We’ve got a red-hot AFC East divisional matchup here as the Buffalo Bills host the New York Jets. The Jets had the Bills’ number when these teams met at MetLife Stadium last month, and will look to continue their playoff push behind quarterback Mike White and their red-hot defense. As for the Bills, they have their sights set on the top seed in the AFC with Josh Allen looking to secure another win. Who will come out on top? Our NFL expert gives their picks, predictions and best bets for this big game.
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NFL Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets expert predictions
The Jets beat the Bills outright last month, yet New York is still a 10-point underdog for this game in Buffalo. The key in that last game was the Jets’ defense shutting down Josh Allen. If they can do that again, then it will be tough for the Bills to secure a dominant win.
Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets spread, odds & betting lines
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Point Spread: Jets +10, Bills -10
Total Points Over/Under: 43 points
Money Line Odds: Jets +370, Bills -460
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Be sure to check out the rest of our NFL Week 14 predictions:
- Browns vs Bengals predictions
- Eagles vs Giants predictions
- Ravens vs Steelers predictions
- Chiefs vs Broncos predictions
Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets expert picks
We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for the clash between the Bills vs Jets.
Bills vs Jets point spread pick: Jets +10 (-110)
These two AFC East rivals faced off in Week 9, and the Jets were victorious as the underdog. However, New York will look different this time around as Mike White will be at quarterback instead of Zach Wilson. The Jets are 1-1 with White at quarterback and nearly made a 4th quarter comeback against the Vikings last week, so it seems his job is safe for the near future. He has thrown for over 300 yards in back-to-back weeks and Garrett Wilson has seen his usage skyrocket under White as he has 23 targets, 13 receptions and 157 yards. Fortunately for New York, they will also be getting Michael Carter back, who missed Week 13 with an ankle injury. Their offense has been exponentially better with White under center, and since they are playing for their playoff lives, I expect them to come out hot.
Buffalo beat New England in Week 13’s edition of Thursday Night Football, but it wasn’t a huge accomplishment since the Patriots’ offense is miserable. And in a bigger sample size, the Bills have not been playing their best football recently. In Weeks 9 to 12, they nearly lost to the Lions, started slowly against the Browns, and lost to the Vikings and Jets. Josh Allen has been playing well through a UCL injury, but Buffalo got some bad news on Wednesday that Von Miller is out for the rest of the season. That is a tough break for their defense which has shown some flaws in recent weeks and has given me enough worries that Buffalo is getting too many points on the spread this week. The Jets beat the Bills with Wilson at quarterback a few weeks ago, so I think White can keep this game close enough to cover the big spread.
Be sure to check out our full Jets vs Bills predictions
Jets vs Bills Over/Under totals pick: Under 43 (-110)
Buffalo in the winter means one thing: snow. That’s the forecast for Sunday’s game in Orchard Park, as a few inches of snow are due mixed with 10-15 MPH winds. That will likely diminish the offensive output from both teams. The market has slowly started to adjust to the weather as the total opened at 45 but quickly dropped to as low as 43.5 in some places by Wednesday. For that reason, I’ll hop on the under before it gets too low.
The New York secondary has looked excellent in the second half of the season, and that includes their win over Buffalo, in which they picked off Allen twice. These two above-average defenses combined with a high chance of precipitation make me lean towards a lower-scoring game, which would bode well for the Jets +9.5 pick. If New York will stay close enough to cover the spread, it likely won’t be through a shootout, but more likely a score similar to the Jets’ 20-17 win in Week 9. I’ll lean with the under on Sunday afternoon.
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