Ricky Dimon
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Best Bet – To Miss the Playoffs (-350)
Worst Bet – To Win the AFC East (+600)
Good news: despite what their recent win totals would suggest, the New York Jets are on their way up. Bad news: they are still a year away (and maybe more, depending on their own progress and perhaps to an even greater extent on outside factors such as how long New England quarterback Tom Brady continues to play at a GOAT level). Second-year signal-caller Sam Darnold is still developing; early returns in his rookie season were inconclusive. The USC product was picked off 15 times in 13 games while throwing 17 touchdowns and completing 57.7 percent of his attempts. Darnold and the Jets stumbled to a 4-12 record after the team had compiled back-to-back 5-11 marks.
He will be handing off the ball to a new face in former Steeler Le’Veon Bell. The disgruntled veteran moved on from Pittsburgh after sitting out all of the 2018 campaign and the hope is that he will be reinvigorated playing in the green and white. When healthy and motivated, Bell can be one of the best running backs in the business. Even if the 27-year-old does not immediately return to an MVP level, he should vastly improve an offense that was 29th overall in the NFL (26th rushing, 25th passing) last year.
Perhaps the biggest change in New York is transitioning from a defensive-minded head coach in Todd Bowles (now coordinator with the Buccaneers) to an offensive guru in Adam Gase, previously with the Dolphins. Gase went 23-25 in three seasons at the helm in Miami.
Jets Win Total: O/U 7 Wins
Can the Jets jump all the way from four to seven (or eight if they want to go over instead of push)? It’s possible, but to say it’s unlikely would be an understatement. There will likely be more than a few growing pains in 2019 with a new head coach, new running back, a QB who is still raw, and a defense that was ranked 25th in the league last year (26th against the run, 24th against the pass).
As for the schedule, New York faces New England twice in the first seven weeks in addition to Philadelphia and Dallas. It lightens up thereafter, but in how big of a hole will Gase find his club? This is tough, but I’m taking the Under. I think the worst I’ll come out on that play is a push, as eight wins are too much to expect. That would be double what New York won in 2018.
Odds to Make the Playoffs: Yes +275, No -350
I don’t care what a team did during the offseason; getting only +275 odds on making the playoffs just one year after it went 4-12 is not something over which you jump for joy. You shy away from it is what you do. Sure, the Jets will be better on defense with a front line that includes nose tackle Quinnen Williams and end Leonard Williams. Quinnen was taken No. 3 overall and he has a big frame (6’3’’, 295 pounds) to go along with an even bigger personality. However, New York may not be strong enough at linebacker or in the secondary to make a serious jump up the NFL’s defensive rankings. The juice on “No” should be even bigger than -350, because this team can once again schedule tee times for early January. The value here is strong.
Odds to Win the AFC East: +600
The sun rising every day…. Christmas coming once a year…. The Patriots being favored to win the AFC East…. Those are things of which you can be absolutely certain. New England is always favored and almost always takes care of business. But let’s say for some unforeseen reason New England stumbles. Would the Jets be that trendy of a pick and swoop in for the spoils? I don’t think so. If they were, that really shouldn’t be the case. Buffalo and Miami aren’t much worse than New York and might even be better. The Jets have not won it since 2002 and have not even appeared in the postseason since 2010. At a measly +600, this is a terrible bet. They aren’t going to win the division and probably won’t come close.
Odds to Win the AFC Championship: +2500
The sample size is small, of course, but nothing suggests that Darnold is suddenly going to lead New York to a Super Bowl in year two. Although Bell is a Super Bowl-caliber running back, he does not have the necessary talent nor the necessary experience around him.
New England won’t be going away even though Rob Gronkowski is gone, as Brady and head coach Bill Belichick are still running the show. Plus, you also have teams like the Chiefs, Chargers, Ravens, and the Colts hanging around. There is no real reason to think the Jets are sniffing the Super Bowl next season; +2500 also isn’t a good enough reason.
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +5000
I suppose if the Jets somehow make it to Miami they could actually win the thing. So I hate this play less than I hate an AFC Championship, but it still isn’t enticing. Other than Bell, New York’s most talented players have not yet hit their prime and obviously have never even played a single playoff game.
Bell will help Darnold and the overall passing game immensely as one of the best pass-catching running backs in the league. But a stable of receivers led by Jamison Crowder, Quincy Enunwa, and Robby Anderson is unproven at best. This group probably isn’t ready to reach the playoffs and it is nowhere near a Super Bowl level. That’s not to say the future isn’t bright; it is. But the present is mediocre. Don’t do anything stupid with the Jets for at least another year. Betting on them to win the Super Bowl would, of course, be stupid.
