Andrew Wilsher
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Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the NFL Playoffs! The postseason has arrived and it’s win-or-go-home time for the 14 teams still in contention for Super Bowl glory. We have 6 fantastic games on tap across Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Saturday features Chargers vs Texans and Steelers vs Ravens in an AFC doubleheader, while Sunday offers us Broncos vs Bills, Packers vs Eagles and rounds off with Commanders vs Buccaneers. The Monday Night Football matchup pits the Vikings against the Rams. With one of the best NFL weekends of the year on the horizon, let’s dive right into our Pickswise experts’ NFL best bets for the Wild Card round, while you can also find out our NFL picks on the side and total for EVERY game.
NFL Wild Card best bet: LA Chargers -3 over Houston Texans (+100)
Odds available at Bet365 at time of publishing. Playable to -120.
For the first time in a long time, arrows are pointing up on the Chargers’ future. Although LAC has many of the same stars from previous campaigns, including their burgeoning QB, Justin Herbert, this is the first year that Jim Harbaugh led the team. Harbaugh, at this point, is one of the more famous figures in football, for good reason. After leading the Michigan Wolverines to their first championship in 39 years, Harbaugh has turned around the Chargers, a franchise that’s been cyclically shooting itself in the foot for over a decade. Under Harbaugh, no defense allows fewer points (17.7 per game), and the Bolts have a balanced offense with a top-10 passing attack in a slew of statistical categories (like their 9th-ranked 7.6 yards per pass).
Last year, the Texans were in a very similar situation to what the Chargers are experiencing this season. CJ Stroud was the talk of the town, a scintillating rookie thrower who seemed too poised for his age, with a new coach and above-average defense that instantly flipped Houston’s brand. This year, it hasn’t been as impressive. Some of their statistics are still exceptional, like their ability to limit explosive plays (they’re 4th in opponent yards per play), and of course, Stroud still has arm talent that most young QBs would die for. But it’s still different. The Texans are not winning the big games any more. They lost by margin to Minnesota, Kansas City and Baltimore, and were lucky to catch Detroit on a day where the Lions committed 5 turnovers. They still lost by a field goal.
From a gambling perspective, the Texans aren’t fooling anyone. They’re just 7-8-2 ATS this season, with most of their covers delivered against programs like Tennessee, Dallas and New England; aka bottom feeders. The Chargers’ gambling records also check out– they’re one of the best in the NFL (12-5 ATS), and they’re even better as a road favorite (5-1 ATS). Everything about Houston’s season has been underwhelming, and we would be crazy to believe that they’ll suddenly change just because it’s a home game on Saturday. The Chargers are the better team and we have little doubt that Harbaugh will have them as prepared as they’ve ever been to win and cover.
Read our full LA Chargers vs Houston Texans predictions
NFL Wild Card best bet: Buffalo Bills -8.5 over Denver Broncos (-112)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -9.
The NFL playoffs are an occasion where narratives dominate the discourse. From mainstream sports television shows to social media-based gambling content, most of the discussion around each game this weekend is largely going to center around narratives and popular opinion. With that said, much like the NBA playoffs have proven to us for years now, there are plenty of tried and true NFL postseason talking points that do align with what the data has borne out over the past quarter-century. One of those playoff trends that has consistently cashed over the years is fading the rookie quarterback who is making his first playoff start against a quarterback with playoff experience, and that’s part of why I’ll be laying the points with the Bills in this AFC Wild Card round matchup in Buffalo on Sunday.
Per Evan Abrams, rookie quarterbacks making their first playoff start against a QB with playoff experience are just 19-37-1 against the spread (34%) since 2002. Furthermore, when those less experienced QBs play on the road, they are just 12-19-1 against the number. Couple that strong historical data with the fact that this is just massive step up in class for Denver in one of the toughest places to play across the league and I can’t get behind a wager with the Broncos at anything below double digits.
Denver has been a great story this season, but it’s important to remember that the Broncos had just 2 wins against playoff teams in the regular season, and 1 of those wins was over the Kansas City backups last Sunday. This was a team that got demolished by the Ravens earlier in the season and just lost important, playoff-like games against the Bengals and Chargers in recent weeks. Now, Bo Nix is taking on a Bills defense that is getting healthy at the right time, particularly in the secondary with the return of their starting safeties and All-Pro slot corner Taron Johnson. The Bills’ weakness as a defense is against the run, but that’s not at all what Denver does well, relying instead on the short and intermediate passing game to work its way methodically down the field. With that in mind, Sean McDermott’s scheme should actually be effective in limiting the scoring opportunities for Denver’s offense.
On the other side, Josh Allen and most of the Buffalo offense got some much-needed rest a week ago, and this is a unit that has essentially been scoring 30+ points at will over the second half of the season, regardless of opponent. Since the Wild Card round expanded to 7 teams, five of the eight #7 seeds have lost by at least 12 points in this round. Additionally, favorites of at least 9 points in the Wild Card Round are 13-3 against the spread, which can only point me in the direction of the Bills here. Buffalo was just laying a full 10 points to a similarly power-rated Pittsburgh team in last season’s Wild Card matchup at home, so let’s take a bit of a discount on the Bills to lay the lumber this week.
Read our full Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills predictions
NFL Wild Card best bet: Washington Commanders +3 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-115)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
The Sunday night primetime matchup on Super Wild Card Weekend pits the Washington Commanders against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Just like last year, Tampa Bay took the back door into the playoffs by winning the moribund NFC South. Unlike last year, the Bucs don’t get to face an opponent that is spiraling out of control — as the Philadelphia Eagles were 12 months ago. This time around it’s a much different beast from the NFC East.
The Commanders lost at Tampa Bay in Week 1 of the regular season, but this is an entirely different football team now. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has emerged as one of the most dynamic signal-callers in the league and he has led Washington to 5 straight wins heading into the playoffs — including 1 over the NFC East champion Eagles. 4 of the Commanders’ 5 setbacks in their 12-5 record have come against playoff teams.
It is true that the Bucs are playing well (6-1 record in their last 7 games), but — after getting swept by the Atlanta Falcons — they needed a second-half collapse by Atlanta to steal the worst division in football. As for their 6-1 stretch, enthusiasm surrounding it should be tempered. They own just 1 win over a playoff opponent (the Los Angeles Chargers) during this stretch and their loss came to an atrocious Dallas Cowboys squad.
In a must-win situation in Week 18, Tampa Bay came relatively close to being upset by the New Orleans Saints — who were without question one of the worst teams in the NFL down the stretch, and really dating all the way back to Week 3. Baker Mayfield is balling, but there isn’t a lot to like about this team other than Mayfield and Mike Evans. There is no way I’m giving a field goal to the Commanders, who have a good chance to also win outright.
Read our full Washington Commanders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers prediction
