Caleb Wilfinger
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The New York Jets and Cleveland Browns both entered the season with roster and quarterback turmoil. Things didn’t get any better for the Jets, as they enter this game with an 0-1 record, while the Browns are 1-0 to start the season. Our NFL expert has picks, predictions and a best bet for this AFC matchup, so let’s get into it.
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NFL Week 2 New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns prediction
The Jets were largely hapless on offense against the Ravens, but their defense did show some promise. On the other side, the Browns gutted out a tough victory in Carolina to start the season off with a win. While Cleveland’s offense struggled through the air, the Browns defense performed well in the win. The same could be said for the Jets, albeit in a blowout loss. Let’s take a look at the odds for Sunday’s contest.
New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns spread, odds & betting lines
Point Spread: Browns -6; Jets +6
Total Points Over/Under: 40.5 points
Money Line Odds: Browns -290, Jets 230
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New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns expert picks
We’ve got three standout NFL picks for this week’s clash between New York and Cleveland, including a 2-star selection for our against the spread selection.
Against the spread pick: Browns -6 (-110) over Jets
It’s hard to see how the Jets are going to move the ball effectively in this game considering their putrid pass blocking against the Ravens. While Baltimore’s defense is solid, Cleveland had the top pass-rush grade of any team in Week 1 according to PFF and will present a much stiffer challenge this week with Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney on the edge. Jets LT George Fant graded out okay against the Ravens, but 4th-round rookie RT Max Mitchell was a disaster, and both guys allowed multiple pressures. The right interior of the Jets offensive line is also subpar with Laken Tomlinson, who graded out very poorly in both the pass and run. Former first-round pick LG Elijah Vera-Tucker was the lone bright spot, but I don’t think that will be enough to keep Joe Flacco upright, especially considering his lack of mobility.
The part of this handicap I don’t like is the Browns’ offense scoring enough to cover the number. Jacoby Brissett had a negative EPA per play against the Panthers in Week 1 despite the Browns having a solid run game. Nick Chubb generated a 52% success rate against a solid Carolina front, but the Jets’ run defense held the Ravens to just 3.0 yards per carry last week and that seems to be the strength of their unit. The first line move after reopening was also towards the underdog from +6.5 to +6, so there was definitely some early support for the Jets in the market. For those reasons, Browns -6 doesn’t reach the status of a 3-star play, but I still think Cleveland wins the game and likely covers.
Be sure to check out our full New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns predictions
Over/Under totals pick: Under 40
This total has been trending down after the performances of both offenses last week. The Jets especially were outmanned in the trenches along the offensive line and we see a similar outcome this week against a much more talented Browns front featuring Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney on the edge.
Interior linebackers Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and Anthony Walker Jr. also graded out well for Cleveland against the Panthers. We think the Browns offense could struggle establishing the run against a Jets front that held the Ravens to 3.0 yards per carry last week, so the under looks the best play in Ohio.
Anytime touchdown scorer pick: Nick Chubb (-120)
Nick Chubb has long been the bell-cow for the Browns’ offense, and that certainly won’t change with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. The Browns are going to be a run-first offense on Sunday and Chubb should be the main beneficiary of that workload. Chubb received 22 carries in Week 1 and rushed for 144 yards as a result. While Chubb didn’t get a touchdown in Week 1, he certainly had opportunities to do so, and the game script should be advantageous for the Browns to keep the ball in Chubb’s hands. Cleveland should have the lead for most of the contest, keeping the ball on the ground, even in the red zone. We’re projecting plenty of touches inside the 20 for Chubb, so the value for his touchdown scorer prop is pretty solid.
Be sure to check out all of our expert betting insight, analysis and even more NFL Predictions and Best Bets from the rest of the Week 2 action.
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