Are you missing baseball too? For those that don’t know me, hello! My name is Keith Schmelter and I was the most profitable MLB writer on the Pickswise staff last season. I finished +37.6 units on money line/run-line picks, +52.9 units on game totals, and +39.3 units (21-6-1) on three-star plays for Pickswise. I am a die-hard baseball fan with an even greater passion for statistics who loves to watch and bet on baseball. While the MLB is in a lockout, I will be analyzing every MLB team and giving my predictions for their 2022 season.
Last week I kicked things off by looking at the Tampa Bay Rays, and now I’ll be breaking down the New York Yankees. It was quite the up-and-down season for New York, so let’s dive into the good and the bad.
New York Yankees breakdown
2022 World Series odds: +900
2022 AL East odds: +185
2021 record: 92-70
2021 O/U record: 69-89-4
Key players in: Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Ben Rortvedt (C)
Key players out: Corey Kluber (SP), Clint Frazier (LF), Tyler Wade (2B), Rougned Odor (2B), Andrew Velazquez (SS), Chris Gittens (1B), Gary Sanchez (C), Gio Urshela (3B)
Story of last season
The Yankees were barely above .500 at the all-star break and it looked like New York was going to have another lackluster season, but they had one of their best second halves of a season since they won the World Series in 2009. They went 46-27 after the mid-summer classic and finished tied for second place in the division and faced their rival Boston in the AL Wild Card. With all the momentum on their side and Gerrit Cole on the mound for the Wild Card game, it seemed hard to fathom a loss. But a 6-2 defeat made for five straight years of a playoff exit and a lot of questions would arise this off-season.
Yet, the 2021 season was not a complete disaster for the Yankees as Aaron Judge had a career season with a .287 batting average and earned an All-Star nomination, Silver Slugger award, and finished fourth in the AL MVP vote. They also uncovered two solid starters in Jordan Montgomery (3.83 ERA) and Nestor Cortes Jr. (3.07 ERA as a starter) who will both play a significant role in New York’s success in 2022.
New York Yankees 2022 MLB season predictions
At the top of the to-do list for the Yankees this offseason was to acquire a shortstop. With less than three weeks until Opening Day, New York finally made the move as they traded for utility man Isiah Kiner-Falefa. The 26-year-old has started at catcher, second base, shortstop, and third base during his career so far he could be moved to second or third when Anthony Volpe arrives in the big leagues (ETA is 2023).
With Gio Urshela gone, an interesting solution to their problem at third base would be Matt Chapman, who has been linked to the Yankees in a few trade rumors lately. Chapman, a three-time gold glove winner at third base, could be unloaded this offseason as the Athletics seem to be trading away all their big pieces. The Yankees could also find a hole at first base if Anthony Rizzo finds a home somewhere else. Rizzo was being paid $16.5 million the last two seasons, but with Freddie Freeman asking for over $30 million a year, the 32-year-old Rizzo will likely be looking for a contract north of $20 million a year for around four years.
One aspect of the Yankees that they don’t need to worry about this off-season is their starting rotation. Yes, they lost Corey Kluber, but the 35-year-old isn’t the same pitcher he used to be (I know he threw a no-hitter in 2021, but keep in mind that it was against the Rangers) and Andrew Heaney who frankly stunk. The New York starting rotation ranked 10th in ERA in 2021 which was a slight increase from the year before and with the key parts of their rotation returning, we could see a solid 1-2-3 punch from the Yankees in the form of Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, and Jordan Montgomery.
If the Yankees fill their hole at first base, they could easily be a World Series contender. With one of the most dangerous lineups in the league when healthy, the Yankees pose a legitimate threat to win the AL East and beyond. It could be a four-team race for the AL East crown in 2022 (sorry Orioles) and the Yankees could very well be crowned division champs, but their World Series hopes rely on Aaron Judge building off his career season and their bullpen continuing to win them games.
You can find the Yankees to win it all anywhere from +900 to +1200 at the moment which I think is correctly priced, but if they re-sign Rizzo and get a productive season from Kiner-Falefa, then I would seriously consider them a championship contender.
Check out my team preview for the Tampa Bay Rays
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