Andrew Ortenberg
Show Bio
One of the most highly anticipated matchups of Week 5 is this AFC North clash between the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers, and what better way to celebrate the bitter rivalry game than by betting a Same Game Parlay? You can also read all our other NFL Week 5 picks here, but now let’s get right into it:
Over 50.5 alternate total (+470)
Mark Andrews to score a touchdown (+200)
Parlay odds: +1016
We have a 2-leg Same Game Parlay which pays out at north of 10/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
Over 50.5 alternate total (+470)
There are reasons to believe the offensive ceilings in this game are a bit higher than oddsmakers expect. The Ravens revamped their offense in the offseason when they finally moved on from OC Greg Roman, and it appears to have worked wonders for Lamar Jackson. Last week against a vaunted Browns defense that had been roughing up opponents left and right, the Ravens were still able to score 28 points. Jackson averaged 9.8 yards per attempt against Cleveland, and he hasn’t thrown an interception in 3 straight games.
He’s also as dynamic as ever as a runner, and he’s got 4 rushing touchdowns in the past 2 weeks. It also looks like Baltimore is going to get back Odell Beckham Jr. this week after the star receiver missed the past couple of games with an injury, which is a big boost. On the other side, I think Baltimore’s defense is a bit fraudulent. Some of the Ravens’ season-long metrics look pretty dang good, but just look at who they’ve played.
In Week 1 they got the Texans at home with a rookie quarterback making his first career start, then they played Gardner Minshew filling in for an injured Anthony Richardson. After that it was games against Joe Burrow on one leg, and against Dorian Thompson-Robinson, a rookie fifth-round pick who was thrust into action at short notice due to Deshaun Watson’s shoulder injury. They’ve faced two rookies, one veteran backup and a hobbled Burrow.
All that tells me that they’re due for some regression on defense. And while the Steelers are coming off an offensive dud in their most recent game, they had scored at least 23 in each of their previous two.
Mark Andrews to score a touchdown (+200)
This correlates nicely with the first leg of our Same Game Parlay, since if this total is soaring over 50.5 it likely means that the Ravens’ passing game had a lot of success. Andrews has had a nose for the end zone early on, as he’s racked up 3 touchdowns through his first 3 games. He often seems to come up clutch in division games, and he had 2 touchdowns last week against the Browns and another in Week 2 against the Bengals.
The last time he played the Steelers, Andrews had 9 catches and 100 yards in Week 18 last year. Pittsburgh doesn’t have great cover linebackers, and the Steelers can be exploited by tight ends. Last week they gave up a touchdown to Houston’s Dalton Schultz. Jackson has some fun new toys in this offense, but Andrews is always going to be Ol’ Reliable.
Odds of +200 imply a win probability of only 33%, and Andrews has 37 touchdowns in 80 career NFL games. Especially with the Steelers’ still-formidable pass-rush, I’d expect Jackson to be looking to dump it off to his tight end even more than usual.
Check out all our NFL content via our NFL Week 5 Betting Guide
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a Same Game Parlay and where can I bet it?
