Andrew Wilsher
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NFL Week 4 is upon us and so far we’ve seen a ton of upsets already this season. Last week, the 49ers got downed by a depleted Rams team, while the Vikings dominated the Texans. On top of that, we saw a shootout for the ages as the Commanders beat the Bengals 38-33 on primetime football. So, what does Week 4 have in store? We already saw the Cowboys squeak past the Giants on TNF, but we have a ton more exciting action to sink our teeth into. Let’s get into the action with our Pickswise experts’ 3-star NFL best bets for Week 4, while you can also find out our NFL picks on the side and total for EVERY matchup this season.
NFL Week 4 best bet: Jaguars +6.5 over Texans (-112)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -6.
We have a crucial AFC South matchup on our hands with our Jaguars vs Texans prediction and both teams are out to bounce back from crushing defeats in Week 3. The Texans were decimated 34-7 by the Vikings on Sunday before the Jaguars were humiliated 47-10 by the Bills. Having been 4.5-point underdogs on Monday morning, that annihilation in Buffalo has now pushed Jacksonville out by another 2 points and I believe it’s worth jumping on them now that public perception is so low.
I won’t sugarcoat it — the Jags looked awful in that game in Buffalo. Trevor Lawrence has completed barely 50% of his passes this season while the defense was schooled by Josh Allen. However, I’m expecting this team to come out firing in a big divisional game where they know that a win here will suddenly put them 1 win out of first place in the AFC South. This defense has what it takes to slow down opposing offenses, as we saw them do against the Dolphins and Browns, and has allowed the 8th-fewest yards per carry.
As for the Texans, we know this team is loaded with talent but I certainly wouldn’t be rushing to back them as favorites by a touchdown against a divisional rival after such a big defeat to the Vikings. And even before that loss, Houston had relied on narrow victories to get past the Colts and Bears. CJ Stroud has yet to take it to high gear and repeat last season’s heroics, while the absence of Joe Mixon last week led to the Texans having just 38 rushing yards. While the Jags should be motivated to bounce back, I believe Houston will feel under pressure to deliver on their lofty expectations, after a fairly underwhelming start to the season. For my Jaguars vs Texans best bet I’m going with Jacksonville to keep it within a touchdown — and can even see them defying the odds and winning this outright.
Read our full Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans predictions
NFL Week 4 best bet: Browns +2 over Raiders (-115)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +1.5.
Two struggling AFC teams will look to right their respective ships here as the Cleveland Browns get ready to take on the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 4. Both teams are coming off ugly losses, as the Browns fell as big favorites at home to the Giants while the same happened to the Raiders against the Panthers. Las Vegas’ loss was so bad that after the game head coach Antonio Pierce said some of his players made “business decisions” down the stretch, that would cause the team to make “business decisions” of their own. It’s pretty early in the season to hear that kind of talk from a head coach at a postgame presser. The vibes have already gone south for both teams pretty quickly, but at least Cleveland has more to be excited about on defense. Cleveland is only letting opposing quarterbacks complete 58.8% of their passes this year, which is the 4th-best mark in the league.
I’m pretty low on Deshaun Watson, but even he should be able to get something going here against the defense that just made Andy Dalton look like Patrick Mahomes. Dalton threw for 319 yards and 3 touchdowns against the barely-there Raiders defense last week, and Chuba Hubbard was able to slice them up and average 5.4 yards per rush out of the backfield. Las Vegas was getting a ton of praise from all corners of the media last week for their surprise win over the Ravens, which was clearly a fluke even at the time. They got outgained 383-260 in that game, and they were very fortunate to escape with a victory as they averaged 1.6 yards per carry on the ground and Gardner Minshew got sacked 5 times. Minshew will likely struggle against Jim Schwartz’s defense, and there’s no way I could lay points with a team that just got thumped by the Panthers. For my Browns vs Raiders best bet, I’m taking Cleveland with a ton of confidence.
Read our full Cleveland Browns vs Las Vegas Raiders predictions
NFL Week 4 best bet: Bills +2.5 over Ravens (-110)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing. Playable to +1.5.
The Baltimore Ravens are fresh off their first win of the season but it was mighty impressive. Entering Dallas as a mere 1-point favorite, Baltimore ran away with the game, literally and figuratively, from the opening kickoff, stacking up over 250 yards on the ground and over 450 total against a Dallas operation that was embarrassed the week prior. That’s not easy to do in any venue, let alone AT&T Stadium when the ‘Boys are motivated. It also wasn’t that surprising. Despite their 1-2 record, the Ravens are 5th in total DVOA rankings. And despite their mediocre defensive performances so far this season (allowing 26 ppg), they’re the #1 run-defense in the NFL (allowing just 2.8 yards per rush, 50 yards per game). Normally, one might think this is a major advantage when playing the Bills, who love to run James Cook and Josh Allen and anyone else who wants to take part. The issue is, we’re not sure how accurate the Ravens’ defensive metrics are in the run game, and we’re positive they’re less capable against the pass (7.5 yards per pass allowed, ranked 28th). Baltimore slowed down the Chiefs’ run-game, which was impressive. The Raiders, on the other hand, are the worst running team in the NFL, and Dallas was trailing all game and their run-game is terrible, too.
Insert the Buffalo Bills. In short, the Bills have done nothing to suggest they deserve an underdog spread in any way. In this Week 4 scenario, they could easily be the favorite. They’re the #1 team in DVOA, with the most explosive offense in the league through 3 games. No team is scoring more (37 ppg), and since the second half of Week 1, they’ve outscored opponents 104-31. Their offense has overshadowed a defense that’s only permitting 4.2 yards per play (2nd), 16 ppg (7th), and a 33.33% TD rate in the red zone (7th). This spread sits where it does because Baltimore is at home and coming off a seminal win, but we are not stepping in front of the Buffalo Bills. In what should be a raucous environment and extremely fun game to watch, give me Buffalo running away in the fourth quarter.
Read our full Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens predictions
