Andrew Wilsher
Just 4 teams remain in the NFL Playoffs as we move onto the Conference Championships. Sunday’s huge doubleheader gets started with the NFC Championship Game as the Washington Commanders and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels look to continue their fairytale run against Saquon Barkley and the Philadelphia Eagles. That game kicks off at 3:00 pm ET on FOX. The AFC Championship Game sees another chapter added to the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs rivalry, with that matchup underway at 6:30 pm ET on CBS. Let’s dive into our Pickswise experts’ NFL best bets for each Conference Championship game, while you can also find out our NFL picks on the side and total for both matchups.
Commanders vs Eagles best bet: Washington Commanders +6.5 (-120)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +6.
The Commanders and Eagles will meet for a 3rd time this season and while the entire football world is engrossed over the enigma that is Jayden Daniels, apparently the market doesn’t agree. The Eagles have risen from -4.5 opening chalk to now as high as -6.5 favorites at many books, an understandable designation but one that will undoubtedly allure many public bettors to put some hard-earned cash on Washington’s new prodigy — and we don’t blame them!
Daniels is mystifying, showing poise and exceptional in-game decision-making as if he’s been in the NFL for a decade. He presents a very Patrick Mahomes-like demeanor, with an equally Mahomes-like ability to make plays either with his arm or legs in unconventional ways. As we’ve seen many times before, a franchise can be very flawed and still win championships when they get their coach and quarterback right, and it seems that’s what the Commanders are moving towards. Last weekend, Daniels was nearly perfect, throwing 22-31 for 299 yards, 2 touchdowns, and another 51 yards on the ground. No one would have predicted this prodigious climb in year 1 of Daniels’ career, but the Commanders are responding and playing exceptionally well across their roster.
Last week, in Detroit, the Commanders forced Jared Goff into 3 uncharacteristic interceptions. They immediately put pressure on the Lions’ esteemed thrower, sacking him twice and knocking him down another 7 times. Goff was under constant duress, and while the Lions still gained 521 yards and 31 points, we still consider it a major win for their defense. The Lions are always an offensive juggernaut at home, but most of their production was gained because they were playing from behind. Fascinatingly, after Washington went up 17-14 halfway through the 2nd quarter, Detroit never gained another lead, so Goff and a desperate offense were playing catchup for 63% of the game.
We have less to say about the Eagles because we’re not as impressed. Winning at home against a program you’ve always matched up well against is, at this point, an expectation for the Eagles, but the truth is they barely got past the Rams. Saquon Barkley (205 rushing yards) and a tenacious defense (5 sacks, forced 2 turnovers) were the 2 biggest reasons why they succeeded, factors that we’re certainly considering as this Sunday approaches. Still, for the 2nd straight week, Jalen Hurts and the pass-offense was rather anemic, accruing just 65 total passing yards. Hurts was also sacked 7 times and they just couldn’t put the game away like we’ve seen so many times in the past.
Washington coach Dan Quinn and of course rookie sensation Daniels are less experienced in these big-game situations in the NFL. We could care less. Daniels and his colleagues have shown that they can handle the pressure and that only amplifies when you consider the familiarity of a divisional opponent. Over their past 4 meetings, the Commanders are 1-3, but they’ve only lost by 3, 7 and 8-point margins, and they were all before they had Daniels in his current form. We’re going with the dog.
Read our full Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles predictions
Bills vs Chiefs best bet: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (-115)
Odds available at Bet365 at time of publishing. Playable to -2.5.
In what promises to be another legendary matchup, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen will meet for the 4th time in the last 5 years of the AFC playoffs. In every one of the last 3 wars, the Chiefs have come out the victor, although it’s worth noting that their last 2 wins were extremely close (one required overtime, the other decided by just a field goal). With all that in mind, it’s not a mystery why the spread sits at a humble -1.5 in favor of the home team, a designation that suggests oddsmakers think that these 2 outfits are relatively even.
Of course, it’s very hard to measure the Kansas City Chiefs and their winning ways. Short-minded prognosticators will point towards fortunate penalties and lucky bounces as the reasons why KC just keeps succeeding, but we know better. The combination of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes is second to none, a synergistic partnership that reflects the peak of championship form, especially in the game’s most pressurized moments. Yes, we know, it’s not always in the stats, but Mahomes tends to find a way when his team needs it, and so does his favorite target, Travis Kelce.
Taylor Swift’s boyfriend had a mediocre season, especially compared to his previous standards, but one game into the postseason and he grabs 7 catches (on 8 targets) for 117 yards and a touchdown. If it wasn’t Kelce, it would have been someone else, and it’s not like they don’t have the talent. Isiah Pacheco, Hollywood Brown, rookie Xavier Worthy and the second-chance kid, Kareem Hunt, have all been game changers before. The KC defense was also ultra-impressive, sacking a feisty CJ Stroud 8 times and limiting Houston in the most integral moments. For example, the Texans were 1-3 in the red zone and scored just 2 points in the 4th quarter. At Arrowhead, we can’t remember the last time an offense exploded against the home team; it just doesn’t happen very often.
But if any team is ready to get by the Chiefs, it’s the Bills, and they already did it once this season. Back in Week 11, Buffalo executed a superior game plan against their rival, preventing Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense from ever launching into a big lead. Buffalo forced an interception on Kansas City’s very first drive, capitalizing on it for a quick touchdown lead, and later they forced another interception on Mahomes’ last drive, effectively ending the contest. Josh Allen was magnificent, finishing the match with 2 straight touchdown drives in the 4th quarter. Allen was responsible for 145 of those 153 combined yards, either by running or passing.
One was left wondering what would have happened if Mahomes never threw those 2 interceptions, and now he’ll have the chance to seek revenge at home. Our favorite bet on this game is teasing up Buffalo to +7.5 or +8, but Kansas City is at home and now they’re seeking “revenge,” however superficial it may be, from their loss earlier this season. They’re also seeking to be the first team in NFL history to win 3 straight Super Bowls; it doesn’t get more motivating than that. Mahomes and Reid don’t typically trip twice against the same program, and they own the better defense. As much as we’d like to see Buffalo in the big dance, we can’t bet with our hearts.
Read our full Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs predictions
