Andrew Wilsher
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The New York Jets equalled their 2021 win tally of last week with victory over the Packers to move to 4-2. Now they head to Mile High to take on a 2-4 Broncos team that has all sorts of issues on offense, and that’s without taking into consideration that quarterback Russell Wilson may miss the game through injury. Can the Jets continue to win, or will the Broncos be able to get their season back on track? Our NFL expert has picks, predictions and best bets for this matchup, so let’s break it all down.
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NFL Week 7 New York Jets vs Denver Broncos prediction
Plenty of analysts will have liked the Jets’ chances even before Russell Wilson’s health came into question, but if the signal-caller does indeed miss this game then the advantage could swing in New York’s favor. The Jets have been firing lately with their stout defense and superb run game, and that may be enough to get past a Denver team that is already struggling mightily to put points on the board.
New York Jets vs Denver Broncos spread, odds & betting lines
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Point Spread: Jets +1, Broncos -1
Total Points Over/Under: 39 points
Money Line Odds: Jets +100, Broncos -120
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Be sure to also check some of our other NFL Predictions articles for Week 7 below.
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New York Jets vs Denver Broncos expert picks
We’ve got 3 standout NFL picks for this week’s clash between the Jets and Broncos.
Jets vs Broncos point spread pick: Jets +1 (-110)
This bet becomes more valuable with each passing day that Broncos QB Russell Wilson trends towards sitting out with a hamstring injury and the Jets should close as the favorite if Brett Rypien ends up under center for the Broncos. The only issue I see is that actually might be a short-term upgrade for Denver considering how bad this offense has looked with Wilson at the helm. A lot of that falls on head coach Nathaniel Hackett’s shoulders as well, and we’ll see what kind of game plan he cooks up this week with a backup QB. It’s truly remarkable how poor of a record the Broncos have considering how well their defense is playing (2nd in EPA/play) and how many weapons their offense has on the outside. But their record is what it is, and right now it’s fair to say the Jets are playing better football.
New York’s ground game has been rejuvenated since QB Zach Wilson returned from injury, ranked 11th in success rate over the last 3 games compared to 31st in the first 3. Breece Hall looks like a perfect fit and OC Mike LaFleur is figuring out unique ways to get him the ball in space despite the Jets’ offensive line creating only the 16th-most line yards so far this season.
The return of veteran OT Duane Brown, who the Jets signed in the offseason to replace the injured Mekhi Becton, has solidified the left side of the offensive line. On the right, last year’s first-round pick Alijah Vera-Tucker has shifted out from guard to tackle with decent success over a small 2-game sample size. Both will be challenged this week in pass blocking against Baron Browning and Bradley Chubb. Denver’s defense has been better against the pass than the run this season, so look for New York to continue to establish their ground game early and often.
Be sure to check out our full Jets vs Broncos predictions
Jets vs Broncos Over/Under totals pick: Under 38.5 (-110)
The under is hitting at an alarming rate this season and it’s not because the defenses have any more advantage than in prior years. Overall I’m seeing a major dip on the quality of offensive play, especially coaching, and at the quarterback position. In this particular game, you have an elite defense in the Broncos and an improving Jets defense. Both teams have stars in the secondary anchoring their pass defense. Denver’s Patrick Surtain did not allow a reception in coverage against the Chargers, the second time this season he’s accomplished that. Meanwhile Jets rookie Sauce Gardner allowed just 1 reception on 8 yards against the Packers, the third time already this season he’s allowed 10 or fewer yards in coverage.
The clock should be moving at a steady pace throughout this game as the Jets look to continue to lean on their rejuvenated running attack with rookie RB Breece Hall leading the way. Denver has really struggled to run the ball this season with injuries and fumbling muddying the waters, but I can see them focusing on that strategy against a Jets defense that’s 26th in rushing success rate allowed and potentially a backup QB under center. If it is indeed Brett Rypien getting the nod this week for the injured Russell Wilson expect this total to dip even further before Sunday.
Jets vs Broncos player prop pick: Latavius Murray to score a touchdown (+255)
Not many points are expected in this Jets vs Broncos game, but one player that could find the end zone is Denver running back Latavius Murray. Although Melvin Gordon has been slated to start the game, Murray had a productive day last Monday with 15 carries for 66 yards against the Chargers. He might not see that many carries again, but Murray could make his presence felt again on Sunday afternoon, especially if Gordon struggles early on.
Even though the Jets pacified the Packers’ run game last week, it has been an area of weakness for their defense. New York allowed Raheem Mostert to go for 113 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins a couple of weeks back, and the week prior gave up another two rushing scores. With Russell Wilson banged up, expect the Broncos to focus on their ground game. At great odds, Murray looks an interesting proposition to score a touchdown.
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New York Jets vs Denver Broncos expert predictions
Be sure to check out all of our expert betting insight, analysis and even more NFL Predictions and NFL Best Bets from the rest of the Week 7 action.
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