Andrew Wilsher
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NFL Week 11 is upon us and we’ve got one heck of a Sunday slate to get excited for. After the Eagles bested the Commanders in an NFC East clash on Thursday Night Football, we have a whole host of divisional matchups to look forward to including Packers vs Bears, Ravens vs Steelers and Seahawks vs 49ers. Perhaps the game of the week though is the potential AFC Championship game preview with Chiefs vs Bills.
Our expert picked Eagles -3.5 as their TNF best bet and now we have even more of our Pickswise experts’ 3-star NFL best bets for this Sunday’s games, while you can also find out our NFL picks on the side and total for EVERY matchup this season. Let’s dive in.
NFL Week 11 best bet: Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 over Baltimore Ravens (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +3.
We’ve got a crunch AFC North matchup here as the Ravens battle the Steelers on Sunday afternoon. This game marks the first divisional game for the hosts, who currently own a half-game lead over the Ravens in the division, as the Steelers will face 6 divisional opponents in their last 8 games this season. Pittsburgh has been one of the biggest surprises on 2024 and is coming off a thrilling 28-27 victory over the Washington Commanders on the road. I backed Mike Tomlin’s team in that game and I’ll go back to the well this week. Although QB Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are having a great year, this Steelers team is firing on all cylinders with Russell Wilson under center, as Mr. Unlimited has thrown for 6 TDs and 1 INT in 3 starts, outscoring their opponents by 31 points in the process. Not only that, but the Steelers’ defense is one of the best in the NFL, as they give up just 16.2 ppg (2nd in the NFL).
The Ravens enter Sunday’s game in Pittsburgh after taking down the Cincinnati Bengals in thrilling fashion on Thursday Night Football, 35-34. Jackson is leading the pack for NFL MVP, as Baltimore’s play-caller is 1st in the NFL in average completion (9.3), total passing + rushing TDs (26), QBR (76.9), passer rating (123.2) and only trails Bengals QB Joe Burrow by 3 passing yards. As good as Jackson has been, he is just 1-3 all-time against the Steelers as a starter, completing just 59.1% of his passes to go with 4 TDs and 7 INTs. If any team in the NFL knows how to slow down Mr. Jackson, it’s Mike Tomlin and the Steelers.
After last week, Tomlin improved to 62-35-4 ATS as an underdog and Wilson is now 41-23-2 ATS in his career as an underdog. Not only that, but the Steelers have gone 7-3 SU (6-3-1 ATS) against Baltimore in the last 10 meetings, covering or pushing every single time as an underdog. When AFC North opponents face off, backing the underdog is typically the right way to go, and I’m all in on this Steelers team this Sunday.
Read our full Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers predictions
NFL Week 11 best bet: Indianapolis Colts +4 over New York Jets (-110)
Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to 3.5.
The Indianapolis Colts can stick the final nail in the New York Jets’ season when these 2 AFC teams square off in the Meadowlands on Sunday afternoon. New York dropped to 3-7 with a horrible performance last weekend, falling to the Arizona Cardinals 31-6. Mathematically, the Jets are still alive — however, they were already in a virtual must-win situation against Arizona and just look at how they performed. What’s to say they will raise their level now they are literally facing a must-win scenario? I don’t think I would give any opponent more than a field goal with the Jets right now. Heck, I might not even back them to beat anyone straight up. With nothing left to play for aside from a very high pick in next year’s draft, interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich’s outfit may not put in a maximum effort from this point forward.
Things aren’t a whole lot better for the Colts at 4-6, but they still inspire a lot more confidence than the Jets. 5 of Indianapolis’ losses have come to opponents with winning records (Houston twice, Green Bay, Minnesota and Buffalo). 5 of Indy’s losses have come by 1 possession and not once has it lost by more than 10 points. Jonathan Taylor is the healthiest he has been all year and rushed for 114 yards on 21 attempts against the Bills this past week. On the other side of the ball, Indy limited Buffalo QB Josh Allen to just 22-of-37 passing and he was picked off twice without throwing a touchdown pass. I’m backing the Colts with a ton of confidence on Sunday.
Read our full Indianapolis Colts vs New York Jets predictions
NFL Week 11 best bet: Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 over Buffalo Bills (-110)
Odds available at Bet365 at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
One of the biggest games of the 2024 NFL season will take place in Buffalo on Sunday between a pair of familiar foes; the Bills and Chiefs. Kansas City enters this game following yet another miraculous victory over the Broncos a week ago, in which the Chiefs blocked what would have been a game-winning field goal from Denver as time expired. As for the hosts, the Bills have won 5 straight games by an average of over 12.2 points and certainly look like the biggest threat to Andy Reid’s team in their pursuit of an unprecedented third straight championship.
Everyone knows how great Patrick Mahomes has been as an underdog in his career, but the numbers are still worth repeating. Over the course of his career, Mahomes is 12-1-1 against the spread as an underdog, including an 11-3 straight-up record in those spots. In fact, Mahomes is 25-10 straight up and a whopping 26-8-1 against the number when listed as an underdog, or favored by 3 points or less. It’s just the fourth time in the Super Bowl era that a 9-0 team (or better) is listed as an underdog, making this an extremely rare circumstance as well. And while I’ve had my eye on this game since the offseason as a spot where Buffalo would prevail at home, I can’t quite get there with this line given what the Bills are likely going to be missing on the field in this one. Yes, what Kansas City is doing is unsustainable by any metric. After all, this is a team that has won 9 straight games when trailing by at least 7 points. Much like it did last season, the Chiefs’ offense has relied on late-game heroics and 3rd and 4th-down magic from Mahomes to consistently win games. Even though fading this incredible streak of good fortune is the logical approach to this game (and going forward), betting on that Mahomes magic to regress is simply a losing battle over time, as many professional bettors learned the hard way during the playoffs a season ago.
Buffalo is once again getting a tremendous season from Josh Allen, as he continues to play like one of the best talents we’ve seen at the quarterback position. However, the Bills are dealing with some key injuries on the offensive side of the ball, particularly when it comes to providing viable pass-catches for Allen to find downfield. Rookie wideout Keon Coleman has already been ruled out for this game, and both Amari Cooper and Dalton Kincaid are unlikely to suit up on Sunday. We already know that Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady wants to establish the run on early downs, especially with a banged-up receiving corps. Therefore, Steve Spagnuolo’s defense should have the upper hand in this matchup, as Kansas City is a top-5 unit in DVOA against the run. In addition to the injuries that we’re seeing with Buffalo’s offense, there’s also a massive coaching advantage from a situational perspective in this one. It’s difficult to trust Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott to make the right in-game coaching decisions when things get tight late in the game, given how we’ve seen him falter repeatedly in critical moments in recent years. This one has all of the makings of another extremely close meeting between these teams, so let’s take the points with Kansas City.
Read our full Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills predictions
