Andrew Wilsher
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After 3 fun games on Thanksgiving and Raiders vs Chiefs on Black Friday, we’ve been spoilt for NFL action this week. However, Week 13 rolls on with even more great games this Sunday, including a bunch of crunch matchups as we creep ever closer to the end of the season and teams battle it out to reach the playoffs. With tons on the line, let’s dive into our Pickswise experts’ 3-star NFL best bets for this Week 13 Sunday slate, while you can also find out our NFL picks on the side and total for EVERY matchup this season.
NFL Week 13 best bet: Houston Texans -3.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars (-112)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -4.5.
It will be a showdown between 2 division rivals at opposite ends of the AFC South when the Houston Texans visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday afternoon. It has been a disaster of a season for the Jaguars, who come into this one at 2-9. They are tied for the worst point differential (-108) in the AFC and the 2nd-worst in all of football. Trevor Lawrence figures to be back following a 2-game absence, but it’s not like Jacksonville’s offense was clicking even when its QB1 was under center. Lawrence has just 11 touchdown passes through 9 games to go along with 6 interceptions.
Things haven’t been going smoothly of late for the Texans. But coming off a loss and having by no means wrapped up the division title, they should deliver an inspired performance this weekend. CJ Stroud has been getting sacked a ton, and facing pressure has forced him into too many interceptions. Fortunately for Houston, Jacksonville is tied for the 5th-fewest sacks in the NFL with 21. The Jags’ anemic pass rush should give Stroud plenty of time to operate and utilize weapons such as Joe Mixon, Nico Collins and Tank Dell. Despite having not been at their best of late, the Texans have scored 23, 34 and 27 points in the past 3 outings. This is an enticing buy-low spot on the Texans against an atrocious opponent. Give me Houston to win and cover on Sunday.
Read our full Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars predictions
NFL Week 13 best bet: LA Rams -2.5 over New Orleans Saints (-120)
Odds available at Bet365 at time of publishing. Playable to -3.
The Los Angeles Rams travel to New Orleans for a Sunday matchup against the Saints after coming off a difficult home 37-20 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday Night Football. Under interim head coach Darren Rizzi, the Saints have played extremely well and are coming off their bye week after a 35-14 victory over the Cleveland Browns in Week 11. After starting the season 2-0, New Orleans lost 7 straight before winning each of the last 2 games. A big reason for that has been due to the rushing attack. The Saints have averaged 155 rushing yards per game since Rizzi took over and will now face a Rams defense that gives up 144.3 rushing yards per contest (28th in the NFL), 151.4 rushing yards per game on the road (29th in the NFL) and was just gashed by the Philadelphia Eagles and Saquon Barkley for 314 yards on SNF.
Meanwhile, Rams QB Matthew Stafford continues to play at a high level and leads a passing attack that puts up 236.7 yards per game overall (9th in the NFL). Additionally, LA’s passing attack has been red-hot since getting WRs Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back from injury and it has collected 258.4 passing yards per game on the road (4th in the NFL). The Saints’ secondary has been awful this year; they allow 256.6 passing yards (30th in the NFL) per game and just gave up 377 passing yards in Week 12. Additionally, they traded their best CB Marshon Lattimore to Washington, so they don’t pose much of a threat, and I anticipate that Stafford, Nacua and Kupp will have big days in New Orleans.
The Saints give up 23.6 points per game (T-20th in the NFL), while Los Angeles allows 25.1 PPG (26th in the NFL) — so I expect this game to be an up-and-down affair. While the Saints have looked better under Rizzi, their playoff chances aren’t as realistic as LA’s. The Rams are nearing must-win territory after dropping a home contest against the Eagles, so I expect Stafford and co to show a response. Sean McVay has gone 8-4 against NFC South opponents in the regular season. Look for this trend will continue when the Rams visit New Orleans.
Read our full LA Rams vs New Orleans Saints predictions
NFL Week 13 best bet: Buffalo Bills -6.5 over San Francisco 49ers (-120)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
Things just seem to be getting worse for the 49ers. One week after a shocking loss to the Seahawks at home, where they allowed their rival to go up 20-17 late in the 4th quarter after leading for the entire game, San Francisco got pounded by the Packers at Lambeau Field in Week 12. Of course, they were without their starting QB, Brock Purdy, but a struggling 49ers’ defense couldn’t stop the Packers rushing attack at any point in the contest (169 yards), while a healthy Christian McCaffrey and company only managed 44 yards on the ground (and just 10 points). To some, the return of McCaffrey signaled a potential playoff run for last year’s NFC champion, but it’s had more of a negative impact if anything. McCaffrey clearly isn’t in football shape; he lacks the explosiveness we’re used to seeing from him, and he’s only averaging 3.5 yards per carry. Jordan Mason, on the other hand, is averaging 5.1 ypc. What’s more – the Niners’ offense is averaging just 16.7 ppg with their star RB back in the lineup, a sign that his presence has felt forced and that his team is desperate for some sort of improvement.
And it might get even more negative after Week 13. Following an embarrassing loss at Green Bay, the Niners must travel across the country to clash with the Bills at one of the toughest venues in the NFL. Orchard Park, NY will be rocking in support of their team, a program that’s going in the complete opposite direction of their opponent on Sunday night. The Bills have won 6 straight games and they’re 5-0 at home. In their last 6 wins, which included impressive victories over the Seahawks, Dolphins and Chiefs, Buffalo has outscored opponents by an average margin of 11.6 ppg. Josh Allen has been playing at an MVP level during the latest stretch, throwing 10 TDs and just 4 interceptions while running for 156 yards and another 3 TDs. Their defense, which incurred early injuries and looked a bit underwhelming to start the season, has stepped up and shown the same vigor that we’ve come to expect from a Sean McDermott-led unit. They’re 7th in opponent ppg, 10th in opponent red-zone TD rate and 8th in opponent yards per pass.
Unfortunately for the road team and last year’s Super Bowl loser, Brock Purdy’s shoulder injury is very concerning. He practiced in very limited fashion on Tuesday, and coach Kyle Shanahan is being elusive about his status. This does not profile as a good situation for the 49ers, who are also facing Buffalo after their bye week. It’s Bills or nothing in this one.
Read our full San Francisco 49ers vs Buffalo Bills predictions
