Andrew Wilsher
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NFL Week 15 is underway after the LA Rams beat the San Francisco 49ers 12-6 on Thursday Night Football to all but eliminate the Niners from postseason contention. Will any other teams suffer the final blow to their playoff hopes, or will the likes of the Dolphins and Colts be able to keep their respective pushes alive? We have a ton of high-stakes games to look forward to, including Bills vs Lions, Steelers vs Eagles, Dolphins vs Texans and Colts vs Broncos. With tons on the line, let’s dive into our Pickswise experts’ 3-star NFL best bets for this Week 15 Sunday slate, while you can also find out our NFL picks on the side and total for EVERY game this week.
NFL Week 15 best bet: Houston Texans -2 over Miami Dolphins (-110)
Odds available at Bet365 at time of publishing. Playable to -2.5.
The Houston Texans are back from their bye and ready to attack the home stretch of the 2024 regular season with a contest against the visiting Miami Dolphins on Sunday afternoon. I think Houston is in a great spot to win and cover this week. It is comfortably atop the AFC South with a 2-game lead, but not so far ahead of the Indianapolis Colts that it can take its foot off the gas pedal just yet. Moreover, the Texans are well rested and also playing at the friendly confines of NRG Stadium. They also get to face a Miami team that is second-to-last in the NFL in sacks (24). Although the Dolphins’ defense is solid on the whole, you aren’t going to have much success if you aren’t putting pressure on CJ Stroud.
As for the Dolphins, it’s hard to have much faith in them even with Tua Tagovailoa healthy. They have improved since a disastrous first half of the season when Tagovailoa was mostly out, but they are far from on fire. A blowout loss at the Green Bay Packers in Week 13 was followed by requiring overtime to beat the lowly New York Jets at home. The Fins are 6-7 overall and 2-4 on the road; their road losses have come by 3, 6, 13 and 21 points. Give me Houston to win and cover this small spread.
Read our full Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans predictions
NFL Week 15 best bet: New York Jets -3.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -4.
It’s a battle of 3-10 teams as the Jets make the trip to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars, and there might finally be something to cheer about for Aaron Rodgers and company. Interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich slumped to his 7th loss in 8 games since taking over from Robert Saleh, but there was a lot to like about New York’s performance in last week’s overtime loss to Miami. Aaron Rodgers posted 339 passing yards, his highest in over 3 years, as both Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams exceeded 100 receiving yards. The Jets offense was able to move at will against the Miami defense, not having to punt the ball until deep in the 3rd quarter, and most passing yards per attempt in the NFL and the 3rd-most passing touchdowns.
Jacksonville did just pick up a victory over the Titans, but that was an ugly 10-6 win that required a 4th-quarter comeback. Trevor Lawrence remains sidelined with a concussion and Mac Jones has struggled in the interim, being intercepted twice in that game last week. Jones now has 2 touchdown passes on the season compared to 5 interceptions. This Jags team has now scored 10 points or fewer in 3 of its last 4 games and it’s hard to see them troubling a Jets team that has allowed the fewest passing touchdowns in the league and posted the 7th-most sacks. It’s been an ugly season for New York, but them being 0-7 in games decided by 6 points or fewer highlights that things have perhaps been more unlucky than downright bad for the Jets, and they should be able to pick up the win and cover in this one.
Read our full New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars predictions
NFL Week 15 best bet: Indianapolis Colts vs Denver Broncos Under 44 (-110)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to 43.
I expect Sunday’s Colts vs Broncos game to be a low-scoring contest. As stated in my spread prediction, I expect this game to have a playoff-like feel, and points will come at a premium. Even though Richardson has played well lately, the Colts offense hasn’t been elite this year with the Florida Product or Flacco under center, as they rank 22nd in offensive DVOA. Additionally, in Richardson’s four road starts, the Colts have put up just 20.8 PPG.
Although the Colts have played a tough schedule, the Broncos defense won’t be much easier, as they are 5th in the NFL in defensive DVOA and rarely surrender points at home. The Browns put up 32 at Denver in Week 13, but Denver has given up just 14.8 PPG to their five other opponents. I already discussed how Indianapolis will have a fully healthy defense this Sunday, but their zone passing defense limits the opponent’s ability to make big plays. Denver put up 39 on Monday Night Football two weeks ago, but they benefited from two pick-sixes at the hands of Browns QB Jameis Winston and also had a 93-yard TD to WR Marvin Mims Jr. I don’t expect them to be gifted 21 points this Sunday, so Bo Nix + the Broncos offense will have to earn their points against an improving Colts defense.
Not only does Sunday’s contest have a playoff-like feel, but both teams are coming off a bye. Since 2003, the Under has gone 32-23 when two teams face off with 11-15 days of rest, and that trend is 13-1 to the Under since 2021. I expect this trend to continue on Sunday and am backing a low-scoring game in Denver, as both teams should struggle to score 20+ points.
Read our full Indianapolis Colts vs Denver Broncos predictions
