks and 49ers vs Dolphins. Let’s dive into our Pickswise experts’ 3-star NFL best bets for this Week 16 Sunday slate, while you can also find out our NFL picks on the side and total for EVERY game this week.
NFL Week 16 best bet: Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears Over 48 (-110)
Odds available at Bet365 at time of publishing. Playable to 49.
Although I expect the Lions to win by 7+ on Sunday, Chicago can put up enough points to make this total fly Over. There’s no denying that Detroit will do its fair share of scoring, as Chicago has allowed 34 ppg since Eberflus was fired, and the Lions are putting up 32.8 ppg this season (1st in the NFL). Additionally, Detroit recorded 405 total yards and 25 first downs in the first meeting, but they came away with just 23 points due to a Jahmyr Gibbs fumble in the red zone and a missed field goal.
On the flip side, this Lions defense is decimated with injuries. They posted one of the best DVOAs in the NFL over the first 11 weeks of the year, but since Week 12, they rank 25th. Additionally, Chicago scored 23 points in the second half of the first meeting, so I do expect them to be able to exploit the Lions to some extent. Since that game, Detroit has given up 31 to the Packers and 48 to the Bills, and although those are much more potent offenses, the Bears have shown some life at home this season. The Bears score 22.2 ppg at Solider Field compared to 16.6 on the road.
If the Bears can put up 20+ when these teams met in Detroit the first time, it’s not out of the realm to think that they can replicate that performance, if not exceed it given all of their points came in the second half. Losing Montgomery will impact the Lions’ offense, but I still expect them to put up 28+ against a Bears defense just trying to reach the end of the season. Both teams should score 20+ in this matchup, and I expect Detroit to be closer to 30, so I’ll back the Over on Sunday in Chicago.
Read our full Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears predictions
NFL Week 16 best bet: LA Rams vs New York Jets Over 46.5 (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to 47.5.
As mentioned already, the forecast for this game suggests a cold, sunny game, but we should still see plenty of points scored. Aaron Rodgers has been on fire lately with defenses struggling to contain the hot receiving duo of Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. We saw the Bills shred the Rams just a couple of weeks ago and I expect New York to have success moving the chains in this one. Despite their record, LA has allowed the 4th-most points in the NFC and has proven vulnerable both through the air and on the ground. If the Jets offensive line and give Rodgers time to throw then we should see New York build on its recent outputs of 27, 21, 26 and 32 points.
As for Los Angeles, they won an ugly game over San Francisco last week but we should see Matthew Stafford continue to get the ball to both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Stafford has 10 touchdown passes in his last 5 games while running back Kyren Williams has punched it in 12 times this season with at least 72 rushing yards in each of his last 5. He should see more success with the Jets allowing the 6th-most TDs on the ground.
Both teams’ strengths seem to lie in the offense right now, and with both quarterbacks having tremendous receiving duos at their disposal, this one could easily turn into a shootout. Expect plenty of points at MetLife on Sunday.
Read our full LA Rams vs New York Jets predictions
NFL Week 16 best bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 over Dallas Cowboys (-105)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -4.5.
The market is giving the Cowboys some respect after their most recent win, a 30-14 butt-whooping over the Panthers last Sunday. Of course, Carolina was favored in that game, the spread even went up to -3 at certain points, so perhaps Dallas felt disrespected and gained extra motivation. Those are the little stimulants teams like Dallas need to be competitive at this juncture in the season since their playoff chances remain very slim. We give credit to their defense, a unit that controlled their Week 15 matchup from start to finish and capitalized on a litany of mistakes by the Panthers’ offense. The Cowboys’ offense also took advantage of one of the league’s worst defenses, stacking up 410 total yards, including a rare, successful performance on the ground (Rico Dowdle ran for 149 yards on 25 carries). Of course, there’s another factor that we must consider about the Cowboys, and that’s their poor play at home. Dallas has only won a single game all season at AT&T Stadium, a closely fought victory against arguably the NFL’s worst program, the New York Giants, on Thanksgiving. Otherwise, they’re 1-6 straight up with a staggering average point differential of -17 in front of their fans. They’ll have another difficult test at home on Sunday Night Football.
The Bucs are on a roll right now. Demolishing one of the NFL’s surprise teams last week, Tampa rolled to a 40-17 victory over the Chargers, a statement performance and their 4th straight win. They’ve outscored their last 4 opponents 124-60. To be fair, they haven’t exactly faced a who’s-who of elite competition in that span (opponents Giants, Panthers, Raiders and Chargers), but wins are wins and the Bucs control their destiny, sitting in 1st place in the NFC South with an advantageous schedule ahead (at Cowboys, vs Panthers, vs Saints). We appreciate Dallas’ fight and vigor last week at Carolina, but the Bucs are a different beast. Baker Mayfield is in a groove, Mike Evans is playing at an elite level (as always) as their #1 wideout, Bucky Irving is explosive and productive, and their defense is playing as well as they have all season. We’ll take the team in better health, with more momentum and with plenty more motivation.
Read our full Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys predictions
