Andrew Ortenberg
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The NFL Week 4 slate is here and with it we have some marquee matchups — including this one in the AFC North as the Cleveland Browns welcome the Baltimore Ravens. What better way to celebrate this rivalry showdown than by betting a Same Game Parlay? Here we go:
Baltimore Ravens -9.5 alt spread (+430)
Lamar Jackson to rush for 70+ yards (+200)
Parlay odds: +1001
We have a 2-leg Same Game Parlay which pays out at north of 10/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
Baltimore Ravens -9.5 alt spread (+430)
To start off this parlay we have the Ravens on an alternate number. I don’t think we should overreact too much to Baltimore’s disappointing loss to the Colts last week. For whatever reason, Indy defensive coordinator Gus Bradley has always seemed to have Lamar Jackson’s number. The week before that they were dominating the Bengals in Cincinnati, so I’m not too concerned. Sure the Ravens are a bit banged up but the Browns have some injuries of their own, and this is going to be the first time Cleveland has had to play Baltimore without Nick Chubb since the 2017 season.
Perhaps even more importantly, Deshaun Watson is also dealing with a shoulder injury. Watson is going to play, but he barely threw the ball this week and for a while it looked like the team was going to have to roll with rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center — so I wouldn’t expect him to be 100 percent.
Watson and the Browns’ offense had a decent game against the Titans last week, but that has more to do with Tennessee being a dumpster fire than anything else. Even with that good game under his belt Watson is still averaging just 6.6 YPA on the year, and he’s taken 12 sacks through 3 games.
Lamar Jackson to rush for 70+ yards (+200)
I think this correlates nicely with the first leg of our parlay, and at +200 this prop also has some serious standalone value. Last year was an injury-plagued season where Jackson often looked hesitant to run, and he still finished with 70+ rushing yards in 6 of the 12 games he appeared in. And now he’s fully healthy and we’re getting 2/1 on this. Last week Jackson had 101 rushing yards, and with JK Dobbins lost for the season with a torn Achilles’, LJ may be forced to take on a more prominent role as a rusher.
It also probably doesn’t hurt for this prop that both Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman have been ruled out. Cleveland’s defense has amazing metrics, but those are probably a bit misleading. The Browns have gone up against the Titans and Steelers the last 2 weeks — 2 of the most dysfunctional offenses in the league.
Cleveland’s strength on defense is its pass-rush, so I expect Jackson to be playing from outside the pocket plenty on Sunday and being forced to improvise with Myles Garrett and co getting into the backfield quickly.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a Same Game Parlay and where can I bet it?
