Andrew Wilsher
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NFL Week 12 rolls on with a great Sunday slate of action. The Browns and Steelers contested a wild game on Thursday Night Football that saw Cleveland pull off the upset, and if the rest of Week 12’s matchups can live up to that level then we should be in for one heck of a Sunday. With a bunch of intriguing contests, including the 49ers trying to keep their season alive with a date in Green Bay against the Packers, let’s dive into our Pickswise experts’ 3-star NFL best bets for this Sunday’s games, while you can also find out our NFL picks on the side and total for EVERY matchup this season. Let’s dive in.
NFL Week 12 best bet: Detroit Lions -7.5 over Indianapolis Colts (-104)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -8.
The Detroit Lions will be looking to solidify their new status as Super Bowl favorites when they visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday afternoon. That’s right; the Detroit Lions are favored to win the Super Bowl. They assumed the top spot for the first time this season — and first time in franchise history — following this past week’s 52-6 humiliation of the Jacksonville Jaguars that coincided with the Kansas City Chiefs’ first loss. And it’s hard to argue with the odds. Detroit is an absolute wagon from an offensive standpoint. Jared Goff bounced back from his interception barrage in Week 10 by torching Jacksonville for 412 yards and 4 touchdowns on 25-of-29 passing. Amon-Ra St. Brown (2), David Montgomery (2) and Jahmyr Gibbs (1) scored at least 1 touchdown in the same game for the 8th time in their careers — already a record for 3 teammates in the history of the NFL.
Indianapolis +3.5 against the New York Jets was a 3-star best bet winner for me in Week 11, but I’m prepared to fade the Colts this time. After all, facing the Lions is the most opposite extreme you can possibly get compared to facing the Jets. Indy squandered all of a 13-0 lead over the Jets before recovering late, so that really doesn’t inspire much confidence. Jonathan Taylor averaging just 2.4 yards per carry in that game also isn’t encouraging. What’s even more worrying is that the Colts rank 26th in the league against the pass and 25th in opponents’ yards per pass attempt. How do you think they are going to stop Goff, St. Brown and the rest of the gang? However, at less than a touchdown (and PAT) it evokes max confidence. The Lions should continue to roll.
Read our full Detroit Lions vs Indianapolis Colts predictions
NFL Week 12 best bet: Dallas Cowboys +10.5 over Washington Commanders (-115)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing. Playable to +10.
We have a classic rivalry showdown here in the NFC East this week as the Washington Commanders get ready to host the Dallas Cowboys. A couple years ago it would have sounded crazy to say the Commanders would be one of the toasts of the league while the Cowboys would be a laughingstock, but that’s where we’re at. Dallas is in free-fall in the wake of Dak Prescott’s injury and it is coming off a blowout loss at home to the Texans.
I think there is value in buying low on the Cowboys. We are getting them at their absolute rock-bottom price in the market after the spanking on national TV at the hands of Houston that everyone saw, but it’s important not to overreact. This is a division game that’s going to be hard-fought, and getting double-digits is too good of an opportunity to pass up. I also just think Washington is a bit overrated. The Commanders are 3-3 in their last 6, and that figure gets worse when you dig into it. Their 3 wins in that span? They have come against the Giants, Panthers and Bears. New York and Carolina might be the 2 worst teams in the league and Chicago hasn’t looked much better of late. And even the Bears they only beat on a last-second, walk-off Hail Mary.
Jayden Daniels has quietly come back down to Earth following his red-hot start, and over his last 2 games he has just 1 touchdown while averaging fewer than 6 yards per attempt. Even against the G-Men, the Commanders only managed to win by 5 in a game that came down to the wire after they almost choked to Daniel Jones. As such, I don’t see any reason to feel good about laying double-digits with them on Sunday. The Cowboys have also played much better on the road this year; they are 0-5 at home but 3-2 on the road.
Read our full Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders predictions
NFL Week 12 best bet: Baltimore Ravens -3 over LA Chargers (-105)
Odds available at Bet365 at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
The “Harbaugh Bowl” has returned as John’s Ravens will travel across the country to take on Jim’s Chargers. Baltimore is coming off a loss that has NFL analysts shifting their opinions (again) on their potential, while the Chargers are off a huge win on Sunday night, holding off a melee by Joe Burrow and the Bengals. The market typically overreacts to these week-to-week situations, but we are encouraged to see that Baltimore is still getting the respect they deserve. We will argue they should get even more. Watching the Chargers this season proves how coaching can make a huge difference in football. Jim Harbaugh’s program is 7-3, competitive with the Chiefs in the AFC West, and they already have one of the NFL’s best defenses. Harbaugh has inherited a very talented roster on that side of the ball and he’s made the most out of it. And despite criticisms of the Bolts’ shallow wide-receiver depth chart, they’re doing plenty to win games (8th in yards/pass, 7.9). There is one area where the Chargers have consistently been a letdown all season, though – their run defense.
LA’s defense has mostly been terrific, but 11 weeks in they’re still allowing 4.7 yards per rush, a bottom-10 mark in the league (23rd). All year, good running teams have succeeded against the Chargers: Pittsburgh (114), Kansas City (110), Arizona (181) and Tennessee (157) to name a few. This is not great news with Derrick Henry and the Ravens coming to town, an offense that averages 5.8 yards/rush (1st) and 177.3 rush yards/game (2nd). On top of that, the Ravens are off a very emotional loss. Lamar Jackson is facing his share of criticism once again, with pundits and analysts claiming he cannot win “the big game” after another collapse against his rival. We’re not here to argue either way, but Sunday night does not qualify as a similar spot. The Ravens are angry, while the Chargers are probably a little too fat and sassy after surviving against Cincinnati and winning 4 straight. We like Baltimore to go off on Monday Night Football.
Read our full Baltimore Ravens vs LA Chargers predictions
