Andrew Ortenberg
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We’ve got a jam-packed Week 11 slate with a ton of great matchups, including this classic AFC East rivalry showdown between the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills. Both sides are coming off disappointing losses in Week 10 and could really lose a win here to keep pace in the AFC playoff hunt.
Before we dive in, don’t forget to read all our other NFL Week 11 picks on sides and totals. And now let’s get right into this Jets vs Bills SGP.
Jets ML (+290)
Zach Wilson 250+ passing yards (+290)
Parlay odds: +964
We have a 2-leg Same Game Parlay, which pays out at almost 10/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
Jets ML (+290)
To start this Same Game Parlay we have the Jets on the money line. Buffalo has shown they certainly aren’t anything to be afraid of, and they’ve now lost three of their past four games. Even their recent wins have been unimpressive, like when they only beat the Giants at home because New York stalled on the 1-yard line in the closing seconds. The Jets walked away victorious the first time these teams played each other back in Week 1, and that was when the Bills looked a lot better than they do now.
This is also a short week for the Bills after they just lost to the Broncos on Monday Night Football, leaving them even more susceptible to an upset here. Things have gotten so bad in Buffalo that they just fired their OC Ken Dorsey on Tuesday, and now they’re changing play-callers on a short week with a seeming directive from head coach Sean McDermott to be more conservative.
Dorsey got scapegoated, but he was hardly the issue with this team. And I expect the offense to get less efficient after his departure. Josh Allen has thrown an interception in six straight games, and he isn’t running the ball nearly as much as he was last year. Sauce Gardner should be able to lock up Stefon Diggs, who seems to once again be getting frustrated with Buffalo. New York’s defense is good enough to ensure that they’re in every game in the waning minutes, so getting nearly 3/1 with them on the money line is always appealing.
Zach Wilson to have 250+ passing yards (+290)
When these two teams first played each other this season, it was a triumphant moment for Wilson. He had one of the best moments of his pro career when he faced the Bills back in Week 1, and now we need him to do it again. He was unexpectedly coming on in relief of an injured Aaron Rodgers in that game, so the coaching staff was pretty conservative, and I think he’ll let it rip even more here.
Wilson has thrown for 263 yards in back to back weeks, and has hit 240+ in four of his past six, so this certainly isn’t any sort of crazy number for him to get to. Especially not against a Buffalo defense that is far from what it used to be. The Bills are dealing with some key injuries on that side of the ball including to star cornerback Tre’Davious White, which has greatly hampered their pass defense.
Buffalo is allowing a 69.5 percent completion percentage this year, the third highest mark in the league. And Garrett Wilson is set to play through his elbow injury which is massive since he’s put up 80+ yards in four straight games now. Zach Wilson has been peppering him with targets, and without White out there the Bills are lacking a true number one corner to slow him down.
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