Mark Lammey
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With just 3 games left in the regular season, the world is still watching with bated breath for Aaron Judge to break the AL home run record. He tied former-Yankees Roger Maris with 61 last Wednesday, but has yet to hit another since. Judge will be taking on the Rangers on the road to try and do so either today or tomorrow. There’s just one afternoon game today, and it’s only fitting that it’s Judge and the Yankees. Along with this Aaron Judge breakdown, be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games.
Aaron Judge vs. Jon Gray: Will Aaron Judge hit a home run?
With the Yankees and Rangers being the only game going on this afternoon, all eyes will be on Judge as he takes the plate against Texas starter Jon Gray. They’re getting the day started early as they’ll be playing a doubleheader. Judge will be the very first at-bat of the day and it’s likely other broadcasts cut away to watch potential history. Speaking of history, Judge doesn’t have much of one against Gray. He’s just 0-for-1 against the former Rockie in 2 plate appearances as the other was a walk.
That’s been a theme for him recently, as no pitcher wants to be the one to allow the record-breaking homer. Although Judge hasn’t faced Gray often, he’s hit the Rangers well overall in his career. He has a .294 average against them and an incredible .635 slugging percentage. It’s also worth noting that Gray just allowed 6 runs off of 3 home runs in his last outing. He also missed a little over a month of the season due to injury. This is far from his matchup last night against their ace Perez, so let’s check out the best way to play Judge’s props for this first game of the doubleheader.
Be sure to check out our New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers predictions
How to bet on Aaron Judge’s props tonight
We’ve been having a similar approach ever since Judge first began his quest for number 62. That’s not due to lack of imagination, but rather the dependency of how pitchers are throwing to him. However, we are going to suggest a slight change for today’s game. Last night we suggested only playing any odds boosts as Judge was just 1-for-9 against Perez. Given the lesser caliber of starter with Gray, his straight home run prop is worth a play.
Those props have also been increasing in payout over the last few days, which we’ll have for you below. After the hype of his 61st homer, oddsmakers were not providing nearly as great of odds for him to break the record. After failing to do so for 4 straight games now, the value seems to be back. Just as we’ve also suggested the last few days, the ability to live bet would certainly be a benefit. If it’s clear Gray or any of the Rangers pitchers are pitching around Judge, a live play on his walk/HBP prop is certainly in play. With the doubleheader today, be sure to check back for updates for the second game of the day.
Also check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today – we’re 4-0 the past 2 nights!
Current Aaron Judge Home Run Odds at the top Sportsbooks
We’ve been keeping track of the previous odds since the start of the Orioles series over the weekend. Along with each of the current odds, you’ll find the odds from Friday through Monday with Friday being listed first.
FanDuel: +230 (+200, +230, +230, +260)
DraftKings: +215 (+250, +270, +285, +280)
Caesars: +220 (+215, +270, +280, +290)
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