What a game we have in store at Lumen Field. Both the Jets and Seahawks are fighting hard to keep their playoff hopes alive and defeat for either will mean elimination. The Jets have lost 5 of their last 6 games but can get in if they win out and the Dolphins beat the Patriots in the earlier Week 17 game. Will New York’s hopes of a first playoff appearance since 2010 remain intact? Our expert has their picks, predictions and best bets for this Jets vs Seahawks matchup.
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NFL New York Jets vs Seattle Seahawks expert predictions
The Jets know that nothing but victory here will see them eliminated from playoff contention. That in itself should be all the motivation this young team needs to take it to the Seahawks. Robert Saleh’s men will be boosted by the return of Mike White under center, who missed the past couple of games with a rib injury. With all of his receiving weapons available, White and this Jets team look primed to at least do their part in keeping their postseason hopes alive.
New York Jets vs Seattle Seahawks spread, odds & betting lines
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Point Spread: Jets -2, Seahawks +2
Total Points Over/Under: 42.5 points
Money Line Odds: Jets -130, Seahawks +110
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- Dolphins vs Patriots predictions
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- Panthers vs Buccaneers predictions
- Bears vs Lions predictions
- Steelers vs Ravens predictions
New York Jets vs Seattle Seahawks expert picks
We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for the clash between the Jets and Seahawks.
Jets vs Seahawks point spread pick: Jets -2 (-110)
For weeks I’ve been thinking about this scenario playing out. The Jets playoff hopes hanging by a thread with Geno Smith delivering the final knockout punch. The script writes itself, but Seattle’s play over the last few weeks has made this a tougher game to predict. With Mike White now firmly installed as the starting QB this week this line quickly moved from a pick’em to Jets -2.5 before some Seattle money entered the market mid-week. I know Mike White will play better than Zach Wilson did last Thursday, but that is an extremely low bar for what was one of the worst QB performances of the entire season. Geno’s production has also plateaued a bit. In Weeks 1-8 he had the 4th highest EPA+CPOE of any QB in the NFL, that ranking has dropped to 10th since Week 9. Again, not a huge dip, but it’s obvious there has been some regression. He has also been a little bit more careless with the ball, especially of late, committing the 2nd most turnover-worthy plays this season and 8 overall in the last 3 games, all 3 Seattle losses. The Seahawks’ offensive line is a big reason for the decline in production. After playing well for much of the season, injuries and ineffectiveness have become more prominent. Rookie RT Abraham Lucas was injured in the Chiefs game last week and his backup Stone Forsythe played poorly in relief. Seattle also rotated Gabe Jackson and Phil Haynes at RG, with neither playing well allowing a combined 6 pressures.
The Jets’ offensive line has been very shaky of late, as well, but they are facing a Seahawks defense this week which really struggles to generate pressure, and is 31st overall in pass rush win rate. The real crux of this handicap is the Jets defense, which is head and shoulders the best unit on the field in this game. The defensive line continues to play at an elite level, with a top 10 pressure rate despite blitzing at the 2nd lowest rate in the NFL. Translation, they can get pressure without committing extra guys in the box, which allows their secondary to play free and easy. The Jags exposed a bit of a flaw in that formidable defense last week attacking the flats and highlighting the short-passing game, withTrevor Lawrence recording his second-lowest aDOT of the season. We’ll see how Robert Saleh adjusts to that this week, it certainly helps they get an extra few days to prepare after playing last Thursday. Overall I trust Saleh’s stop unit to get off the field in key spots, and I pray for the health and safety of Mike White because the Jets’ offense is hopeless without him.
Be sure to check out our full Jets vs Seahawks predictions
Jets vs Seahawks Over/Under totals pick: Under 42.5 (-110)
Originally I was going to make the Jets my 2-star play in this game and the Under just a 1-star play, but some curious movement has pushed me towards the total. I was surprised to see it drop after Mike White was announced the starter earlier this week, opening at 44.5 on the lookahead and dipping to 42.5 at the time of publication. Obviously it doesn’t have as much value now as it did last week when it was higher than the key number of 44, but it’s obvious to me the market favors the under based on the move after White was confirmed in. If you dig into the trenches, this move makes more sense. Both offensive lines are in shambles right now — especially Seattle, which suffered a key injury at RT last week with Abraham Lucas going down against the Chiefs. His replacement Stone Forstyhe did not play well, allowing 3 pressures and being called for a penalty in relief. The Seahawks also rotated Gabe Jackson and Phil Haynes at RG but neither played well allowing a combined 6 pressures. The Jets’ defensive line is one of the deepest and most productive units in the NFL, generating pressure at a very high rate despite blitzing at the 2nd lowest rate in the league.
Overall, the Jets are 6th in DVOA and 3rd in weighted DVOA — which takes into account recent form. Their offensive line is also struggling, allowing 15 pressures against the Jags last week, 13 of which coming from the right side. I’m not sure the Seattle defense, which struggles to generate pressure this season and is 31st in pass rush win rate, will be able to take full advantage but I don’t see either offensive line creating a ton of movement in this game. The final push which got me to the window on the under in this game is the struggles both offenses are having in the red zone. The Jets are 28th this season in red zone TD scoring rate (46%) with the Seahawks not doing much better sitting at 22nd (52%). The Jets are also one of the best in the league at preventing touchdowns in the red zone, ranked 6th (51%) with Seattle struggling in that department ranked 26th (62%). If both teams are settling for field goals in the red zone more often than not, I feel confident this game will stay under.
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New York Jets vs Seattle Seahawks expert predictions
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