Caleb Wilfinger
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The AFC South is not the most glamorous division by any stretch of the imagination. Two of the worst teams in football will be hovering near the basement all season, with the Texans and Colts expected to challenge for the league’s worst record. Then you have the Titans, who are an interesting team caught in the middle between contender and obvious non-playoff team. The Jacksonville Jaguars are the clear class of this division on paper, but have their odds to win the AFC South got a little out of hand?
With the 2023 NFL campaign on the horizon, it’s time to break down the AFC East. Let’s get into it, with odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Houston Texans (+1000)
Since blowing a 24-point lead to the Chiefs in the Divisional Round of the 2020 playoffs, the Texans have fallen off a cliff, finishing with a combined record of 11-34-1 over the last 3 regular seasons. This season represents a new start for Houston, as the Texans had their most productive NFL Draft in years and signed a myriad of free agents who should aid their rookies during this rebuilding process. With a complete overhaul of their offense having taken place in the offseason and additional pieces added on defense, the rebuild is well underway in Houston. The schedule isn’t kind to rookie QB CJ Stroud and company, so it’s hard to see the Texans going over their win total.
Make sure you also check out our Houston Texans team preview
Indianapolis Colts (+550)
The 2022 season was miserable for the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts haven’t reached the same heights since the retirement of Andrew Luck, and it bottomed out last fall with an abysmal 4-12-1 season and a top-5 pick in the NFL Draft. News around the Colts hasn’t been great in recent weeks, as there have been injuries and drama around the status of Jonathan Taylor, who could be traded at some point this season. Will the addition of rookie QB Anthony Richardson give Indianapolis new life heading into the 2023 season, or will this year be just as terrible as the previous season as the Colts begin the long rebuilding process?
Make sure you also check out our Indianapolis Colts team preview
Jacksonville Jaguars (-155)
2022 started with a ton of questions for the Jacksonville Jaguars, but it ended with a division championship and miraculous comeback victory over the Chargers in the wild-card round. Jacksonville was likely a year ahead of schedule, but now the expectations will rise this season. A division title is a requirement now, and QB Trevor Lawrence is expected to make the leap in his third full season under center. What can the Jaguars do now that there are expectations placed upon them? Is a run at the Super Bowl in the cards for Doug Pederson’s squad, or will they crumble under the weight of expectations?
Make sure you also check out our Jacksonville Jaguars team preview
Tennessee Titans (+310)
Looking back, it would have been hard for Tennessee to replicate its magical 2021 season, and the 2022 campaign almost seemed doomed to be a lost season from the start. Last fall was a season of regression for the Titans, as Tennessee missed the playoffs and struggled with injuries and unfortunate luck, a complete role reversal from the season prior. The Titans now enter this season in the position of being underrated and overlooked, a spot where head coach Mike Vrabel often excels at getting the absolute most out of his team. With how different each of the last 2 seasons have gone, what can we expect from the Titans this season? I’m not sure I see the path to a division title, but 9 wins is certainly possible.
Make sure you also check out our Tennessee Titans team preview
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AFC South division predictions
Jacksonville Jaguars (11-6)
Tennessee Titans (8-9)
Indianapolis Colts (5-12)
Houston Texans (4-13)
AFC East best bet: Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South (-155)
Jacksonville is a fascinating team to handicap this season. Looking at this roster in Pederson’s second year as head coach, I expect another leap forward from the defending AFC South champs, who got better over the offseason thanks to their additions in the NFL Draft and bringing Calvin Ridley into the wide receiving room. What also makes the Jags’ division odds worth a play at this number is the general weakness of the division they play in. Outside of the Titans, the rest of the AFC South is extremely suspect and Jacksonville should be favored in all 4 games against the Colts and Texans. If they can avoid the injury bug and Lawrence takes another step forward, the Jaguars should coast to a division title and big things could be expected in Jacksonville come January.
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