Phil Agius
Show Bio
The 2023 NFL season is on the way and the league looks more lopsided than it has for years. The AFC seems to be by far the more competitive half of the league and we have another almighty battle in store before the 7 playoff qualifiers are decided. One thing is for sure, there will be some seriously talented teams in the playoffs again this season as the contenders line up for a chance to take down the reigning AFC and Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Cincinnati Bengals managed it in 2021, but the Chiefs have represented the AFC in 3 of the last 4 Super Bowls and are not going to be knocked off their conference throne easily.
Everywhere you look in this conference there are teams who might just be able to make a run and take it to the Chiefs, but so many questions remain: Do the Bills have another run in them or have they missed their best chance? Can the Bengals rise again? Will Tua Tagovailoa be able to stay healthy to lead a talented Dolphins roster to glory? Are the Jaguars the real deal? Can Deshaun Watson regain his former elite status to bring success to the Browns? Can Sean Payton turn the Broncos around? Will the Chargers finally put it all together? Will the Ravens soar again? And arguably the most interesting one of all: Does the arrival of Aaron Rodgers make the Jets a serious challenger?
It’s going to be fun finding out, for sure, so let’s look at our favorite futures bets for the AFC. Keep reading as we look at the latest AFC odds and our NFL picks as the Road to Super Bowl 58 begins.
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AFC Championship winner odds
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Kansas City Chiefs +350
Buffalo Bills +450
Cincinnati Bengals +500
Baltimore Ravens +1000
New York Jets +1000
Miami Dolphins +1200
Los Angeles Chargers +1300
Jacksonville Jaguars +1500
Cleveland Browns +1700
Pittsburgh Steelers +2500
New England Patriots +3000
Denver Broncos +3000
Tennessee Titans +4500
Las Vegas Raiders +5500
Indianapolis Colts +6500
Houston Texans +8500
AFC Championship best bet: Kansas City Chiefs (+350)
The Chiefs have represented the AFC in 3 of the last 4 Super Bowls, with the only blemish in that record being an overtime loss to the Bengals in the 2021 AFC Championship game. That’s a sensational record and if the Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes axis conjures up more magic this season they could match the Patriots’ run of 4 Super Bowl appearances in 5 years that immediately preceded their own first success.
The roster and Arrowhead Stadium remains pretty much intact and with the same leadership in place the good times could keep rolling. Wide receivers Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster have moved on but that is more than compensated for by the drafting of Rashee Rice and the development of Skyy Moore. With Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Kadarius Toney also backed up by exciting prospect Justyn Ross, Mahomes has plenty of weapons to get creative with before you even mention league-leading tight end Travis Kelce. RB Isiah Pacheco shined as an unheralded rookie last season, and while there have been changes on the offensive line, new starting tackles Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor could be just what is needed to keep Mahomes safe.
So, let’s answer some of those questions above to see why the many potential challengers for the Chiefs’ crown might fall short. It’s possible that the window may just have closed for the Bills team that looked almost to have passed the Chiefs over the last couple of seasons. They may need to retool and recharge for another run with a new supporting cast for Josh Allen. The Bills were favorite for the conference last season but might prove to be a team that never quite reached their potential. The Bengals and Ravens are next in the betting, with the Bengals deserving to be the AFC North favorites but also facing what is likely to be a much stronger challenge from the Browns with Deshaun Watson now back up to speed after his year out and 11-game suspension. That divisional fight could take its toll on all the participants and the same may be the case in the AFC East with the Jets and Dolphins fighting the Bills and still having to deal with Bill Belichick and the Patriots too. The Jets and Dolphins in particular are exciting prospects this season but Tua Tagovailoa’s health has to be a huge concern for Miami backers, even though the team is loaded with talent on both sides of the ball.
The Chargers still don’t convince that they can put it all together despite the ability to impress on any given Sunday and the Broncos should make a Jaguars-style improvement thanks to a huge coaching upgrade in the form of Sean Payton. Chasing the Chiefs is a tough task, though, and their AFC West rivals have the worst of it.
AFC Championship longshot bet: Jacksonville Jaguars (+1500)
The division we didn’t discuss above was the AFC South, which went to the Jaguars last season and should go the same way again. The Titans, Colts and Texans all had losing records and none has an ideal QB situation, with Ryan Tannehill of the Titans coming to the end of his tenure as a starter and the Colts and Texans set to hand they keys to their offenses to rookie passers in Anthony Richardson and CJ Stroud. Both could be big hits in the long-term, but not likely this season.
The Jaguars should have more progress to make this season, a further 12 months removed from the Urban Meyer debacle and with Super Bowl winner Doug Pederson having had more time to get things straight. The immediate impact was good enough, with young talent Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne and Christian Kirk leading the offence, and now Calvin Ridley has been added the the mix, they will be tough to stop. A soft division should give the Jags a great shot at a high playoff seeding. They would not have as much appeal if they played in any of the other divisions, but luckily for them, they don’t!
Check out our Super Bowl 58 predictions!
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