Mark Lammey
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After tying the AL single-season record for home runs last Wednesday, Aaron Judge is still chasing the elusive number 62. He was unable to hit it over the weekend against the Orioles, and the Yankees now travel to Texas to take on the Rangers.
There are just 3 games left for Judge to break his current tie with former-Yankee Roger Maris. We’ve got a breakdown of his matchup today along with how to best play the props available. Along with this Aaron Judge breakdown, be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games.
Aaron Judge vs Martin Perez: Will Aaron Judge hit a home run?
Judge looked set to have a solid weekend given that 9 of his home runs this season came against the Orioles. However, a combination of strikeouts and pitchers throwing around him prevented him from hitting number 62. Friday was a great spot, we warned against it the last 2 days and unfortunately, tonight does not look to be the night either. Judge and the Yankees will be going up against the Rangers’ Martin Perez.
The lefty ace was a top candidate for the AL Cy Young earlier in the season, but that’s not even why it may be tough for Judge to break the record tonight. He’s just 1-for-9 against Perez and of course no pitcher wants to be the one to give up the record-breaking homer. That’s why Judge has been walking more than usual as well. The Rangers also have a bullpen that ranks just outside the top 10 in terms of overall ERA. However, there are still multiple ways to play Judge’s player props tonight.
Be sure to check out our New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers predictions
How to bet on Aaron Judge’s props tonight
We’re going to go with a similar philosophy as yesterday’s game. That means a Judge home run prop should be the play only if there is an odds boost. We still believe there’s value in that scenario given Judge’s performances against lefties overall. His numbers against Perez aren’t great, but he’s .269 with 14 homers and a .631 slugging percentages against lefties this season. Therefore, it’s still not out of the question for him to go deep tonight.
Another way to play Judge and his props tonight is the same way we’ve been suggested throughout the weekend. If you’re able to watch live, monitor if Perez or any other Rangers pitcher is clearly not giving him pitches to hit. Many sportsbooks offer props for a player to walk or get hit by pitch at great plus-money. To recap, odds boosts should be utilized with Judge’s success against lefties, but not at a straight play due to his lack of success against Perez. We’ll be sure to monitor boosts to update this article throughout the day.
If you enjoy other specific plays, check out our YFRI/NRFI best bets for today – we went 2-0 yesterday!
Current Aaron Judge home run odds at the top sportsbooks
We’ve been keeping track of the previous odds since the start of the Orioles series over the weekend. Along with each of the current odds, you’ll find the odds from Friday, Saturday and Sunday in that order.
FanDuel: +260 (+200, +230, +230)
DraftKings: +280 (+250, +270, +285)
Caesars: +290 (+215, +270, +280)
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